Fu Neng Shares (600483):2019 Business Data Review In The First Three Quarters

The company disclosed operating data in the first three quarters of 2019: in the three quarter of 2019, the power plants of the company completed the generating capacity of 4 billion 955 million kwh on the basis of the consolidated statements, up 22.78% compared to the same period last year, and completed the 4 billion 700 million kilowatt hour of Internet sales, up 23.25% over the same period last year. In the first three quarters of 2019, the generating capacity was 13 billion 932 million kwh, an increase of 8.92% over the same period last year. The net electricity consumption reached 13 billion 207 million kwh, an increase of 8.84% over the same period last year.

Affected by the three quarter hydropower output is not ideal, six power plants increased significantly. The company's thermal power generation in the three quarter totaled 4 billion 464 million kwh, up 20.36% over the same period last year. Among them, Hongshan thermoelectric power plant completed 2 billion 21 million kwh, down 0.88%; Jinjiang gas power completed 913 million kilowatt hours (excluding alternative electricity), with an increase of 63.62%; six power plants completed 1 billion 467 million kilowatt hours, the same increase of 39.18%, mainly due to poor water supply in the three quarter, resulting in hydropower output is not ideal, the effect of thermal power has been reduced. Thermal power generation in the first three quarters of the company totaled 12 billion 521 million kwh, an increase of 8.6%. Among them, the Hongshan thermal power plant completed 5 billion 352 million kilowatt hours of electricity, the same increase of 6.52%; Jinjiang gas power generation capacity of 1 billion 205 million kilowatt hours (excluding alternative electricity), the same increase of 3.6%; six power plants completed 4 billion 873 million kilowatt hours, the same increase of 13.7%. In addition to the drop in the price of electricity and gas in Jinjiang (0.5957 yuan / kWh to 0.5906 yuan / kWh), the electricity price of other branches is the same as that of 18 years. In the first three quarters, the company completed the 2 billion 178 million kwh of alternative electricity (the annual quota was 2 billion 490 million kwh, and the total electricity consumption was 1 billion 558 million kwh last year).

In the three quarter, wind power generation increased significantly, and Shicheng sea wind project was partly installed and put into production to contribute to generating capacity. The company's three quarter (flat wind) wind power generation capacity was 478 million kwh, an increase of 51.75%. Among them, Funeng new energy achieved 451 million kilowatt hours of electricity, the same increase of 48.84%; Jinjiang gas power to achieve 19 million kilowatt hours of wind power generation, an increase of 58.33%. In the first three quarters of the company, the wind power generation capacity was 1 billion 374 million kwh, an increase of 11.89%. Among them, Funeng new energy achieved 1 billion 301 million kilowatt hours of electricity, the same increase of 11.01%; Jinjiang gas power to achieve 65 million kilowatt hours of wind power generation, an increase of 16.07%. The price of wind power and electricity on every company is flat with that in 18 years. At the end of the three quarter, the Shicheng offshore wind power project was put into operation. Some units contributed 8 million kwh of offshore wind power, and the Internet price was 0.85 yuan / kWh (including tax). The installation of offshore wind power projects in the remaining units of Shicheng project and Ping Hai F area is expected to continue to be put into operation in batches in the next two years to enhance the performance of wind power business.

The first three quarters of the company's heating business volume and price rise. The company's heating capacity in the three quarter was 167.3 tons, the same increase of 25.4%, and the increase was mainly from Hongshan thermoelectric power plant. Among them, the heating capacity of Hongshan thermoelectric plant was 124.85 tons, the same increase of 33.57%, and the heating capacity of longan thermoelectric power station was 42.46 tons, which increased by 6.28%. Hongshan thermoelectric heating average price of 151.74 yuan / ton, the same increase of 0.54%; longan thermoelectric average price of 195.49 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.45%. The first three quarters of the company's heating capacity was 460.82 tons, an increase of 23.39%. Among them, the heating capacity of Hongshan thermoelectric plant was 342.87 tons, the same increase of 29.23%, and the heating capacity of longan thermoelectric power station was 117.95 tons, which increased by 9.07%. The average price of Hongshan thermoelectric heating is 152.35 yuan / ton, the same increase of 1.3%. The average heating price of longan thermoelectric power is 193.7 yuan / ton, the same increase 0.58%.

Ningde nuclear power equity acquisition is in an orderly manner. In August 1, 2019, the company announced that it would like to buy its 10% stake in Ningde nuclear power as a way to buy assets through issuing shares. Because Ningde nuclear power assets are relatively high quality and the purchase price is reasonable (premium 23.47%), the acquisition has no negative effect on EPS at the same time as the performance of the thickening company. In October 8, 2019, the company received the CSRC administrative license application form issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and decided to accept the application for the administrative license.

Earnings forecast and Valuation: with the orderly advance of Ningde nuclear power equity acquisition, the offshore wind power (Shicheng, Ping Bay F area) projects are gradually put into operation and the flexibility of the thermal power business under the coal price, we expect that the company's performance will continue to grow significantly in the next three years, and the company expects to achieve net profit of 13.93, 16.31, and 1 billion 908 million yuan in 2019-2021 years.

Risk hints: uncertainties in the prices of raw materials such as coal and natural gas; uncertainties in wind power subsidy policies; uncertainties in the utilization hours of wind power.