Whether The Dollar Is Oversold Is Still Uncertain.

The Federal Reserve's broad trade weighted US dollar index has fallen by more than 4.5% from its peak in January 20th. So there are two questions: is the US dollar oversold against some currencies? And whether we want to short the US dollar, which is behind the market trend recently? Let's take a look at some of the technical indicators of some of the currencies listed in G10 and emerging markets.

Generalized trade weighted US dollar index: US dollar is currently on the 50, 100 and 200 day moving average.

At present, the spot level near 119.40 is still lower than the October 15, 2015 low of 1.2%, and is higher than the low of 5.8% in May 15, 2015.

In addition, the 61.8% return position since May has been unchanged from last October's low point.

For one reason, Morgan Stanley expects the US dollar to decline next year.

The Fed's broad trade weighted US dollar index: in the long run,

The momentum momentum shows that it is still trading at a much higher level than the 100 and 200 week moving average.

More interestingly, the US dollar has fallen to its 50 week mobile average.

A similar situation occurred in 1998-1999 years, when the US dollar rose 13% and then recorded a peak of 130 in 2002.

RSI (relative strength index): relative strength index RSI is a technical curve based on the ratio of the rise and fall of a certain period, reflecting the prosperity of the market in a certain period.

Usually, RSI below 30 is considered oversold.

US dollar against Israel New Kerr (ILS), US dollar against Philippines.

(PHP) and Malaysia (MYR) both fell into this camp, indicating that investors should be cautious when investors want to do more.

Below 30, but no dollar to KRW, the US dollar against the Swedish kronor (SEK) and the US dollar against the India rupee (INR) are so extreme.

On the other hand, the Indonesian rupiah, the baht and Hungarian follower all perform poorly in emerging market currencies.

In the G10 currency, Morgan Stanley believes that the New Zealand dollar and the Norway kronor still have room for growth.

Relative to the bottom of the dollar index: the Federal Reserve's broad trade weighted US dollar index fell before October 2015.

The current level compares with the above lows, indicating that there is still room for further decline in the US dollar.

According to this standard, the South African rand, the pound, the ruble and the Mexico Peso are already "buying" in comparison with the US dollar.

From the RSI index, Malaysia ringgit is overbought compared with the US dollar.

In the G10 currency, the Australian dollar rose the most, and surpassed that of last October.