RMB "Proud" Is Not Easy To Pulse A Shares Liquidity

Cyclical stocks recovered in 2016, consumer stocks returned and growth stocks were forgotten.

In 2017, the valuation of blue chips and small and medium sized businesses will still be close, while growth stocks will be split sharply, and the theme of reform will be active again and again.

At the end of 2016, the State Administration of foreign exchange issued a strict regulation on personal exchange.

Recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate rose against the US dollar. The offshore renminbi broke 6.80 against the US dollar, and the offshore renminbi against the US dollar also broke 6.88.

Analysts pointed out that whether it is to curb the empty speculation of the Renminbi or to block the black channel of exchange, the ultimate purpose is to curb the outflow of funds and guard the liquidity.

This helps slow down the market shock and panic caused by the depreciation of the exchange rate, and has a positive effect on maintaining the stock market funds.

With the advent of the global liquidity turning point, the industry expects that the overall liquidity environment will remain tight in 2017.

The liquidity pressure will be reflected in the first half of the year.

At present, it is still a shock market for the stock capital game, but under the background of "asset shortage", considering the downward trend of real estate, the long term demand for commodities is sluggish, the gold is stranded in the US dollar cycle and the bond market returns have shrunk.

"Affected by the devaluation of the renminbi and the expected impact, the stock of offshore renminbi deposits in Hongkong has dropped sharply, from 1 trillion to 627 billion 600 million, and the stock is concentrated in several big hands. Once the big row is not taken apart, the market liquidity will fluctuate."

Meyer futures analyst Li Meng said.

Liu Guanghuan, research director of the new era securities research and development center, pointed out that the RMB has risen sharply, mainly because the US dollar has recently gained 103.820 new highs in a short time, and its strength has been sluggish for the two consecutive trading day.

Two, the Fed's 2016 December Conference on interest rates showed that the Fed feared that a stronger US dollar would bring risks.

With the announcement of the meeting, the US dollar fell sharply, the offshore renminbi rose by 1000 basis points, the offshore renminbi rose by 219 basis points, and three, the recent regulators increased foreign exchange control, suppressed the speculative behavior of RMB, and increased the speculative cost of short selling.

Ceng Xianzhao, general manager of nuding assets, said that since August 2015, the depreciation rate of RMB has been more than 11%, which has accumulated a larger rebound power.

Excessive speculation and depreciation of the renminbi may at any time burst out.

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At the end of 2016, the foreign exchange bureau issued a strict regulation on personal exchange and demanded that individual exchange money should not be used for capital projects such as overseas housing, securities investment and so on.

Whether to curb speculation in the Renminbi or to block the black channel of exchange, the ultimate purpose is to contain the outflow of capital.

Data show that in 2016 11 months, foreign exchange accounted for 2 trillion and 590 billion yuan, capital outflow is obvious, and there are signs of acceleration.

Liu Guanghuan pointed out that in recent years, the regulators have increased the control of foreign exchange, explicitly prohibited individual purchase of foreign exchange for overseas purchases, stocks and insurance, cut off the channel for drawing blood from market liquidity, and some attempts to make foreign investment through exchange for foreign exchange were difficult to achieve, which has a positive effect on maintaining the stock market funds and slowing down the impact and panic caused by exchange rate depreciation.

"Exchange policy is short-term capital outflow to stop bleeding.

But from the level of purchasing power, the upward trend of domestic prices will also suppress the exchange rate in the medium and long term.

This policy has limited positive effects on the stock market. "

Ceng Xianzhao said.

"At present, the world is in the vicinity of liquidity inflection point, and the Federal Reserve is the main source of global liquidity.

Due to the strong US dollar and the expected impact of economic recovery, global monetary policy has experienced marginal tightening in varying degrees, and long-term interest rates in Europe, Japan and the United States have rebounded sharply.

China's short-term liquidity inflexion is also relatively obvious. It is expected that the overall liquidity environment will remain tight in 2017, and liquidity pressure will be reflected in the first half of the year.

Qian Weidong, founder and partner of Qing and Quan capital, said.

In the second half of 2016, monetary policy gradually shifted from "steady growth" to "risk prevention". At the end of the year, the bond market was sharply adjusted, and the liquidity environment was similar to the "money shortage" in 2013.

At present, the key factors affecting monetary policy are Qian Weidong's four points: first, the stabilization and recovery of the economy; two, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate to face greater pressure; three, the suppression of asset bubbles, the centralized control of real estate; and four, the deleveraging of financial markets.

"If these four variables do not change significantly in 2017, monetary policy will always be difficult to relax.

Therefore, the possibility of reducing interest rates in 2017 is unlikely, but in the second half of this year, there may be a reduction in the central bank's regulation.

Qian Weidong said.

For the trend of interest rates in 2017, Qian Weidong is expected to fall in the first half of the year, and the second half is expected to come down again.

In the first half of the year, the trend of interest rate was more disturbing, mainly in the tight monetary policy and finance.

Secondly, we should pay close attention to factors such as inflation expectations, financial inclusion in MPA assessment, capital outflow, credit fall and strong US dollar.

In the second half of the year, the trend of interest rates gradually dropped, mainly due to the downward pressure on the economy and the possible marginal shift of monetary policy in the middle of the year. In addition, the trend of return on investment was also driven by the trend of long-term interest rates.

Comparing the relationship between economic growth and interest rates in the US and Japan, it is clear that the downward trend of economic and investment returns will lead to long-term interest rates going down.

"The market is still a technical rebound after overtaking.

As the Spring Festival is coming, market liquidity is expected to be tight, which restricts the market's rising space and the market wait-and-see sentiment is still strong. Therefore, the A share market before the Spring Festival is likely to oscillate again and again. It is impossible to rule out the possibility of stepping back to the 3100 point after the big rebound, and constantly consolidate the bottom of the 3100 point.

Liu Guanghuan said.

Ceng Xianzhao said that after a slight rebound in the past year, the index will return to the concussion arrangement. The new opportunities come from structural opportunities such as mixed reform and emerging industrial policies. The market will pay more attention to value stocks to ensure safety cushion.

Qing and Quan capital research department believes that in the past year and a half, it has always been mentioning asset allocation under the "asset shortage". Standing at the present time, it is easy to see from several phenomena that this trend is more obvious: first, the valuation of growth stocks and value stocks is closer and rebalanced, the two is the desire of insurance information management, and the three is the general trend of investment in the sea.

At present, the price performance of the stock market has been improved both in terms of driving factors and fundamentals.

Real estate downturn, long-term demand for commodities, gold trapped in the dollar cycle, bond market returns sharply shrunk.

In addition, from the lever level, the stock market has basically completed after one and a half years of deleveraging, while the debt market has just begun to leverage, and real estate and commodities are restraining asset bubbles.

So, in 2017, the ranking of the large category of assets is stock > bond > dollar > commodity > real estate.

In terms of market style,

The gem has recently been weaker than the main board, mainly due to overvaluation and larger bubbles.

A large number of new listings of small cap will cause greater suppression on GEM, and there will not be much market share on GEM as a whole.

After the new year's day, the gem rebounded with the motherboard, and the volume did not enlarge significantly, indicating that there was not much incremental capital to intervene.

However, over the years, the high annual pfer of the annual report will attract the attention of the market. Some of the stocks with high sending and pferring themes have good elasticity and strong trend, which will lead to more active stock market, so the structural market in the gem will be more popular than the motherboard.

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