Securities Analysis: Bull Market "Get Off"

　　 Societe Generale Securities: bull market Don't get off.

Remind investors not to get out of the bull market. The biggest motivation of the bull market in this round of debt market is from the shrinking of the demand side of financing rather than the relaxation of policy. Moreover, the downward trend of the current economy is more likely to be pulled down by the potential growth rate. Under the constraint of debt, the financing cost of entities is still high. The process of economic slowdown is not over yet. The future leverage rate is likely to show a structural decline, which will further push the risk-free interest rate to a further downtrend and make a static pricing based on the cost of capital. In essence, if we think that the downward trend of the economy is the result of the rebalancing of the economic structure, China's current rate of return is much lower than that of the past. The bottom of the risk-free interest rate in theory is also downward. In the past several rounds of big bull market, the yield of the 10 year treasury bond is lower than 3%.

　　 Shenyang Wanguo Securities: adjustment is Opening opportunity

On Wednesday, the market is still largely disturbed by the expected data, and the market has repeatedly shown that market divergence is increasing. On Wednesday, spot bond yields rebounded 4-8bp, and the biggest volatility in the day exceeded 10bp again. However, the yield of AA+/AA short and medium ticket is basically flat, or even slightly down. As our weekly report said, on the one hand, in the second stage of the bull market, the market volatility will be larger than before. On the other hand, the relatively high rate of absolute return is still a better choice.

In the short term, with the rapid downtrend of the pre interest rate and near the end of the year, there will be a wave of profit taking in the bond market, and interest rates will fluctuate. As an investor, in the current stage, we should look at the market volatility in bull market thinking. This means that we can make a profit, but we can not easily lose our main position, which means that adjustment is not a pessimistic adjustment. This is totally different from bear market thinking. Or in that case, the bull market trend is not terrible.

　　 Guotai Junan Securities: Short-term Increased volatility

The following important factors may exacerbate the volatility of the short-term market: first, the absolute return on interest rate debt is approaching the limit position of the central line, and the profit motive power of the institution is strong. At present, the 10 year treasury bonds, the non state open policy bonds and the national bond yields are respectively at the 2009, up to 46%, 28%, and 25% percentile levels, and the bond market is already showing signs of "bubble". Under such circumstances, market sentiment began to become fragile and sensitive to "wind and grass". Second, October financing data or super market expectations. Third, the stock market performance is eye-catching, causing major asset allocation transformation concerns. The recent performance of the stock market has been eye-catching and the bond market has taken the bull at the same time. Historically, the stock debt double cow time generally does not exceed three months, the stock market continues to rise causes the big class asset allocation transformation will not be advantageous to the bond market. In recent days, the continuous pullback of treasury bond futures is likely to be the "signal" of the adjustment of the bond market. Investors are advised to temporarily avoid the risk of falling market and reduce the positions of medium and long term interest rate debt / high-grade credit debt, waiting for a new admission time.