How To Curb The Release Of Huge Incremental Funds?

Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, the central bank raised the interest rate of the reverse repurchase by 10 BP again, and at the same time, the central bank launched the operation of SLF and MLF, which basically raised 10 BP.

The central bank raised the timing of raising the money market interest rate very well. Although the central bank may not need to follow up immediately after the Fed raised interest rates, the central bank's active follow up can offset the market's suspicions about monetary tightening. After all, maintaining the stability of the RMB value is also a major task of the central bank.

However, the central intention of the central bank to raise interest rates is to further promote financial deleveraging.

At present, the market interest rate is far higher than the central bank's short-term policy interest rate, and there exists arbitrage space for commercial financial institutions.

Since the 4 quarter of last year, the central bank has been raising the cost of bank debt by lengthening the duration to reduce the space of arbitrage in the same industry.

Management needs to achieve many goals. For example, if we want to make the economy more realistic and stable, we should also curb inflation and asset bubbles. But we can achieve so many goals by raising interest rates only through the money market. Obviously, we can not do that.

By observing the credit creation of China's commercial banks in 2016, it will be difficult to control the scale of the hot money: at the end of 2015, the balance of foreign exchange in China was 24 trillion and 870 billion yuan, which was only 21 trillion and 940 billion yuan at the end of 2016, and nearly 3 trillion in a year, but the M2 growth rate in 2016 remained at 11.3%, that is, if the foreign exchange occupation did not decrease, the M2 of last year should reach 13.4%.

Although the new credit of commercial banks is 12 trillion and 650 billion, the purchase of treasury and local government bonds is about 6 trillion, and the increase in assets by nearly 7 trillion of interbank obligations has increased the domestic assets of commercial banks by 25 trillion in 2016, so the total amount invested in the market is beyond imagination.

So big

In addition, social capital, which has already been a big Mac, has become an important reason for the continuous shortage of assets in China.

Since most of the stock capital has been allocated to assets, the asset bubble has been formed, and the brand of the current policy is steady growth and risk prevention. That is, the bottom line of the policy is not to pierce the bubble but to restrain the bubble, which is the continuous accumulation of bubbles.

From the past 20 years of the trend of housing prices, every time the real estate policy tightens, the housing price is slowing down or falling slightly, it is a good time to buy, and almost every three years is a good opportunity to buy a house, such as 2000, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012 and 2015.

This makes the majority of the new funds allocated to real estate by the residential sector every year. Real estate, as the largest proportion of household assets, continues the myth of rising and falling for so many years, and there is a rigid demand and an improved demand in itself.

In contrast, the demand for fixed income products is relatively weak, as expected.

This is the same. Over the years, the rate of return has been declining, which has led to a decline in the growth of banks and trust financing products.

The weakest demand for asset allocation is the equity products of the two tier market (far less investment returns than PE and VC). In the past 27 years, the cumulative increase is far below the property market and bond market, which has been worse in the past two years.

It is precisely because the property market has long been interpreted.

This year, the incremental capital of households will still favor the property market.

In order to curb the venting of these incremental funds to the property market, Beijing, Guangzhou and other places in the past two days have issued a more stringent restriction on the growth rate. This shows that even if there is no property tax, there are still some policy measures to curb the rise in housing prices, but the more stringent policies must have a degree, that is, not to puncture the bubble - this card has become the biggest factor that hot money is always reluctant to leave the property market.

In addition to the bubble in the property market, other markets are more or less bubbly. So many so-called financial products can get a higher expected rate of return because their earnings are built on the basis of bubbles. Once the bubble burst, the assumption of reasonable valuation will cease to exist. How many products can be kept strong? Therefore, regulation of various assets and exchange rates has become a compelling choice, but it can not be a permanent choice.

However, since the cards have already been seen and will not be suddenly taken away, the risk of investment in various categories of assets in 2017 should be small: the policy will be relaxed and the rebound can be expected.

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