Imported Cotton Is Dominant And Domestic Cotton Is Suppressed Obviously.

China, as a major cotton consuming country, has not been able to supply its own demand for many years, and has been relying on imported cotton for many years.

According to customs statistics, in January 2019, China imported 280 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 28%, an increase of 109% over the same period last year.

Recently, downstream textile mills have been replenishment, and imported cotton has the advantage of cost-effective.

Mainland traders compete to increase investment in imported cotton.

Imported cotton has taken a place. How should we make the domestic cotton back?

Domestic demand policy remains unclear.

The shortage of cotton production is inevitable for our country.

Although the USDA monthly report cut consumption in China last month, consumption is still greater than demand in general.

Although Xinjiang's output increased year by year, it could not change the fact that the total output of the whole country was declining.

State cotton has been rolling out for three consecutive years, and its stock has dropped from 11 million 440 thousand tons to 2 million 600 thousand tons. If some cotton can not be reused, the stock may be less than 2 million tons.

National storage cotton pat storage has become the focus of attention of all sectors of the cotton industry.

Generally speaking, the national cotton storage policy was issued in November last year. However, it has entered the March, and the news has not yet been released, and all kinds of guesswork are frequent.

There are two main points: first, the country may turn out in May; and the two is the national plan.

The rotation and rotation of cotton prices will go back to the cotton price, but no matter which one, it will inevitably cause market volatility.

At present, domestic cotton production is estimated to be 5 million 987 thousand tons, and the available national reserves of 2 million tons can not meet the domestic cotton consumption of 8 million 818 thousand tons, and the prospect of imported cotton is promising.

The general trend of increasing import cotton by sliding quota tax quota

In order to guarantee the need for cotton use in textile enterprises, the national development and Reform Commission issued an import quota of 800 thousand tons in June last year.

With the coming of this policy, the speed of port clearance has been speeded up, and the inflow of cotton has increased, and the backlog of port inventory has been alleviated, and domestic and foreign cotton prices have been under pressure and the pace of increase has slowed down.

From the chart, we can see clearly that since October, the amount of cotton imports has increased significantly since the October provisional tax quota was issued. It reached the highest level in January and imported 280 thousand tons of cotton.

Although affected by the United States and China, the US cotton is at a low level, but Brazil cotton and India cotton occupy the high position quickly because of their low price and high cost performance. Recently, Brazil cotton has been particularly prominent.

Brazil cotton M1-1/8 quotes at 15500-15600 yuan / ton, net weight with tickets, Brazil cotton competitive advantage is obvious.

Inside and outside cotton price difference expands import cotton superiority obvious.

From the chart above, since December last year, the difference between inside and outside cotton has been expanding, and the price advantage of cotton has become more obvious. Cotton enterprises are increasingly turning their attention to imported cotton. Among them, high quality Brazil cotton and Australian cotton are running smoothly, and India cotton inquiry price is common.

Despite the impact of the rise in futures, some imported cotton quotations increased by 100 yuan / ton, but compared to domestic cotton, the price advantage of imported cotton can not be ignored.

Cost and interest cost increase domestic cotton quotation firm

According to my agricultural product network, the price of domestic 3128B cotton pickup is 15600-15700 yuan, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous year because of the cost of capital and interest. Among them, there are many flower ginning plants. The quoted price is higher than the mainstream price of the market 200 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stronger.

With the gradual development of the cotton market, more and more enterprises are combining with the application period. Many cotton ginning mills are hedging their resources and are not eager to sell them.

Domestic cotton in the spot market is hard to beat imported cotton in terms of price advantage.

To sum up, the advantages of imported cotton will continue in the short term, and domestic cotton will continue to bear pressure until the national policy is issued and the quota is digested.