Cotton Can Not Be Left Alone. The Overall Supply And Demand Is Loose.

Recently, the external market has been bad for cotton market.

First, from the position of Trump and the Federal Reserve, the US economy is accelerating. In December, the expectation of increasing interest rates is becoming more and more intense. The trend of commodities is to be discussed. Secondly, with the futures exchanges and relevant departments increasing the restrictions on the speculation of commodity futures such as black cotton and cotton, the funds of the Zhengzhou period have been closed out one by one, and the futures and spot are pushing each other and leveraging each other's hope. Thirdly, from the time perspective, after March 2017, the relevant departments of the state will restart the reserve cotton wheel, and the estimate from the scale is likely to be 2 million tons, and the sale time for Xinjiang cotton in 2016/17 is only 6 months.

There are not many stocks left in the early stage of spinning enterprises.

However, the price of railway pportation has increased and pport capacity is tight.

There is also a shortage of steam pportation. On the one hand, logistics providers are more inclined to fruit pport with larger profit margins. On the other hand, the cost of freight pportation is higher than that of the railway by 300 yuan, which makes it difficult for enterprises to bear.

In addition, in September this year, "the most stringent overloading order" in history has been strictly enforced since the publication of the "vehicle restriction".

So we see that in the past two months, the output of Xinjiang cotton has decreased by 6.

The annual auction of national savings is held in 3-8.

Rely entirely on

The supply period is mainly in 10-2 months.

Looking at the supply and demand situation over the past few months, Chen cotton stocks are on the low side, 300 thousand tons, and the new cotton output is 4 million 600 thousand tons. At this stage, imports are calculated at 50% tons in the whole year, about 450 thousand tons; demand is up to now, about 200 thousand tons of new cotton sales are sold, 620 thousand tons per month, and 2 million 500 thousand tons in the remaining 4 months. The national storage ring is calculated to be 800 thousand tons according to the maximum amount of the previous announcement, and the supply is 30+460+45=545 million tons and the demand is 20+250+80=350 million tons.

By the end of February, inventory reached 545-350=195 million tons, and supply and demand were loose at this stage.

The post market will enter the dumping and storage stage, which will measure the incomplete certainty risk of storing and throwing time in the country, plus the slow throw and slow progress. If the supply rate is about 530 thousand tons per month according to the speed of this year's delivery, the demand will be calculated according to 620 thousand tons, and the demand for 100 thousand tons of monthly output will need new cotton. This part also needs 500 thousand tons, and the annual turnover of commercial cotton will be 1 million 450 thousand tons.

In fact, the market supply and demand before February were loose.

The current phase of the rise is mainly due to the contradiction between the stocking of spinning enterprises and the tight pport capacity in Xinjiang, resulting in a short supply and demand situation.

The cotton market is strong in the short term and not too high.

At present, the price of cotton is soaring. The analysis is much more difficult than the pportation of Xinjiang cotton, and the continuous tension of pportation forces affects the supply of cotton in the mainland textile enterprises. Compared with the strong price of cotton, viscose staple fiber is no longer able to support, the market rigid demand is insufficient, the price is too high and the components are too high, and the fall is increasing, leading to the price decline in November.

According to the Hebei Lu Yu area, the price of raw materials this Wednesday is: Xinjiang cotton is 16500 yuan / ton, polyester staple fiber is 7700 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber is 15100 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the overall textile market situation in Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces has been grim. The overall orders have not changed significantly.

Affected by the general rise in raw material prices, orders are more difficult, and orders from downstream are more cautious. Otherwise, the bigger the list, the worse the price, the more losses will be.

The yarn market itself is not enough, and in the short term, the top and bottom pressure on the market will affect the profit of conventional varieties. The stock pressure is increasing. The days of spinning enterprises are very sad.

According to the situation of weaving factories in some areas of Hebei, the situation is even more serious. In order to control the haze in winter, all the manufacturers of coal fired boilers need to be discontinued, resulting in such factories as sizing mills, weaving mills and dyeing factories, which can not continue to produce, but can only stop working and go out of business. The closure of downstream manufacturers will directly affect the sales of the branch mills.

This is nothing more than adding insult to injury.

The purchase price of some cotton merchants within the standard grade cotton is 14700-14750 yuan / ton (fixed settlement), which is very attractive to the cotton picking enterprises within the territory. On the one hand, the comprehensive cost of lint is generally over 15500 yuan / ton, on the other hand, it is difficult to solve the "bottleneck" of Xinjiang cotton's Xinjiang cotton pportation capacity in the short term. The high vacuum of the high quality and high quality cotton in the mainland market will further push up the cotton price expectation.

Although the author also recognizes the possibility that short-term Zheng and spot will be back up, the two will break through 16000 yuan / ton, which seems to have little resistance (spot refers to "double 28/ double 29" lint), but the height of the rebound is relatively limited, and the ginning factory and cotton enterprises must seize the right time and do not miss the sale of the price.