Number One Research Report: The Investment Time Of Textile And Garment Industry Is Coming.

In the March, textile and clothing also performed well in the past year, but this year was affected by the epidemic, and consumption was suppressed in January and February. For example, Busen shares, La Natsu Bell and other companies have been in trouble, and the stock price performance is still a factor that is related to the speculation of various theme stocks. For example, before the Spring Festival, net live broadcast, masks and protective clothing after the Spring Festival.

However, these hype, after all, is only a microcosm of the industry's dilemma. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, there are still some opportunities for textile and clothing to be excavated in March. Historical data show that after March, it will be the low tide of the textile and garment industry. So it's a good time to invest in this industry. Under the catalysis of this epidemic, the related items such as respirators, disinfectant wipes and other medical protective items will gain in the short term, but the short-term market speculation has been over the top. The speculation space in March is basically closed. We suggest that we grasp investment opportunities from two main lines:

First, clothing downstream enterprises suggest paying attention to the leading companies: Hai Lan's home and Semir costumes. Although the impact of the epidemic on the offline channel is relatively large, it may bring inventory backlog and risk of inventory impairment. However, the competitive advantage of high-quality leading companies has not changed logically. In the context of this epidemic's overfall, it is suggested that continuous attention should be paid.

Hai Lan's home (600398):

Shanghai e interactive introduction, the company can produce anti-static protective clothing, is a non medical protective clothing. The business of Hai Lan home covers the management of brand clothing and the production and sale of premium suits and professional wear.

Semir costumes (002563):

In February 10th, Qiu Guang, chairman of Semir fashion, has resumed work. "Digital age has given us more choices. Semir's supply chain capability has also been greatly improved. Semir has adopted online ordering to avoid the risk of large crowds during the epidemic. At the same time, Semir's flexible supply chain capabilities enable us to adjust the first order ratio and predict the risks further.

Second, e-commerce brand quality enterprises, such as Antarctic electricity supplier, open run shares, mercury home textiles. As the impact of the epidemic on the offline channel is relatively large, the impact on the online channel is relatively limited, which is mainly related to the factors related to the logistics delivery. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the electricity supplier brand Antarctica, the opening shares, and the electricity supplier's high proportion of the mercury home textiles.

Antarctic electricity supplier (002127):

The company announced in February 22nd that the distributor's online stores and warehousing logistics terminals have basically recovered by 80%. The factory side, the cooperative plant's overall operating rate is around 50%, of which the cooperation rate of the cooperative factories in Guangdong is about 60%. At present, the workers who are returning to work are mainly local workers, and the production capacity is expected to recover basically in the early February and early March. At present, the stocking situation of the factory can basically be supported by the end of March, and the commodities will be stocked around the winter and spring and summer before the basic Spring Festival, so as to ensure the sales after the Spring Festival. Therefore, the production of stock will not have much impact.

Kai Run shares (300577):

It is expected to achieve a leap from the millet ecological chain company to the mass consumer goods leader. The driving force comes from: 1) build a multi-layer brand matrix, and 90 points will promote the scale growth and profitability by means of positioning and function upgrading. 2) to strengthen the development of independent e-commerce channels, while the dividend of the rice channel remains, this year the company will enhance the penetration of rice brand bags and accessories in the distribution channels of millet. 3) systematized overall marketing, the company will take advantage of KOL live broadcast with goods and social media topic marketing: popular variety shows, marketing and dissemination of brand concept.

Mercury home textiles (603365):

As one of the earliest enterprises in the industry, the online channel has been developing rapidly. Its business has gone through twists and turns, and has maintained rapid growth in the past two quarters. The company actively adjusts the layout of online products, brands and platforms, embraces changes in electricity providers, and actively enters new social networking providers (spelling, gathering and selling stores) to speed up the development of new products online. At present, the effect has been initially reflected. In the future, online growth is expected to continue to drive the company's overall growth and pay attention to the growth of Q4 electricity supplier in the peak season. In addition, the company adjusts some production lines to produce protective products in a timely manner, which is conducive to improving the adverse effects of the epidemic on the company.

Risk warning:

Terminal demand is weak, inventory risk, industry adjustment is not expected, industry and company net interest rate fall risk, cash flow pressure risk.