Take The Crude Oil And Peace Talks Ethylene Glycol In April To Start The Road Of Rebound.

Last night, the oil market once again challenged the nerves of the world's people, surging 21.02%, Brent crude oil closed at 29.94 U.S. dollars / barrel, affected by the trend of the plate within the day is mainly red, ethylene glycol also began to play the bottom of the drama.

Recent market performance - bottom price uplift

At the end of March and early April, the market trend of ethylene glycol showed a V shape. First, at the end of 3, the price of the market dropped to a historical low of 2890 yuan / ton under the influence of the weakness of the crude oil and the pessimism of demand, and then the price bottomed out. In April, the crude oil prices stabilized and picked up, and the overall atmosphere of the negotiation rose and the price absolute value was low. Dan Pingcang and short multi emotional participation, ethylene glycol rebounded in April, the first shot.

Performance two - production and sales volume

Take polyester filament as an example, after the holiday, because of the slump demand, the domestic demand and the external single and double shrinkage, the overall order is not good, the industry's production and marketing performance is sluggish. Occasionally, the sale promotion will also be difficult to stimulate the steady demand for goods in the downstream, and several early "pickup" picking up products, and the continuous decline of the latter price, also let the downstream passively bear the high price raw material pressure, to a certain extent, restrain. The kinetic energy of receiving orders. Recently, with the release of the crude oil level talks (especially the absolute low value), the energy consumption of downstream pick up units has been stimulated again, so as to share the losses of the raw materials in the early stage. Therefore, the production and sales volume in recent days, and the rhythm of the downstream stocks are also showing brightest. The stock of polyester filament is approaching 27-28 days from the 35 day of the previous peak, and the stock of short fibers has decreased from 10-11 days to 8-9. Days, price increases have become an important incentive to inventory.

But market risks remain.

The pressure in weaving is not reduced. Due to the shrinkage of orders, the weaving industry has started to raise its rate from about 70% of the festival to around 53%. In the global atmosphere, public health incidents are still fermenting. Before May, the repair of external products is far from being expected. Domestic orders are also under the impact of economic pressure, and are hard to get stronger now. Therefore, the price driven production and marketing is more about the transfer of stocks, from polyester to terminal / medium. Traders, rather than inventory, are actually digesting.

Therefore, it is a good and good basis for the oil to go well. The undervalued ethylene glycol is also a great probability to return to the value center. However, after the rally comes back to the fundamentals, the stock of the wharf stock will not be reduced and the terminal link will not start. The rebound of the market will not be completed overnight.