PTA'S Rally Is Still Over There Is Still Room.

At the beginning of the year, with the lifting of the ban in Iran, the market expects the supply of the market will increase, and the price of oil will be reduced to a low of 26 US dollars / barrel.

After that, OPEC and Russia's "frozen production" discussion gave market hope.

Next, oil prices rose again due to the improvement of the economic environment.

Meanwhile, the output of the United States and other non OPEC oil producers also began to decline, accelerating the rise of oil prices.

But the Doha conference has hit the market's enthusiasm, but it can not change the crude oil.

Tight situation.

At the end of April, the geopolitical factors brought about by the Kuwait strike had subsided, and the market began to seek new positive effects.

The most favorable factor for the market is the coming of the peak season of driving, and the time point is gradually approaching from the end of May to the beginning of September.

In addition, the global refinery operating rate will gradually increase in May, and refinery demand for crude oil will also rise.

At the same time, although Kuwait's resumption of production has been successful, Iraq's exports and the turbulence in Libya are all affecting the global crude oil supply.

From the current loading plan of the mainstream oil producing countries, the load of Russia, Nigeria, Angola and Beihai in May is declining compared with that in April, and the US is still in production decline, and the number of drilling is declining.

Before the demand season comes, the crude oil market may oscillate again or even slightly, but the overall trend is still upward.

From a microcosmic perspective, the overall industrial chain is on the rise.

From March 11th to April 22nd, the operating rate of PTA has been maintained at 72.4%, and the operating rate of polyester has increased from 78% to 85.3% over the same period.

Demand is increasing while supply is limited.

In the next few years, the supply of PTA is still difficult to effectively release, because the start-up of new equipment is not smooth and the maintenance device is delayed.

Downstream polyester, driven by the rise of crude oil, is rising in volume and low in inventory.

although

Production is still near the breakeven point, but it will not lead to a decline in its operating rate.

From the warehouse receipt volume of PTA, 160 thousand warehouse receipts and 800 thousand tons of inventory are locked in the delivery warehouse.

This part of the supply pressure will be postponed to the market in September 2016, and the PTA plant will continue to reduce production in 2015 and September to cope with the warehouse receipts pressure. Therefore, it can not be said that the large volume of warehouse receipts will drag down the PTA price.

After the capacity to go in 2015, the supply and demand of PTA market is basically balanced.

From the beginning of March to the end of April, the polyester start-up rate reached a high level of load. However, the operating rate of PTA could not be effectively improved. There was a gap between the supply and demand of PTA in real time. This is one of the reasons why a multi head can take the opportunity to pull up the price of PTA.

From the first quarter statistics, the output of the first 3 months of PTA increased by -5.27%, and the output of the first 3 months of pet growth was -1%, which was significantly lower than that of the past few years.

Under the background of economic recovery and loose funds, the output of these varieties is negative year-on-year, which means that they will be amended later.

To sum up, the contraction of the supply side and the pull up of demand side in the next peak season will push up the price of crude oil, and the PTA industry chain is in a tight supply and demand situation. The pull up of crude oil directly opens up the space for PTA to rise.

The price fluctuation of external commodities, crude oil and the influx or outflow of capital will affect the price of PTA.

From a technical point of view, the 1609 contract is expected to reach 5000 yuan / ton after breaking through 4850 yuan / ton, and the target point will move up to 5600 yuan / ton in the future.