How To Understand The GDP Of "Upgrading Quality And Slowing Down" 7%?

For example, whether the impact of this year's "government work report" will be a reprint in 2012 for Hongkong shareholders? This year Premier Li Keqiang lowered the target of economic growth from 7.5% in 2014 to 7% in 2012. The same day, the state-owned enterprises index and hang seng index fell by more than 1%. This happened in 2012. Premier Wen Jiabao also lowered the growth target of GDP from 8% to 7.5%. From that day on, the index of state-owned enterprises in Hongkong dropped from 9020 to September 5, 2012, only 2280, or 25.3%. It is estimated that this "two sessions" effect will not repeat itself this year, because the reduction of domestic GDP index is the main content of the new economic normal. There is no need to worry too much about the market.

In order to ensure steady economic growth in 2015, the government focused on the two main points of investment and expansion of domestic consumption. For example, in terms of investment, the investment in infrastructure is the key point. Railway investment should be maintained at more than 800 billion yuan, and the new mileage will be more than 8000 kilometers. Major water projects will have 27 projects in the new form, and the investment scale of major water projects under construction will exceed 800 billion yuan. China Railway Corporation disclosed earlier that the railway investment amounted to 808 billion 800 million yuan in 2014, and the number of new production lines was 8427 kilometers.

It can be said that for a vast developing country with large economic disparity, although the infrastructure construction in the developed coastal areas is developing at an extremely high speed, it is also quite large. However, for the remote and economically backward areas, the infrastructure investment is far from the actual economic development needs. Increasing the input of major infrastructures in these areas will play an important role in the economic development of these areas and narrowing the gap between different regions of the country, despite the high cost, long recovery cycle and slow effect. 2008-2009 years ago, when I was in Guizhou and Yunnan, I made similar observations. The current progress is faster than what I put forward.

Also, in the report, we should encourage the following kinds of consumption to support. Economics In order to ensure economic growth. For example, information industry, tourism and leisure, green economy, housing, educational style, and promoting the integration of three networks. Among them, the more specific is to stabilize housing consumption, that is, to promote housing consumption and improve sexual consumption.

It can be said that there is nothing wrong with stabilizing the housing consumption as an important way to expand the consumption of residents. Because the basic necessities of life for every inhabitant is the basic necessities of life for every inhabitant, which is the most basic consumption of every inhabitant. The housing sector is more important, not only because the value of housing purchase accounts for a high proportion of the total household income, but also that it can be replaced by less.

But now it is necessary to re integrate the "housing consumption" of residents into the "housing consumption" of the government to stabilize the economic growth. The government must solve the following problems. First, housing in the National Bureau of statistics report is never consumption but investment. Since the report of the National Bureau of statistics can force the real housing consumption of residents into investment, if it does not change or return to the fact itself, then the government will have a problem as a series of basic data for macroeconomic decisions. And the government will use this problem data as the data. Macro decision making How can China's economy make the right track? For example, because the housing of the National Bureau of statistics is investment, there is no relationship between how house prices rise and even if they go up to the sky, they are not related to residents' consumer price index. In real economic life a few years ago, house prices could rise by 10 times, while household consumption index fell or fell. If housing is related to consumption, housing prices will rise. CPI Now, when the real interest rate is negative interest rate, how can the central bank lower the loan interest rate and drop it? The problem is very serious now.

Two, if housing is consumption, then how can this kind of housing consumption be defined? Is it only the stipulation that holding a house and two houses in advance can be said to be consumption? If so, the government will underestimate the intelligence of the general public too much. It is very simple that residents can invest in a single apartment, so they can invest more than one housing. Not to mention holding two or more apartments. In fact, how many housing units a resident owns is not the most important thing for consumption or investment. What is important is whether there are any corresponding tax policies for the residents' housing after investment. If there is no tax on housing investment income, if not, the residents' housing consumption encouraged in the report will go on the road of crazy speculation in the early years. If the housing market is encouraged to encourage the development of the real estate market, the market will surely go back to the real estate bubble.

Three, under the current high housing prices, is it possible for the vast majority of the people to have housing consumption? Because the current domestic economic problems are still real estate. Because the price of housing market has risen rapidly in recent years, not only has the overwhelming majority of people squeezed out of the housing market, but they have no access to it. Even if some people can buy houses, they are also supported by the wealth of generations. This not only caused serious consumption crowding out effect of the whole country, but also caused a serious unfair distribution of wealth in the whole society. If housing prices do not return to reason and do not return to the level of consumers' bids, it will be a mere empty talk to encourage residents' housing consumption at this time. In other words, this kind of government encourages housing consumption, and even encourages the goal of improving housing consumption, or to protect GDP, not for people's livelihood. The content of the report is very good. It is mainly based on people's livelihood. In order to improve the living conditions of the general public, it can only make the residents enter the market under high housing prices. Therefore, the GDP of "upgrading quality and slowing down" must redefine the housing consumption of residents, and adopt good policies to protect them.

If housing speculation is still encouraged to ensure GDP growth, if housing is still a tool to invest in making money, it will certainly bring endless calamity to China's economic belt. Such a GDP can't improve the quality and slow down.