Research On The Industrial Economy Of China Textile Federation: The Economic Operation Of China'S Textile Industry In The First Quarter Of 2025

Since this year, the international environment has undergone complex changes, and the global economic and trade order has suffered setbacks; The cyclical structural contradictions in China's macroeconomic operation are relatively prominent, and the driving force for effective demand growth is still insufficient. In the face of the unexpected external pressure and the market situation that still needs to be improved, China's textile industry has solidly promoted the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, deepened the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, and worked hard to accumulate risk resilience. With the increasing synergy of the national stock increment policy, the main economic indicators of industry production, domestic sales, investment and so on achieved growth in the first quarter, the export data performed better than expected, and the economic operation started basically stably. Looking forward to the next stage and the whole year, the external environment for the development of the textile industry will become more complex and severe, but it still has the foundation, ability, and confidence to cope with various risks and challenges, and strive to accumulate new momentum for high-quality development toward new and better trends.

　　 The overall production started smoothly, and the transformation and upgrading were steadily promoted

After the Spring Festival this year, the textile enterprises have generally made good progress in resuming production, the level of capacity utilization has kept rising, and the industry production in the first quarter has started smoothly. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the capacity utilization rate of China's textile industry and chemical fiber industry in the first quarter was 77.8% and 86.3% respectively, both higher than the 74.1% capacity utilization level of the national industry in the same period. In the first quarter, the industrial added value of national textile enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year on year, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The production of the whole textile industry chain has achieved positive growth, and the industrial added value of flax textile, filament weaving and other sub industries has maintained a good double-digit growth trend. Among the 15 major categories of textile products counted by the National Bureau of Statistics, the output of 10 major categories of products such as chemical fiber, yarn, cloth, non-woven fabric and clothing has achieved steady growth. With the overall stability of the supply side of the industry and the support of the expansion of the national "double" and "new" policies, key textile enterprises have accelerated the upgrading of high-end, intelligent and green technologies, and the fixed asset investment in the textile industry has continued the rapid growth trend since 2024. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, China's textile industry, clothing industry, and chemical fiber industry fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased 13.5%, 22.9%, and 15.8% year on year, respectively, 1.1, 5.4, and 9.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

　　 The foreign trade situation is more complicated than expected, and the export pressure releases resilience

Since this year, the international environment has been turbulent and intertwined, and the United States has unilaterally abused the measures of abnormally high tariffs to raise global trade barriers. China's textile industry exports face unexpected pressure. The industry gave full play to the advantages of a complete industrial system and advanced manufacturing, and export resilience continued to emerge. According to the data of China Customs Express, the total export volume of China's textiles and clothing in the first quarter was 66.28 billion US dollars, up 1% year on year, and the export scale was at a high level in the same period of history. China's chemical staple fiber, textile yarn and other major intermediates still maintained a good growth momentum, playing a supporting role in linking the upstream and downstream of the global textile industry chain and ensuring the stable operation of the international supply chain, driving the textile export volume to 33.27 billion dollars in the first quarter, up 4% year on year; However, affected by weak overseas terminal demand, clothing exports are under great pressure. In the first quarter, the export volume was US $33.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. China's textile foreign trade enterprises actively build a diversified international market, continue to deepen international supply chain cooperation, and superimpose the "export competition" effect. In the first quarter, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan, Africa, Turkey, Bangladesh and other trade partners maintained a good growth trend, injecting strength into the stability of global textile and clothing trade cooperation.

　　 Moderate growth in domestic sales, national style, national fashion, outdoor sports lead the public fashion

In the first quarter, supported by the overall stable domestic macroeconomic situation, the policy of trade in of old consumer goods across the country and the Spring Festival consumer holiday, the domestic sales of textiles and clothing generally achieved moderate growth. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the per capita spending on clothing increased by 1.2% year on year; The retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles above the designated size increased by 3.4% year on year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, due to the fact that the demand for clothing consumption of residents has yet to be released and the relatively high base of textile and clothing e-commerce retail scale, the growth rate of online retail fluctuated slightly. In the first quarter, the retail sales of online clothing products nationwide slightly decreased by 0.1% year on year. The consumption of Guofeng Guochao, outdoor sports, and textile and clothing products with a high degree of correlation with the "national subsidy" policy has shown a remarkable performance. The market information shows that since this year, the sales of Guochao clothing and outdoor shoes and clothing represented by the new Chinese style have increased by 120% and 50% respectively year on year.

　　 There is still pressure to improve efficiency, and development confidence needs to be consolidated

In the first quarter of this year, under the situation that the production and marketing situation of the industry was basically stable and the foreign trade environment had not yet deteriorated significantly, the scale of benefits of textile enterprises was roughly the same as that of the same period last year, but the pressure to improve profits increased. In the first quarter, the operating income of textile enterprises above 38000 households in China increased by 1% year on year, and the growth rate dropped by 7.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; Total profit slightly decreased by 0.3% year on year. The benefit performance of each main link of the industrial chain is differentiated. The operating income and total profit of cotton textile, wool textile, printing and dyeing, knitting, industrial textiles and other sub industries have achieved synchronous growth, but the pressure to improve the profit of nearly half of the sub industries, such as linen textile, clothing, household textiles, is still outstanding. The fluctuation of corporate profitability and some operating indicators slowed down. In the first quarter, the operating income profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size was 2.5%, which was the same as that of the same period last year; The turnover rate of finished products and the turnover rate of total assets both declined year-on-year. Affected by the complex situation, the confidence of enterprise development needs to be consolidated. According to the calculation of China Textile Industry Federation, the comprehensive prosperity index of China's textile industry in the first quarter was 42.8%, which is the low level in recent years.

　　 The development situation is complex and severe, and we should concentrate on building a modern industrial system

Looking forward to the next stage and the whole year, the situation facing the smooth operation of China's textile industry will become more complex and severe. The high uncertainty of the foreign trade environment will further increase the test for textile enterprises. Weak pressure on the market demand side and the negative impact of the US tariff increase will be intertwined. The increase of international trade barriers and geopolitical risks will also damage the efficiency of the operation of the international supply chain, It will not only directly impact the export competitiveness of China's textile industry, but also bring challenges to industrial structure and layout adjustment, market potential tapping, development strategy transformation, etc. China's macro-economy is facing more challenges under the complex external situation, but the joint efforts of the national stock policy and the expanding incremental policy will provide support for the textile industry to better activate the demand space. The demand for textile and clothing in the fields of ice and snow economy, silver hair consumption, national fashion clothing, and health is expected to accelerate the release of consumer demand, boosting the confidence of private enterprises; The cultivation of new quality productivity has been accelerated, and the application of high and new technologies such as artificial intelligence has continued to make breakthroughs. Investment in the transformation and upgrading of high-end, intelligent and green industries will continue to grow. The support of the domestic demand market for the textile industry will be further strengthened, and a new pattern of steady development of the industry driven by domestic demand and innovation will gradually be formed. Despite the short-term foreign trade pressure, China's textile industry scale system advantages and advanced manufacturing advantages exist for a long time, which is still an indispensable force to maintain the efficient and stable operation of the global textile supply chain.

The textile industry will thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the National Two Sessions, based on the development orientation of "science and technology, fashion, green and health", focus on deepening transformation and upgrading, solidly promote the construction of a modern industrial system, strive to prevent and resolve risks and challenges in the field of foreign trade, and respond to the uncertainty of rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development, To make due contributions to promoting the steady and good economic operation of the industry throughout the year, completing the goals and tasks of the "14th Five Year Plan" and achieving a good start of the "15th Five Year Plan".