How Long Will The "Weekend Market" Of Polyester Filament Last?

Second quarter polyester fiber Filament has a surprise "weekend market", the market is quiet on weekdays, and production and sales are hot on weekends. At present Polyester yarn The market lacks demand side support. How long can the market rise last? When will the next market start?

The first weekend market appeared at the end of April. After a period of depression, the inventory pressure of polyester filament increases, and at this time PTA The news of device maintenance is concentrated, but the PTA processing cost is high. Whether the device is repaired on schedule has become a mystery in the industry. The inventory pressure of polyester filament enterprises has become prominent. The preferential promotion mode was opened in advance before May Day. Under the guidance of the downstream bottom buying mentality, the enthusiasm for buying has increased. The average production and sales are close to 150%, and some high-end enterprises are close to 300% and 600%.

Figure 1 Daily production and sales trend of direct spinning polyester filament

The second weekend market appeared at the end of May. In the first half of May, the polyester market was in a downturn, while the raw material PTA continued to increase slightly on the basis of high processing fees, and the profit of polyester filament continued to compress. As shown in Figure 2, the mainstream model of POY once suffered losses. The enterprise suffered terribly, and local offers began to increase. Driven by the downstream purchase, it concentrated on making up the position, and the cost drove the production and sales of polyester filament. The long silent polyester filament broke out at the weekend (May 26-28). On the weekend, the production and sales of some enterprises reached 300%, 400%, 600%, 750%, 1000%, 1200%, or even 2000%. The effect of de stocking was remarkable. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream weaving enterprises was high, and this wave of purchasing climax continued until Monday. On the trading day, the average production and sales of direct spinning polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were around 300%, and some high-end fibers were 1000%. The specific production and sales figures are as follows: 300%, 100%, 200%, 300%, 260%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 500%, 300%, 400%, 400%, 700%, 600%, 80%, 200%, 200%, 200%, 1000%, 300%.

Figure 2 Profit trend comparison of direct spinning polyester filament mainstream models

The third weekend market appeared in early June. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the polyester filament market was quiet. Weaving enterprises were not willing to stock up in advance, and the inventory of enterprises increased slightly. However, on the last day of the holiday, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. On the weekend, polyester production and sales were extremely hot. Some enterprises produced and sold nearly a thousand products, and the inventory pressure was relieved. On Monday, enterprises rose along the trend, polyester transaction center moved up, and raw material PTA was also rising, The polyester silk market will be supported to a certain extent. On Monday, the production and sales continued to be hot. The average daily production and sales were around 300%, and the production and sales of individual enterprises were nearly 1000. However, due to the lack of demand side support, the hot market is always difficult to last. After Tuesday, the filament has entered a just needed state.

Figure 3 Comparison of inventory days of direct spinning polyester filament mainstream model enterprises

It is worth mentioning that after two rounds of production and marketing, the inventory of polyester enterprises dropped significantly. By the middle of June, the inventory of POY had dropped to 7-12 days, the inventory of FDY had dropped to 11-16 days, and the inventory of DTY had dropped to 18-24 days.

Now, the fourth wave of weekend market has reappeared. According to Longzhong's statistics, some polyester filament enterprises had a large production and sales volume yesterday, with the high-end of 180%, 200%, 400% and 800%. Some enterprises said that the production and sales situation was average, maintaining around 30% to 50%. On Monday, the opening of double raw materials also rose in a narrow range, boosting the confidence of polyester filament market. The quotation of enterprises rose by 50-150 yuan/ton. Driven by the downstream buying sentiment, active inquiries led to the continued expansion of polyester production and sales today. By 15:40, the average production and sales of direct spinning polyester filament was around 160%, and some high-end fibers were 400% and 500%. The specific production and sales were as follows: 240%, 100%, 100%, 120%, 200%, 200%, 60%, 100%, 400%, 100%, 100%, 280%, 350%, 80%, 50%, 80%, 70%, 500%, 100%, 120%, 140%, 150%, 70%, 150%, 100%, 80%, 300%. At present, most polyester filament enterprises say that according to the recent market cycle, it is difficult for production and sales to reach such a high level tomorrow, and there are many variables whether the market can continue to expand.

Figure 4 Comparison of texturing and loom starting load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions

At present, the starting load of texturing and weaving machine decreases slightly. According to its starting cycle, the current starting rate is still in the downward cycle. In the first half of this year, there were frequent plant accidents in the chemical industry, among which the Xiangshui accident led to more strict industry safety supervision and security issues became the top priority, while the printing and dyeing enterprises around Xiangshui were implicated and ordered to close, resulting in rising dyeing fees and indirectly increasing weaving costs. At present, the international economic environment is grim, coupled with the turmoil in the Middle East, This has increased the wait-and-see expectations of industry insiders, reduced foreign trade orders, and caused many crises on the demand side. It is understood that at present, the inventory of polyester filament of weaving enterprises in many places is piled up. The reason behind the hot production and sales of polyester filament in the near future is the transfer of inventory, not digestion. So how long can the rising trend support!
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