Textile And Clothing Export Situation Is Hard To Say Optimistic, New Challenges Under The New Normal

China Textile and garment export After going through 2015, we will face a more severe situation in 2016. The global economic and trade growth is weak, the overseas market demand is declining, and the domestic labor cost continues to rise. While dealing with more external competition, the trade protectionism infringement of some countries is more prominent. How to find opportunities and power in the face of unprecedented pressure and difficulties is the urgent demand of the textile and clothing industry.

At the "going out" summit of Chinese textile and garment enterprises and 2016 China and Asia Textile International Forum hosted by China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and Shanghai hope, textile and garment R & D, production, trade and retail from more than 20 countries and regions including China, the United States, the European Union, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, India and so on were held in Shanghai The industry elites in the field gather together to share views and experience with the focus of the employment industry.

Export volume and price of textile and garment decreased

The export data of China's textile industry in February 2015 is still not optimistic. In 2015, China's textile and clothing exports totaled US $283.89 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%; at the same time, the export volume decreased slightly by 1.2%, and the average export price decreased by 3.7%. Last year, the export value of US $39.7 billion has been improved, and the trend of export has not decreased in the short term. The overall export situation in the whole year is not optimistic.

In terms of export as a whole data In addition, the performance of the market segment is also difficult to see bright color. Among the three traditional export markets of the United States, Europe and Japan, only the United States has maintained growth, and in other emerging markets, only Africa and the Middle East have maintained steady growth in exports.

Specifically, in 2015, China's textile and clothing exports to the United States maintained a growth rate of 6.6%, while exports to the European Union and Japan decreased by 13.7% and 11.7% respectively. From the perspective of intercontinental market, China's exports to Africa and the Middle East maintained a steady growth of 5.2% and 4.6% respectively. Among other major export markets, exports to ASEAN market showed a slight decrease of 0.8% compared with the rapid growth in the previous two years, while exports to Russia declined significantly by 32.6%.

China's textile and apparel export market in 2015 was mainly due to the stable growth of China's textile and clothing market, which was mainly due to the stable growth of China's textile and clothing market Devaluation is related. For example, the main reason for the decline of export to EU is the sharp depreciation of euro against RMB in 2015; the reason for the continuous decline of export to Japan is the economic downturn in Japan and the increase of consumption tax retail market The recession is caused by the continuous depreciation of the Japanese yen against RMB, and the continuous shift of the focus of Japanese Importers to ASEAN countries; the sharp decline in exports to Russia is mainly due to the drastic fluctuations of Russian economy in the second half of last year due to economic sanctions from Europe and the United States and the sharp drop of ruble, as well as the decline of some customers' reputation and inconvenient customs clearance.

New challenges under the new normal

In 2016, China's textile and clothing export will face a more complex and severe foreign trade development situation. Jiang Hui stressed that China's textile and clothing exports will face four major constraints.

First, the growth of international market demand is weak. The report released by the United Nations lowered the world economic growth forecast for 2016 to 2.9% from 3.3% at the beginning of the year.

Second, the traditional competitive advantage of China's textile and clothing export is declining. Since 2009, China's labor cost has increased by more than 10% annually. The labor employment cost in coastal areas has approached the level of Eastern European countries, and is 3-5 times higher than that of Myanmar and other neighboring countries.

Third, the outward transfer of industries and orders has been accelerated, and the transfer places have expanded from Southeast Asian countries to Latin America, Africa and other wider regions, and even developed economies outside the traditional "gradient transfer" scope such as Eastern Europe and the United States.

Fourth, exports lack effective support and growth points. According to the data forecast reflected by industry associations and enterprises, 37 industries such as textiles may face zero growth or negative growth in 2016.

In addition, the rise of protectionism in the international community should not be underestimated. In 2015, among the export products of China's textile and clothing, the trade protectionism infringement of India, Argentina, Peru, Brazil and other countries was more prominent, and the trade protectionism of Pakistan, EU, Indonesia, Turkey, Colombia, Egypt and other places also increased. In 2016, we must attach great importance to and deal with the rising trend of trade protectionism.

In addition to textile and clothing export pressure, the import side also faces no small resistance. Jiang Hui said that at present, China's textile and clothing import growth mainly depends on domestic fixed asset investment, production matching demand and import demand driven by processing trade export, and is greatly affected by commodity prices. In 2015, the growth rate of domestic fixed assets investment decreased year on year, and nearly 80% of the investment growth rate of manufacturing industry dropped. It is estimated that in 2016, the price of bulk commodities will still fluctuate at a low level and domestic demand will remain weak. Although some products have reduced the import tariff, the possibility of a strong rebound in imports is small due to the lack of growth momentum.