Short Term PTA Price Will Continue Low Oscillation Pattern.

Earlier this month, the OPEC and IEA crude oil monthly reports showed that the supply of crude oil market was excessive, and the oil storage remained serious, and oil prices were constantly suppressed. On the one hand, OPEC crude oil output hit a 8 year high. Iran even raised its domestic oil exports by 1 times on the basis of 2 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia is also constantly improving its crude oil output and approaching its historical high. On the other hand, the demand for crude oil in Asia began to slow down. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in June, China's crude oil imports fell for third consecutive months, with imports of only 7 million 500 thousand barrels per day, the lowest level in 5 months, and China at the same time. Domestic market demand The shortage caused a large number of refined oil exports to impact international oil prices; the demand for crude oil in India was not as strong as those in the first few months of this year. In June, the net import of India petroleum products decreased by 159 thousand barrels to 3 million 789 thousand barrels a month.

Hanging on top of the oil price is the addition of American oil drilling to the Damour sword. Oil and clothing company Beck Hughes released data released last week showed that the number of active drilling in the United States increased by 14 to 371, which has been increasing for 4 consecutive weeks, and is increasing for seventh weeks in the past 8 weeks. Although this will not bring immediate results to the US oil production, it will cause the market to generate the psychological expectation that the US shale oil will come back on a large scale, thus bringing greater suppression to oil prices.

Compared with other energy products, PTA Fluctuations are small, and lingering in a lower position for a long time, which leads to part. Investment The player leaves the field. The author found that, under the constraint of overcapacity, the polyester industry in the downstream of PTA is generally not optimistic about PTA, and is cautious about the latter trend of PTA. Because of the small fluctuation, investors' interest in PTA market is not high. The volume of trading also proved this point. Compared with the same period last year, the volume of PTA main contract volume has shrunk considerably, and market sentiment has dropped to a low level. On the other hand, the volume of PTA warehouse receipts has reached a record high. As of July 26th, the number of remaining warehouse receipts in the delivery warehouse remained as high as 188199. Manufacturers sold large quantities of goods through the futures market, and a large number of warehouse receipts suppressed PTA prices significantly.

Although the price of chemical fiber products has increased recently, it can not cover the reality of the weak demand for polyester products in the lower reaches. It is understood that at present polyester industry inventory is more, and PTA and polyester operating rate generally remained stable, of which polyester operating rate has been close to 80%, higher than the same period in previous years, and has been maintained for a long time. It is noteworthy that the upcoming G20 summit, from the documents issued by the Hangzhou housing and urban rural construction department, shows that the PTA capacity of the three control areas is 10 million 850 thousand tons, accounting for 22.10% of the total capacity, and the polyester production capacity is as high as 18 million 510 thousand tons, accounting for 38.89% of the total capacity of the polyester plant.

Moreover, according to polyester industry sources, the G20 summit has little impact on its stock because of its high polyester stock, and its inventory is sufficient to meet downstream demand during the summit. Next, the pressure of oversupply on PTA may increase. To sum up, under the influence of many unfavorable factors such as the callback of crude oil price, the lack of market sentiment and the sluggish demand, short-term PTA oscillation will be a big probability event.