The Global Cotton Supply Is Still Loose In The New Year.

In the first quarter of 2016, PTA futures were at a low level. In January, international crude oil fell below 30 US dollars / barrel, while the lowest PTA futures in the middle fell to 4200 yuan / ton, the lowest in 2004.

February

The device has a lot of parking, but the international crude oil has been searched for two times. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester has been overhauled during the Spring Festival, and PTA has maintained a low level of turbulence.

In March, the international crude oil exploration bottom picked up and stood at 40 US dollars / barrel. The PX overhaul expected to drive PX prices strong and PTA cost end to be supported; the black plate outbreak led to a sharp rebound in commodities, and PTA was also boosted.

In the first quarter, PTA rose significantly behind other chemical products, which was mainly due to its weak fundamentals. The PTA supply exceeding demand pattern had not been changed. In March, 2 million 200 thousand tons of new equipment had been put into operation, and PTA supply side had a long way to go.

In the first quarter of 2016, international crude oil was first suppressed and then lifted. In January, international crude oil fell sharply, breaking below 30 US dollars / barrel, and falling to the lowest level in 2004.

At the closed door meeting in Doha in mid February, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar agreed to freeze oil production at the level of January and call on other oil producing countries to abide by the agreement.

In mid April, OPEC oil producing countries and non OPEC oil producing countries held a meeting to discuss the frozen production agreement. The recovery of crude oil prices in the late period depended on the implementation of the frozen production agreement.

In January and February, PTA low level shocks, the international crude oil supply and demand imbalance remained, once fell below 30 U.S. dollars / barrel, a new low since 2004, the cost side support is weak; in addition, the PTA device maintenance is relatively small, the load is maintained at around 65%, the downstream polyester repair scale is huge, weaving is affected by the Spring Festival factor, the operating rate is rapidly declining, and PTA is in the state of "tired inventory" at this stage.

PTA rose in March, which was mainly driven by the rise of bulk commodities, while the downstream polyester load increased rapidly, PTA

Return to tight balance.

In mid April, OPEC oil producing countries and non OPEC oil producing countries held a meeting to discuss the frozen production agreement. The recovery of crude oil prices in the later period depended on the cooperation of all parties.

The two quarter is the Asian PX plant entered the maintenance season, PX supply may be again tense, which will support the formation of PX prices.

In the first quarter, PTA started to maintain a relatively high level of operation. PTA was in the stage of accumulated inventory, while the PTA processing cost was reduced to 500 yuan / ton. In mid March, the new 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hon Bang petrochemical plant was put into operation, PTA

Enlarge。

The current PTA processing fee is too low, or prompted some PTA factories to stop.

The current polyester load in the lower reaches to about 80%, and the two quarter is the peak season for PTA demand. If PTA load falls, PTA will go to the inventory stage, and it will also lead to a rebound in PTA prices.

Overall, PX maintenance led to strong prices, cost side support, PTA demand season is coming, supply and demand pattern will improve, will support PTA rise.

It is estimated that the two quarter TA1609 and the contract interval will be 4500-5500 yuan / ton, suggesting that the 09 contract will fall to 4500 yuan / ton.