PTA The Opening Of The Empty Window Is Cost Exhausted.

Since 2016, crude oil prices, which were in a stable state, once again returned to their downtrend. As of January 7th, the European and American crude oil futures line has been quadruple.

As of Beijing time on January 7th at 17 hours, Brent crude oil dropped to a minimum of 32.55 US dollars / barrel, the first time it fell below 33 US dollars / barrel level since April 2004.

Affected by this, domestic petrochemical futures are also weakening, of which PTA futures 1605 contract yesterday fell 48 yuan / ton or 1.07%, and reported 4424 yuan / ton.

The focus of the spot market has shifted slightly.

Mainly.

"US crude oil imports have declined, crude oil inventories have dropped unexpectedly, but demand has fallen sharply, resulting in a sudden increase in oil products storage."

Galaxy futures Textile Division analyst Liu Qiannan pointed out.

After the fall in oil prices, naphtha followed the decline. According to the galaxy futures data, naphtha followed a decline of 13.63 US dollars to 409 US dollars CFR, Japan, PX fell 2 US dollars to 763 US dollars CFR China.

In terms of raw materials supply, Liu Qiannan pointed out that the PX contract negotiations in 2016 were nearing completion. Most of the contract formulas were used last year, but they were generally increased by 1 US dollars / ton on the basis of last year (last year the mainstream level was -2 US dollars / ton, and a few factories could get -2--4 dollars / ton). The market is expected to increase due to the demand for oil adjustment, and the supply of PX in 2016 is slightly tighter than that in 2015.

In addition, the ACPPX negotiations failed in January, Yisheng petrochemical and ExxonMobil alone set the Asian contract price in January at 750 US dollars / ton CFR China.

The final ACP price was not reached, but JX finally gave up the offer and withdrew from the negotiations, representing a certain "PX" attitude of the PX suppliers for the January market. And Mei Fu Yi Sheng unilaterally reached the contract price at 750 US dollars / ton CFR Asia, and also "trend" to lock in the cost range of January.

China during the Spring Festival

In terms of maintenance, according to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, in 2016 1-2, the domestic polyester production capacity planned to be overhauled has been 8 million tons, which is slightly higher than that of the same period last year.

By the end of January 2016, domestic polyester operation load will drop to near 63% level.

Specifically to the main products, the maintenance device is mainly based on the production of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber, which accounts for more than 90% of the total. The production of PET bottle flakes is relatively small, with only 250 thousand tons of Hengyi and 220 thousand tons of Tenglong, mainly related enterprises have been centralized maintenance in 10-12 months.

"Short term PTA supply is still surplus, downstream.

It will continue to fade, but the demand for stocking the Spring Festival will gradually appear.

If there is no big fluctuation in crude oil, then the short-term PTA will not be too large. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay close attention to 1605-1609 opportunities.

Kuang Bo analysis said.

In terms of operating rate, Yongan futures analyst Kuang Bo said that the operating rate of the PTA device was 70.11% in recent years, the polyester operation rate was 72.9%, the balance load was 64.7%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 54%.

In terms of PTA inventory, the PTA plant is about 2-4 days, and the polyester plant is about 3-5 days.

Polyester production and sales fell, an average of 8-9, polyester price most of the increase of less than 100 yuan, a slight decline in individual.

However, Liu Qiannan said that the 7 day position data showed that the top 20 positions were CITIC and Haitong plus, Yongan, galaxy, Eastern Airlines, and China Everbright.

As of 7 days, the number of warehouse receipts was 20534, unchanged, and the effective forecast increased to 9383.

Polyester started to continuously cut down, PTA supply and demand were weak, and the price rise in May was near 150 yuan / ton.

If we fall below the 20 day moving average, we will open up the short window and destroy the trend.