The Abnormality Of Hong Kong Trade Has Aroused Concern In The Industry.

In the context of continued decline in imports, imports from Hong Kong in February (via China)

Imports to the mainland continued to surge, an increase of 88.7%.

In January, imports from Hong Kong increased by 108%.

Although imports from Hong Kong accounted for less than 1% of the total imports, due to the sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves for several months, the abnormal trade in Hong Kong has attracted the attention of the industry.

Li Youhuan, director of the Guangdong Provincial Social Science Comprehensive Development Research Center, which has long been concerned about hot money, told reporters that this data is very strange. There must be a false trade. Because of the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, arbitrage is very good.

But the official attitude is not quite the same. In the middle of February, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, denied that capital flows out of trade. The vice president of the central bank, Yi Gang, also said at the press conference of the two sessions that the decline in foreign exchange reserves was due to the "accumulation of money in the people". It was not surprising that the capital inflow would turn around.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in March 8th, China's imports in February fell by 13.8% compared with the US dollar, with imports of Hongkong in China increasing by 88.7% over the same period last year, far exceeding other regions, such as Taiwan, China (14.2%), Korea (11.6%) and Singapore (23.1%).

In the same month, the amount of goods exported to China's Hongkong showed a 13.1% decline.

"(February data) gives us a reminder that exports are declining while imports are growing, easy to pfer pricing, outflow of funds, and vigilance, but don't jump to conclusions."

Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, told reporters that the data in February did have some strange points, but it still needs to be proved that there are

Existence.

Later, the reporter did not find some more detailed data in the official, but he found the answer from a report by UBS.

According to the UBS report, from December to February this year, the average growth rate of the mainland's imports from Hongkong increased to 71% (65%, 72% and 89% respectively), while Hongkong's exports to the mainland increased by only 1% over the same period last December, and 8% in January.

UBS said that since the end of last year, the depreciation of the renminbi is expected to heat up.

Pressure is increasing, and speculators may report imports from Hongkong, hiding capital under Trade and pferring to overseas, but the total volume should not be large.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, also told our correspondent that this is the third consecutive month that the mainland has been importing from Hongkong, China, which is much higher than the official export data to Hongkong. Under the influence of the weakening of the renminbi, high value imports can achieve capital outflow.

Yi Gang said at the press conference of the two sessions that the RMB exchange rate does not exist on the basis of sustained depreciation, and is expected to return to basically stable. China is exploring the mechanism of "interest rate corridor".