The Global Stock Market Is Going To Welcome The "New" A Share Market.

I hope you can see our perseverance and efforts in research, top-down, industry comparison, business profitability, theme strategy and so on. From a quarterly perspective, we maintain the judgment of "spring restlessness" in the 2017 annual strategy report. "Restlessness" stems from the anticipation of "reform".

　　 1. Overseas: the first week of 2017 Stock market The price of gold and other nonferrous metals continued to rebound, and the full employment of the United States and the continuation of the economic recovery continued. The US dollar index dropped slightly for the two consecutive week and the price of crude oil was volatile. Follow up focus and Trump took office in January 20th.

The global economic boom and inflation continued to expand. In the past week, the world's major economies have disclosed the December PMI data, which shows that the recovery of Europe, America and Japan has gradually increased. At the same time, inflation has also seen signs of rising, especially the rise in energy prices to help boost inflation. The euro area CPI increased by 1.1% in December compared with the same period last year (0.5% in October and 0.6% in November). In addition, the growth of new jobs in the US released on Friday is slightly lower than expected. But the rebound in wages shows that the improvement trend of the job market has not changed, laying the foundation for further accelerated economic growth in 2017 and the Fed's further interest rate increase in December.

The minutes of the December meeting released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday show that almost all Federal Reserve policymakers believe that the Trump administration's fiscal stimulus policy may accelerate the growth of the economy. Once implemented, they may push inflation up, thus prompting the Federal Reserve to radically raise the borrowing cost. Many members expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster pace.

Exchange rate, the first week of the new year, the RMB exchange rate stabilized first, and a sharp rise in offshore prices on Wednesday, near the offshore RMB exchange rate reached 6.85, the expected management has demonstrated effectiveness, and the "empty renminbi" is expected to cool down. The strength of the renminbi has adjusted the US dollar for two consecutive weeks, with the US dollar index -0.19% this week.

Follow up recommendations focus on Trump's inauguration in January 20th. Trump promised in his campaign that it would double the pace of US economic growth and "rebuild" the infrastructure of the United States; in addition, Trump advocated "trade protection" and "manufacturing industry returning to the United States".

Two, near the Spring Festival, food prices go up slightly. In the first week of the new year, the central bank will increase the strength of the return of funds. It is expected that the tight balance probability will be greater before the Spring Festival.

As the weather continues to turn cold across the country, and superimposed on the factors of Spring Festival preparation, domestic vegetable prices continue to rise, pig prices rose slightly, food prices as a whole showed a "steady rise" trend, the market is still vigilant against inflation.

Since the end of last year, the Interbank Funding side was generally loose, and the central bank returned large amounts of money this week. This week, the central bank bought 150 billion of the counter repo, and the reverse repurchase expired 745 billion. The net return of 595 billion was 595 billion a week. Follow up funds, taking into account the "Spring Festival factor" superimposed on the "end effect", and the issuance of new shares to maintain a relatively fast pace, whether the central bank can timely large-scale capital investment has become an uncertain factor. At the current point of time, we tend to be more likely to maintain a tight balance in the preganglionic gold surface.

Three, focusing on the "two sessions" in March 5th, "preventing risks and restraining bubbles" and "deepening reform" became the main keynote of the "two sessions" in 2017.

In 2017, the "two sessions" will be held on March 5th. It can be predicted that the major departments of various ministries and commissions and local provinces and cities are busy preparing related materials in recent years. The keynote of its policy is to emphasize that its primary task in 2017 is to put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position. Monetary policy is set to be "robust and neutral", serving for structural reform.

Deepening reform will become the top priority of economic work in 2017. According to the central economic work conference held in December, in 2017, we will focus on promoting "excess capacity". Supply-side reform "," agricultural structural supply side reform "," state-owned enterprise reform (especially mixed ownership reform) "and other three aspects, guiding the direction of structural investment for the A share market.

The reform of state-owned enterprises has deeped to the "deepwater area". The importance of "mixed reform" has been rising and entering the stage of landing. The policy will continue in 2017, and the market will focus again and again.

The official disclosure of "No. 1" is approaching, and is expected to be in late January or early February. "Agricultural structural supply side reform" and "land system reform" have become the main points of attention. Agricultural subdivision areas, such as "seed industry grain, land reclamation, land spanfer, agricultural modernization" and so on, are expected to be concerned by funds.

Four, investment advice: ready to go, twists and turns, watershed still before and after the "Spring Festival"

In the past week, despite the slight rise in A shares, trading volume has not yet been significantly enlarged. The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities have a turnover of 3500-4500 billion. At the beginning of the year, institutional investors mostly completed year-end assessment tasks, and the willingness to continue high frequency trading declined. With the coming of the Spring Festival, most institutional investors are busy with the year-end summary. We expect the A shares to be slack before the Spring Festival, and the A share market is in the grinding stage.

In terms of allocation, apart from "structural supply side reform, mixed spanformation and inflation mainline", we propose to pay attention to "upstream oil and gas production, high-quality oil service and some petrochemical varieties" that benefit from "crude oil rise". In addition, the "gold" plate is also optimistic.

For growth plate, it is still on the left side of the stage. It is recommended to wait patiently for more certainty factors.

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