Rumors Of Export Tax Rebates On Garments Affected &Nbsp And Cotton Prices Went Down.

Zhengzhou commodity exchange, March 29th

Rumors fell

Liu Qing, an analyst at new lake futures, pointed out that in recent years, there were more rumors about the export tax rebates for garment exports in the domestic market.

Reporters also learned that since last week, cotton tax free imports have been spread on the market. The value added tax of agricultural products and food related processing industries will be reduced to 3% to 5%, and the textile and garment export tax rebate rate will be reduced from 11% to 6%.

But Liu Qing analysis, up to now, there is no real bad interest in Cotton City, and after digestion of bad rumors, cotton prices tend to reflect the fundamentals.

In March 29th, the 1109 contract of zhengmian main force reached 376860 hands, which was warmer than that in March 28th.

However, for the current fundamentals, analysts are not optimistic about short-term cotton prices.

Demand is not good enough.

Analysts believe that the weak cotton prices and cotton market demand is not strong.

Liu Qing analyzed that the deep adjustment of Zheng cotton was a concentrated reflection of the release of no effective demand.

She found that the demand for cotton is in the peak season, but the demand for downstream cotton industry is not booming.

"The average inventory of downstream textile mills has increased to more than one month. This level is higher than that of the previous peak season, and the inventory growth rate is accelerating. In the first two months, the average inventory of textile mills remained within one month.

The paction from the downstream manufacturers also confirms this feature, and the paction is relatively light. "

Shanghai mid-term futures analyst also expressed his approval.

He pointed out that from the supply situation, the supply and demand of cotton in the future will be improved.

Recently, the cotton release intentions report released in 2011 showed that the intention of planting cotton in 2011 has resumed growth, and the area is expected to rise to 78 million 270 thousand mu, up nearly half of that in 2010.

Among them, the three cotton areas all showed a recovery growth trend.

The report analyzed that the average price of seed cotton in 2010 was 10.94 yuan / kg, up to 73.4% due to the sharp rise in seed cotton prices in 2010, which is conducive to the restoration of cotton planting area.

Since January 2011, cotton prices have continued to rise. In February, the price of seed cotton rose to 11.5 yuan / kg, which greatly increased the 20% cotton reserves and further stimulated cotton picking up.

If the cotton planting area increases, the cotton supply and market forecast for the new year will be ensured.

Cotton prices in 2011 will not repeat the sharp rise in the supply shortage in 2010.

Market outlook will rebound

If demand is not strong, cotton prices will rebound.

Liu Qing pointed out that before the obvious improvement in downstream consumption, it was suggested that investors should keep the idea of partial operation, and futures prices would continue to decline in the short term.

So, has cotton price reversed the trend? Market participants point out that cotton prices have little room to fall.

It is pointed out that although the intention to plant cotton in 2011 showed a resumption of growth in cotton planting intentions, but due to the limitation of cultivated land area, there was no possibility of a significant increase in the cotton supply and demand gap.

"Cotton prices will not change at a high level, and mid and long-term cotton prices will run above 25000 yuan per ton."

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Liu Qing pointed out that cotton prices should be divided into short term and medium and long term.

In the short term, market demand has not yet started, but it is not yet clear in the medium to long term. Investors should pay close attention to whether spot prices follow the downward trend of futures prices and the warming up of downstream orders.

See thunder thunder said that the cotton price exploration and Japan's nuclear crisis is not completely relieved also has relations, "market investor mentality is still unstable, the main funds do not dare to long line to do more."

At present, it is the time when the Japanese garment processing factories sign annual orders to China. However, at present, the order signing has been delayed by the Japanese earthquake and the nuclear crisis. Many Japanese apparel retailers are still in a state of closure. The market participants believe that the Japanese nuclear crisis will bring a negative impact on the textile and garment market in the near future. But in the medium to long term, with the recession of Japan's nuclear crisis, Japan's demand for home textiles and clothing will rebound, and there will be a process of making up orders in the future, which will support the rebound of domestic cotton prices.

Seeing that the callback of cotton prices is temporary in time and limited in space, cotton prices will remain high and volatile in the future.