Body: Loose Bull Market

　　 State Securities:

Waiting for new Catalyzer

Although the central bank's three quarter monetary policy report hinted at reluctance to carry out radical easing, such as interest rate cuts and RRR, the disclosure of the 3 month 3.5% interest rate MLF's base currency of 769 billion 500 million yuan still has a strong sense of quantity and price easing. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has continued to create new types of liquidity tools, not only putting liquidity into play, but also maintaining a steady growth of the basic currency, and meeting the requirements of "directional regulation". We expect full rate cuts to happen next year. We need to examine the real estate capital chain, overseas economic and financial situation and global capital flows. At present, bond market prices are stable, and economy and prices continue to descend. There are still no obvious risk factors. But 10 years. Treasury bond interest rate We have fallen below the lower limit of the previous 3.6%-3.7% interval, and we expect that interest rates will fluctuate in a short period of time, waiting for the trigger factor to break the deadlock.

　　 BOC Securities:

Bull market

Judging from the position of the central bank, the future will still try to use directional tools to regulate. Mobility Reduce financing costs and guide capital flows. The central bank's constant "micro stimulus" may keep investors optimistic about the bond market, and in the current situation, economic growth and inflation are not out of the downward pressure, and the bull market will last longer. The interest rate debt may also have a downward space for 50BP. It is suggested that the long-term debt and treasury bonds such as state bonds should be allocated at the end of the year. The interest rate strategy of the credit bonds is a preferable way to make profits. The industrial debt will choose the rating of AA, which not only takes into account the income but also faces greater risks. The new Zengcheng investment bond will become a scarce market. The overall risk is not high, and the demand is expected to be better.

　　 First venture securities:

The bull market can be extended to the end of the year.

Although the recent yield has gone down sharply again, we believe that the bull market can continue to the end of the year. On the one hand, it is expected that the data on industry, consumption and investment that will be announced this week will continue to decline, and even if the credit data are more optimistic, it is only the response of the central bank to large-scale liquidity. It is unlikely that the expected situation will happen. On the other hand, the rising lending weighted interest rate shown in the three quarter monetary policy report still exerted great pressure on easing monetary policy. The low inflation continued to provide room for monetary policy easing. In the year, the central bank will continue to invest liquidity through innovative tools and reduce the open market interest rate, thereby creating conditions for the return of yields.

　　 Guotai Junan Securities:

Trading plates need to leave in time.

The reverse strategy is better than momentum strategy, and the policy market should push the trading market to leave in time. At present, the core of the market transaction is the relaxation of the central bank's policy once again, such as lowering interest rates, reducing interest rates, reducing the repo rate, etc., and even the marginal improvement signals of the fundamentals have been selectively ignored. With the market's easing of monetary policy expectations consistent, and reflected in the price, the market needs new driving force to further increase the space. In the short term, investors should adopt a reverse investment strategy, and the profit of "high dumping and low absorption" will be higher than that of "catching up and selling down".