PTA Holdings Are Coming Up To New Heights. How Much More Space Is There For The Clippings?

The position of PTA futures is at a record high. First, the current arbitrage space continues to open, and buying spot and selling futures lock in profit mode is popular.

By the end of March 14th, nearly 250 thousand hands in the futures delivery repository were 1 million 250 thousand tons PTA.

The second reason is that the processing fee of the PTA factory has expanded. When the processing fee is six hundred or seven hundred yuan / ton, some PTA factories have carried out the hedging operation and registered a large number of credit warehouse receipts, estimated at about 400 thousand tons.

However, from the supply and demand forecast in the first half of the year, social inventories accumulated nearly 450 thousand tons in 1-2 months. In March, the mainstream factory's parking overhaul intention was not strong at present, and PTA could still be a small surplus in March.

On the capital side, the person pointed out that at that time, the overall atmosphere of the bulk commodities continued, and in the past several commodity collective rising prices, PTA was often one of the last varieties to launch the market.

Furthermore, PTA has less turnover or position than 1, and its volatility is relatively low, which is relatively safe for funds.

In addition, at the end of January, PX

The explosion, coupled with the phased overhaul of the PTA installation, pushed the market to the highest point and took the highest position at that time.

Jiang Caichao, analyst at PTA, said that the position of PTA has been increasing, and PTA's bull and bear have their own logic.

He analyzed that for the long term, the crude oil was strong, the PX market was overhauled, the cost was not big, and the downstream polyester products were not high in stock year ago, so the overall position of the stocks increased. The logic of the shorts was that the PTA processing price increased with the increase of PTA price, and the spot processing difference between PTA and PX reached 720 yuan / ton in February 14th. The difference between 1705 futures and PX spot processing was close to 1000 yuan / ton, which reached a peak in the short term.

Therefore, in the short and long term "stick to one word" situation, the achievement of the day's market.

Actually, from the end of last year to the present

The position has always been at a high level. Jiang Caichao believes that this shows that the market is more competitive and there are some differences in the market.

"From the point of view of the position, although the main 05 contract has dropped sharply in recent years, there has not been a massive reduction in the number of bulls, but the top 20 are still more than 0.6, while the short end profits have not been cut down.

From 1 million 190 thousand hands in February 14th to 900 thousand hands, a reduction of only 290 thousand hands, and this difference is the divergence of the market forecast: bulls are still looking forward to the overhaul of PX, the overhaul of PTA devices and the demand season for downstream polyester, while the logic of short is short term crude oil collapse and poor performance of polyester products.

Jiang Caichao said.

For the recent cliff breaking fall of PTA, Han Yaojie, leader of Cci Capital Ltd energy and chemical industry, said that the demand for PTA is relatively stable, and the concrete start up is at a high level, and there is no particular problem.

But the fundamentals are really weak, but it doesn't make PTA drop one thousand yuan in just three weeks. He said there would be some market sentiment and capital side game, and procedural trading might enlarge some market in stages.

How long will PTA fall like this? Jiang Caichao said to Ho sum futures, in the short run,

The overall price change is not big, PTA spot processing is much less than 400 yuan / ton, if the low processing error continues to maintain, then the short-term market will not exclude the possibility of partial PTA factory installation shutdown, which will support PTA price.

Jiang Caichao predicts that the PTA social inventory will increase by 500 thousand tons in the first quarter, and this increase will have greater digestion pressure. Therefore, the rise of PTA needs the cooperation of downstream polyester demand. If the downstream demand is better, then the PTA will rise a bit higher if the stock is available.

"Of course, we need to focus on the change of crude oil terminal. If crude oil can not stabilize at a position of $46-47 / barrel, and the cost will collapse significantly, it will continue to have a negative impact on PTA."

Jiang Caichao said.

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