Big Mo Huaxin: 2015 Theme Plates Continue To Be Active

2014

From 2109 at the beginning of the year to 3165 at the end of the year, the annual increase was 50%.

Da Mo Huaxin Fund said that in the new year, the theme plate will continue to be active, and the future market will gradually switch from increasing the capital admission to paying attention to the improvement of the economic fundamentals, while the emerging plate and theme plate will provide relatively more investment opportunities.

The current market is driven by liquidity.

Starting from the middle of 2014, but with the rising stock index, the core economic indicators such as industrial added value and CPI show that the economic boom is constantly declining, reflecting that the performance improvement of listed companies is not obvious, but it is not obvious.

PE was constantly pulled up.

Judging from the current situation, this liquidity driven market has no signs of ending.

The property market, which accounts for the vast majority of Chinese assets, is still in the doldrums. Nominal interest rates have declined, but under the background of deflation risk, the downward trend of real interest rates is not significant.

Funds can not find suitable investment direction in the real estate market and the real economy. It is estimated that future funds will continue to flow into the stock market with profitable effects and continue to push the stock market up.

At the same time, the fund driven market is expected to switch to fundamentals.

In the short term, the economy is still relatively sluggish, but the fundamentals of the economy are indeed changing.

At the same time, the government has taken measures such as "one belt and one way" to solve the excess capacity of traditional industries, enrich the sources of investment through the PPP mode, and guide social resources to new industries.

Big Mo Huaxin is relatively optimistic about investment opportunities in emerging industries.

In the second half of 2014, A shares were mainly blue chips such as finance and construction, and entered the market in 2015. The market switched to emerging markets such as computers and media. The valuation of blue chips and emerging sectors had been increased to varying degrees. However, from a sustainable perspective, the growth of Xinxing plate is huge.

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Shanghai and Hong Kong have been opened for hundreds of days. "Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong" has attracted more and more attention as the next step of possible opening up after the Shanghai and Hong Kong links.

CICC released research report today that, with the experience and technical preparation of Shanghai and Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Hong Kong through the launch will be completed, and is expected to be launched in the second half of this year.

CICC pointed out that unlike the Shanghai market, the Shenzhen market has not only the main board, but also small and medium sized boards and gem.

The number of listed companies is 1629 (main board, medium and small board, gem 468, 740, 421), and the total market capitalization of A shares is 14 trillion and 800 billion (VS).

The Shanghai market is 29.3 trillion yuan.

Compared with the Shanghai market, the number of Listed Companies in Shenzhen market is more; the average market value is small; private and growing enterprises account for a relatively high proportion; growth industries such as technology, medicine, consumption and other industries account for a relatively high proportion; in recent years, the average profit growth is faster; pactions are also more active, turnover rate is significantly higher than that of Shanghai market; and from the performance of stock prices, it is obviously better than Shanghai market in recent years, but the average valuation is also significantly higher than the Shanghai market.

CICC expects Shenzhen Hong Kong through mechanism to be comparable to Shanghai and Hong Kong through mechanism, but may be slightly more flexible.

具體來說：(1)北向交易總額度也有望是3000 億，或者視深港通推出之時滬港通額度使用情況與滬港通現有總額度一起有所擴大;(2)北向交易涵蓋的股票：預計有兩種可能性，一種可能性是類似滬港通的機制，覆蓋深市相對大盤的股票并以相應指數的成份股和A/H 兩地上市的股票為主(可能共涵蓋308 支股票，市值占比約49%);第二種可能性是涵蓋數量更多的股票，如以深圳1000 指數成份股為主(市值占比約82%，與滬港通覆蓋的股票占上海市場的總市值比例相當);(3)南向交易覆蓋的股票：盡管在深港通推出的同時，滬港通與深港通南向交易覆蓋股票比當前覆蓋范圍可能有所擴大，但估計出于保護投資者的目的，其范圍也很難大幅擴充至包括香港上市的市值較小的股票;(4)參與者門檻：預計北向交易的參與者沒有限制，但南向交易的參與門檻可能有望與滬港通機制一起有所下調

。

According to CICC, similar to Shanghai and Hong Kong, the potential beneficiary shares of Shenzhen and Hong Kong include: (1) directly benefiting from the expansion of brokers and exchanges; (2) the relatively unique stocks of Shenzhen and Hongkong market relative to the other market; (3) QFII favors or "Shanghai Hong Kong Tong" active stocks similar deep market and Hongkong market stocks; 4) stocks with relatively large A/H spreads and so on.

The above categories are not mutually exclusive and may overlap.