The Currency War Between Britain And Europe Seems To Be Exempted.

The retail sales, core CPI and industrial output data released on Friday (July 15th) showed good performance. Euro and sterling and other European currencies continued to be weak, easing the easing pressure of the European Central Bank. In addition, the Bank of England kept the same position overnight. It may also follow the example of the European Central Bank. Although Britain is firmly at risk, it is too early to assess its real economic impact, and the easing time is not yet available in September.

The European Central Bank will announce interest rate resolutions next Thursday (July 21st). According to the latest Reuters poll, 18 of the 19 traders interviewed said the ECB would not relax its policy at the July 21st monetary policy meeting.

The US data is beautiful, the euro is weak, and the ECB easing pressure relieved.

Due to the good performance of US retail sales, core CPI and industrial output data, non US currencies and gold were generally weakening, crude oil fell sharply, and the stock market and treasury bond yields rose. The euro fell against the US dollar by 1.11 points and refreshed the two trading day low of 1.1071, ending the four consecutive trading day's uptrend. The euro continued to lower in the US dollar against the US dollar, easing the easing pressure of the European Central Bank next week.

Data show that the United States in June

The monthly rate rose 0.6%, expected to increase by 0.1%, the former value was revised up by 0.2%, and the initial value increased by 0.5%; the US CPI rose 6 after the 6 quarter rose, which was lower than expected, expected to rise 0.3%, and the former value increased by 0.2%. However, the core CPI monthly rate increased by 0.2% in June, and the annual core rate of non seasonal increase was 2.3%.

Subsequently, the US industrial output rate rose 0.6% in June, better than expected and the previous value, expected to grow by 0.3% and the previous value by 0.3%.

Overall, the US economic data released tonight are generally good, not in the US currency.

Generally weak, crude oil washed down, the stock market and treasury bonds yield higher.

The pound expanded against the US dollar, breaking 1.33, breaking down 1.3290, and dropping 0.4%. The euro widened against the US dollar, refreshed two trading days at 1.1071, and fell 0.42%; the spot gold refresh day was 1322.65 US dollars / ounce, and the day fell 0.78%; crude oil prices surged down, and the main oil contract was refreshed at two trading days at a height of 47.97 dollars / barrel; the Dow Jones industrial average rose to 18537.57, and the S & P index rose to the point of penetration, both of which reached a record high; the yield of the US Treasury bond rose to the highest level since June 24th.

Europe and silver are not very anxious. First or in September

Although Britain is almost certain, it is too early to assess the impact of Britain's departure from Europe, so the ECB will maintain stability next week. Even if it needs to be more relaxed, the easing policy will not be launched until September 8th.

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist of Holland International Group (ING), said that although the ECB is expected to further relax its policy next week, the bank believes that the ECB will remain unprepared. In fact, the timing of next week is "not good enough": for the ECB, it is too early for us to adopt immediate policy to stabilize market sentiment after the UK's "off Europe", and it is too early to assess the impact of "off Europe" on the economy. The only data available for reference is the euro zone's July ZEW index and the euro zone consumer confidence index.

Lloyds Bank of the United Kingdom says that the ECB policy makers have a series of policy tools to choose from. These policies include: further lowering deposit interest rates, canceling the lower limit of asset purchase interest rates, raising bond issuance restrictions, adjusting core capital and adjusting the proportion of bonds purchased according to the state scale; each method has its own potential disadvantages, including political opposition, which may have an impact on the profits of the banking industry; moreover, the final choice of European banks may be partly determined by the consequences of "de European" in the UK. "Lloyd"

The BOE unexpectedly maintained its benchmark interest rate on Thursday, but at the same time hinted at more stimulus measures in August to support the British economy after the referendum. This shows that the Bank of England believes that the actual impact of Britain's departure from Europe is yet to be observed and has no intention of rushing to take action.

Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England, said that there may be a need for substantial monetary easing in August. The United Kingdom may need a package of complementary monetary easing measures. The euro referendum has significantly increased the uncertainty of the economic recovery in the UK, which may take 2-3 years to revive. The British economy is unlikely to collapse, but may slow down in the next few quarters. The weakness of the British pound could lead to inflation in the UK at a target level of over 2% in the future.

This statement boosted the market's easing of expectations of the Bank of England in August, which once pushed the pound down more than 100 points against the dollar.

JP Morgan expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting of August this year, and then cut 25 basis points again in November. Meanwhile, it is expected that the Bank of England will restart sovereign debt quantitative easing (QE) in August, but the scale is difficult to determine. The bank also pointed out that the skepticism of Mark (Mark Carney) on negative interest rates and July's meeting minutes may imply that MPC may be more inclined to QE rather than zero interest rate policy.

The Bank of England temporarily kept interest rates unchanged, easing the urgency of the European Central Bank's stimulus measures and maintaining the needs of stabilizing the economy. The ECB may choose to stay put for a while to observe the subsequent impact of Britain's withdrawal from Europe.