PTA Processing Price Difference And Start Up Problem

PTA processing price difference reflects the profit status of PTA plant.

The average processing cost of the industry is around 720 yuan / ton. Of course, the cost of processing some large factories may be below 600 yuan / ton, but we still estimate it based on the average level of the industry.

Judging from the whole year of 2015, the price difference of PTA processing has been below 600 yuan / ton for a long time.

At the beginning of 2015, the PTA industry reduced production jointly, the PTA load was low, and the PTA processing price difference maintained at 700 yuan / ton. In February, the PTA load started to increase, the downstream consumption was in the off-season, the PTA processing price difference began to shrink, although the April Xiang Lu device exploded, the processing price difference rebounded, but it still failed to break through 600 yuan / ton, until July, the processing price difference once dropped to 300 yuan / ton; in the face of serious losses, Yisheng and Hengli jointly reduced production.

Another decline, social inventory accelerated digestion, as of the end of November, social inventory at the level of about 1 million 300 thousand tons, Yisheng and Hengli strong price intention, spot prices continued to be strong, coupled with the decline in crude oil, PTA processing price difference continued to expand, to November, processing price difference restored more than 700, PTA factory profit level is better.

PTA social inventory changes can be tracked by scissors difference between PTA and downstream polyester load.

According to the total capacity of PTA and the total capacity of polyester and the level of start-up load, the overall dynamic supply and demand is estimated. If the dynamic supply and demand is loose, PTA social stock is in the accumulation stage; otherwise, it is in the out of stock stage.

In 2015, due to the long-term shutdown of Xiang Lu and far east installations, Yisheng and Hengli jointly put the PTA operation at a low level, resulting in a tight state of dynamic supply and demand. The social inventory began to enter the inventory cycle in March. By the end of November, the PTA social inventory level dropped to around 1 million 300 thousand tons, and was generally at a low level.

In addition, the average stock days of PTA in PTA factories and polyester factories can be verified by PTA.

In early 2015, the Far East bankruptcy reorganization, its 3 million 200 thousand PTA

In the long term shutting down, the explosion of Xiang Lu Petrochemical Company in April led to its long-term production capacity of 6 million 150 thousand tons of PTA, plus some long-term idle small capacity. The total capacity of the two long-term shut-down operations was as high as 14 million 300 thousand tons, which made the two giant Yisheng and Hengli total capacity occupy half of the total capacity, and Yisheng and Hengli's ability to control the spot greatly increased.

In 2016, in terms of new installations, Sichuan Shengda's 1 million ton plant and Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tonnes are expected to be postponed until at least two quarters of next year. The Urumqi petrochemical project is going into operation in the fourth quarter of next year, and Xiang Lu still has no definite timetable for restart. The market rumors are hard to restart before the three quarter of next year. If we really expect, the control of plant load in Yisheng and Hengli industries is still strong in 2016. In order to maintain a good processing price difference, the overall PTA load will remain low.