PTA Trend Gradually Into Calm After The PTA Is Expected To Stabilize

After experiencing a bit of an earlier shock, the trend of PTA has gradually calmed down. After the weakening of the tide of funds, the fundamentals will take the lead again. After that, PTA is expected to stabilize, and then the small band will rebound.

As far as the current position is concerned, the short selling power has begun to weaken significantly, and the main players' profits are quite good. They are gradually making profits. The main positions of the short positions have begun to decline sharply, and a large number of short refunds may cause a rebound in the PTA price.

Prices are running smoothly.

Although crude oil prices fluctuated greatly, PX maintained a relatively stable price level as a whole, and its price difference with naphtha also maintained at a higher level, which made PX profits quite good and objectively provided strong support for PTA prices.

Before the oil market burst, oil producing countries cut their output sharply, the output continued to record high, and the US crude oil inventory data increased significantly, making the oil market plunge into a pessimistic pessimistic atmosphere, making the US crude oil continued to bear down to a minimum of US $42 / barrel.

But throughout the crude oil market, the above bad news has been gradually digested by the market, and the possibility of continued deterioration in the market is less likely.

It can be said that the oil price of 40 US dollars / barrel is not the ideal price of the oil producing countries. For the main oil producing countries that regard oil revenues as the lifeblood of the economy, they are unwilling to return to the bitter days of the past low oil prices.

Although the differences between the oil producing countries appear to be difficult to bridge, they are actually seeking more benefits under the premise of reducing production. The market outlook is slowly returning to the probability of pushing down the production trajectory. I think it is very likely that the positive attitude of production reduction will be gradually released before the OPEC formal meeting in November 30th, so that oil prices can be saved from the pessimistic market atmosphere at present so as to promote the rebound of oil prices.

PTA for a few months to achieve a small inventory.

Although the market generally believes that PTA supply and demand is not ideal, but in recent months, PTA has quietly achieved a slightly smaller demand, of which the supply gap in September was near 90 thousand tons, and the supply gap in October was nearly 140 thousand tons.

Before the end of the month, there is no obvious overhaul plan for PTA and PET plant. If the current operating rate is kept to the end of the month, it will continue to achieve PTA's small inventory in November.

Going to inventory for more than a month will save PTA's rebound.

Downstream polyester production and marketing is good.

although

The operating rate has been maintained at a relatively high level, but the start-up rate of the downstream looms has remained relatively high. The inventory level of the polyester plant is generally low, and the availability of merchantable specifications is still tight.

At the same time, the rising price of polyester raw material MEG has further stimulated the purchasing enthusiasm of the bomb and weaving enterprises.

Polyester filament supply and demand fundamentals are good, will also play a positive role in the rise of PTA.

In addition, the pace of shorting industrial funds has also slowed sharply.

Although PTA's strategy of "locking price difference" in the futures market has been tested frequently, the current position is not ideal.

Moreover, even in the recent period of high PTA prices, the increase in PTA sales and warehouse receipts has been slowing sharply, showing signs of weakness.

Combined with the improvement of PTA supply in recent months, PTA manufacturers may reduce the strategy of "locking price difference" in the futures market, so that the price of PTA will rebound.