Polyester Industry Is Weak, PX Fatigue Is Hard To Change.

In the past 1 months, international oil prices fell, including WTI falling 8.86 US dollars and BRENT down 10.07 US dollars, which led to the weakness of cost end support, which led to the weakness of polyester industry as a whole. The price of polyester varieties decreased, ranging from 100-900 yuan / ton. PX as the leading raw material of polyester industry chain, its easy to fall or difficult to increase attributes become more prominent.

Nearly one month PX and related products price list

In terms of production uncertainty, the international oil price showed a weak trend of consolidation, and then the cost side support slowed down. PX side, except for the lack of cost kinetic energy, the pressure of supply and demand pattern was particularly obvious. Along with Hengli Petrochemical's 4 million 500 thousand tons / year PX production line put into full swing, the monthly domestic PX release amounted to about 300 thousand tons, and since June, the number of accidents in domestic PTA installations has increased and the demand for PX has been reduced correspondingly. Therefore, the negative atmosphere of PX has dominated and the trend is easy to fall. In just 1 months, the global economic slowdown is expected to exacerbate the decline in demand, increase US stocks and output, and OPEC's oil production.

In terms of cash flow, the volatility of polyester raw materials is far higher than that of polyester products, of which PX cash flow presents an outflow trend, and the cash flow of PTA and MEG has accumulated to a certain extent. Most of the cash flow, and then downstream and even the terminal miserable, entered the 2019, along with Hengli petrochemical "oil refining aromatic polyester" integration project landing, the downstream enterprises bargaining power increased significantly, and the PX cash flow gradually downward conduction; on the contrary, the profits of PTA and MEG showed a significant rise, including PTA processing fees, in the early period once touched 2000 yuan, the enterprise benefit situation has been improved significantly during the year; and then to polyester products, the gold flow has not been improved significantly, although after two weeks of production and sales warming, the factory inventory pressure has been alleviated, and at present the weaving factory grey cloth inventory in recent years the same high point, but raw material price spanmission is not smooth, cash flow is still maintained at a low profit level. Due to the highly import dependent characteristics, the PX link has occupied the entire industrial chain for many years.

At present, in the centralized maintenance of equipment, polyester demand correction is good, the role of multi funds, PTA has begun to strong upward trend, and then drive polyester filament, staple fiber, bottle and so on followed by rise, polyester ushered in a brief callback period. But PX as a whole, it is still not optimistic. It will be followed by the new release of Sinochem, Hainan's two phase and so on. The mentality will continue to be cautious and pessimistic.