The RMB Exchange Rate Is In Line With China'S Interest Maximization Demand.

　　 The RMB exchange rate has a relatively stable "material" basis.

I believe that the weakening of the current RMB exchange rate is mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar and the weakening of the US dollar in the peripheral environment. But the real factor determining the exchange rate is the economic fundamentals behind the exchange rate. To see whether the general trend of RMB to us dollar exchange rate is rising or falling or generally stable, the first is to look at the relative situation of the two countries' economic fundamentals. Compared with the developed countries such as Japan and the euro zone, which are still in deep recession, the US economic recovery has been strong. It increased by 2.4% last year and increased by 2% over the past three years on the basis of a 2.2% increase in the previous year. There is no doubt that the US economy has gone out of recession and returned to normal orbit. Because of this, the fed not only ended the QE, but also began to discuss the question of when to raise interest rates. It is the recovery of the fundamentals of the US economy and the return of monetary policy that have prompted the appreciation of the dollar against almost all non US currencies such as the euro and the yen. However, in contrast to the Sino US economic comparison, China's economic growth is still the highest among big countries, even though China's economic growth has dropped somewhat and is likely to continue to fall this year. Another point is that the quality and efficiency of China's economic structure is improving. Therefore, the economic fundamentals of China and the United States remain relatively stable, which constitutes the material basis for maintaining a relatively stable exchange rate between the RMB and the US dollar. Another important material base is huge foreign exchange reserves.

　　 RMB exchange rate Devaluation will not help expand exports

Recently, especially after the European Central Bank launched the euro QE in January 22nd, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate also worried the Chinese government would use the RMB exchange rate depreciation to stimulate exports. Some experts have repeatedly suggested that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate should be used to stimulate exports, and that the RMB exchange rate has been overvalued, thus inhibiting China's exports. To a certain extent, this kind of voice has played a reinforcing role in the expectation of the RMB exchange rate and the actual weakening in the market. It is inconclusive whether the RMB exchange rate is overvalued. Moreover, China's trade surplus has been increasing over the past three years, and last year it has reached a record high. Indeed, China's export trade has been lower than expected in the past three years, up only 6.1% last year, the lowest since 2010. However, if China's export growth rate is still far higher than the global trade growth level from a global perspective, the share of China's exports in the world is still increasing. Before the crisis, Global trade growth was several times faster than global GDP growth, but after the crisis, it was lower than the latter. In view of this, China's exports are not so bad, far higher than the level of global growth.

Moreover, more importantly, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate does not necessarily promote exports. In theory, a decline in the exchange rate of a country's currency is conducive to promoting exports and restraining imports, thereby promoting economic growth. But in practice, the internal logic is not so simple. Whether the conclusions drawn from some serious academic studies or from the experience of some big powers, the effect of currency devaluation on domestic imports and exports is far less than that described in textbooks. Since Andouble came to power again at the end of 2012, the Japanese yen has depreciated greatly against the US dollar. It has depreciated from the initial 75 yen / dollar to the current 120 yen / dollar, which has depreciated to 45%. The extent of depreciation is not impressive. What is the result? Japan's trade deficit is expanding. In 2013, Japan's trade deficit reached 11 trillion and 470 billion yen, almost double that of the previous year's deficit of 6 trillion and 940 billion yen. In 2014, the trade deficit further increased to 12 trillion and 790 billion yen, creating a record high trade deficit in Japan. From the conclusion of relevant academic research, the main factors affecting exports are external demand and cost, and the weight of exchange rate factors is small.

　　 If we weaken significantly, the renminbi will be weakened. Internationalization Results will return to zero.

Some experts suggest that China learn from Japan to adopt a depreciating way to boost exports. In this regard, I do not agree, in addition to the above analysis of the yen depreciation did not achieve the purpose of stimulating economic growth, the most important point is that although the yen has depreciated significantly, but did not cause a large number of capital outflows from Japan, and in our country, once the market expects the RMB exchange rate will depreciate greatly, it is very difficult to avoid capital outflow. The Andouble administration indirectly realized the depreciation of the Japanese yen through quantitative easing. Large scale quantitative easing first led to the continuous rise of the stock market and increased the attraction of capital inside and outside the territory. In fact, Japan's stock index rose far more than the depreciation of the yen exchange rate. Therefore, in this process, capital did not flow out of Japan on a large scale. At the end of January this year, Japan's foreign exchange reserves increased by 6 billion 700 million US dollars compared with the end of 2012. At present, our country can not implement the monetary policy after Abe took office. Therefore, if we can not make the stock market go up sharply and retain capital, let the RMB exchange rate weaken or let the RMB exchange rate weaken sharply, capital will certainly flow out of China. This, in turn, may further strengthen the expectation and increase the depreciation of RMB exchange rate in the market, and further increase capital outflow, thus forming a vicious circle. This kind of reasoning is not an armchair talk, but many developing countries have encountered it.

Moreover, if the RMB exchange rate weakens sharply, the achievement of RMB internationalization in the past few years will be zero. Since the weakening of the RMB exchange rate in November last year and the lack of Renminbi in the world, the inflow of RMB has outflowed in cross-border settlement. If international investors are convinced that the RMB exchange rate will depreciate sharply, for them, RMB assets will become a hot potato, and the renminbi flowing out in a few years will flow back in a short time.

At present and for some time to come, it is most in line with our interests to maintain the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate through a managed floating exchange rate regime.

　　 RMB should be accelerated foreign exchange market build

Of course, maintaining the relative stability of the RMB exchange rate is neither fixed nor arbitrary. Returning to the US dollar exchange rate arrangement is not necessary, nor is it consistent with the established direction of exchange rate marketization. The marketization reform of RMB exchange rate is one of the established contents of China's comprehensive deepening reform, and it is one of the conditions to give full play to the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources. Of course, for a currency such as our foreign exchange market is still not perfect and the price elasticity of exchange rate is not enough, the exchange rate marketization should be pushed forward step by step, and it needs to undergo a relatively long process. Compared with the previous period, since the beginning of last year, the fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar has been more pronounced, and the fluctuation has really fluctuated up to 3.7%. I predict that this year's wave is expected to reach 5%, the low point has been lower than last year's low point, the personal estimate is about 6.30 yuan / dollar, the high point is also likely to be higher than last year's high point, breaking 6 is not impossible.

The current market situation once again reminds us that it is more important than RMB exchange rate fluctuations to accelerate the construction of RMB foreign exchange market. For the post open countries, because the market reform is often relatively slow, coupled with the smaller scale of the domestic economy, it is difficult to have a scale, breadth and price elasticity of the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the exchange rate expectations in the market tend to be one-sided, and the exchange rate of the local currency has plummeted and plummeted, which will have a serious adverse impact on the domestic economy.