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PTA Spot Prices Stagnate &Nbsp; Market Anxiety Is Serious.

2010/8/28 15:30:00 74

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Before the traditional demand season comes,

PTA

(7820102.00,1.32%) both spot and spot markets are not improving. The market is obviously lacking in confidence in whether PTA can reproduce its strength.

Fears of slowing global economic recovery and weak oil demand are heating up.

Crude oil futures

In the past two weeks, it continued to fall.

In the short and medium term, oil prices may not be able to challenge previous pressures, or they will face a longer period of sideways finishing.

The weakening of oil prices weakens the cost of upstream raw materials such as naphtha and PX to PTA prices.

According to the PX spot price in August 25th, the production cost of PTA is only about 6050 yuan / ton, and the price index of the medium fiber PTA is 7250 yuan / ton on that day, and the profit per ton is above 1000 yuan.

In the industrial chain of crude oil, naphtha, PX to PTA and clothing textile, too much PTA production profit space leads to the interruption of cost conduction process, which limits the upper space of PTA price.

The high positive cash flow has brought PTA producers enthusiasm for production.

Since April, the operation load of domestic PTA devices has been around 90%, and the PTA spot traders have a very high level of hedging. This can be verified by the change of PTA inventory in Zhengshang.

Since late March, the total number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of TA in Zhengshang has been more than 30 thousand, compared with warehouse receipts less than 5000 in the same period last year.

Abundant production of more than 1000 yuan per ton

profit

It reduces the supporting role of upstream cost to PTA price.

Under the background of high capacity and high inventory, support from downstream demand is becoming more and more scarce for PTA.

Since the beginning of this year, in the face of changing production costs, PTA prices are basically driven by downstream demand, and demand is the dominant factor affecting the current PTA price.

Textile and garment export growth is declining.

In the face of economic slowdown, expected appreciation of the renminbi, rising labor costs and competition in Southeast Asia and other countries, the slowdown in textile and garment export growth has begun to appear, which has been corroborated by the textile and garment export data released by China Customs.

Export deceleration will be mainly offset by domestic demand growth.

However, in the face of the complex economic situation, whether domestic demand can fully compensate for the shortfall caused by export slowdown is uncertain.

The price of high cotton (17180,0.00,0.00%) may bring some boost to PTA, but PTA production capacity has been expanding in recent years. This is obviously different from the cotton production affected by the weather and restricted by planting area. Because of the general improvement of people's quality of life and the diversification of demand, polyester and cotton can not completely replace cotton. It is rather far fetched to identify PTA price by the high price difference.

To sum up, PTA is still in the "three high" background of high profit, high opening rate and high inventory, and the market continues to worry about policy tightening and foreign trade situation.

On the premise of paying attention to downstream demand and stock market trend, high inflation is still the main operation strategy, and spot enterprises with risk exposure should also take an active part in selling hedging operation.