Chen Shi: Bull Market Is Still Advancing In The First Wave.

Last week, we put forward, first, because the mainstream blue chips represented by financial stocks and the start of cyclical stocks represented by steel stocks symbolized China. equity market Being structured bull market Turn into a bull market. Second, the first round of the bull market has risen since the 2000 point. Last week, the first rise of the first wave has begun. Third, driven by blue chips such as bank shares, it is likely to break through 2444 points and take 2500 as the next goal. This week, after the concussion, it conquered 2444 points and hit a new high of 2454 points. Although the closing point failed to stand firm above 2444 points, the new high has already appeared, and it has hit a new high in the past two years, indicating that the bull market has been further established.

This bull market has been accompanied by serious differences. The main logic of the empty side is that the economy does not support the rise of the stock market, but the market trend covers everything, and the stock market has reached a new high of more than two years. It has been confirmed that the logic of the empty side is not in the Chinese stock market at present. Actually, Chinese and foreign stock market The important bottom is formed when the fundamentals such as economy are the worst, because the fear of human nature tends to imagine the future very badly, and the stock price will reflect this pessimistic expectation ahead of time. When the bear market reaches its limit and builds up after a long time, the stock price will gradually reflect the optimistic expectations for the future under the influence of many factors. The start of the current bull market comes from optimistic expectations of transformation and reform. For example, the recent "overseas four trillion plan" is just a plan, but good expectations have spawned a surge of big bear stocks such as steel and infrastructure, which have been adjusted for 7 years. So though everything is just beginning, the expected strength has already started the first wave of the bull market. In addition, the serious overfall in the past 7 years is a good technical foundation, coupled with the leveraging of financing leverage funds to jointly promote the rise of the stock market.

So it can be said that this year, the three factors of policy, technology and capital resonate, arousing the bull market of China's stock market. This is the essence of the current bull market.

We say that this bull market starts with a structural bull market and gradually shifts to a comprehensive bull market. The sign of the full bull market is the start of mainstream blue chips and cyclical stocks. From the recent market performance, brokerage stocks have entered a strong trend, and the trend is completely reversed. Financial stocks such as banks and insurance have just started, and some varieties such as Bank of Nanjing have set an example in the past 4 years. But the overall rise of financial stocks is small, valuations are still at a historic low. In the cyclical industry, iron and steel, ports, electricity, shipping, infrastructure and other sectors have basically come out of the bear market. At present, coal, coloured and so on are still in the lower area. It can be seen that the blue chips actually began to strengthen, and they were in the bottom area as a whole. On Friday, bank stocks rose again and pushed the index to a new high, but the index's rise triggered a threat of high inflation. Cyclical stocks also affected sentiment and led to a sharp fall in the market. This trend actually shows that the market is orderly and controllable, and has not entered the overall excitement, which is the performance of the market will continue. In fact, we have been worried that the rise of bank stocks will pull the index too high and shorten the market cycle. However, the bull market of bank shares has also started, depending on the pace of growth.