Pi Haizhou: Interest Rate Cuts Give The Stock Market Positive Energy

On the evening of February 28th, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rate for deposit and lending has dropped by 0.25 percentage points since March 1, 2015, of which the one-year lending rate has been reduced to 5.35%, and the one-year deposit rate has dropped to 2.5%. This is the first time the central bank has cut interest rates this year, and the second time the central bank has cut interest rates in the last three months.

However, unlike last November 22nd's rate cut, the last rate cut was obviously unexpected. And this time the rate cut is basically in the market expectations. Even the trend of some stocks has already responded to this interest rate cut ahead of schedule. Because of this, in the first trading day after the current rate cut, that is, March 2nd trading, the trend of A shares did not appear to be a pleasant trend. On the same day, it basically showed a pattern of concussion, but the late Shanghai stock index rose only 0.78%, much lower than the 1.85% increase in the first day of the first interest rate cut.

Nonetheless, the positive energy of the A share market will not be denied. After all, the central bank's interest rate cut will help reduce the financing costs of enterprises, which is conducive to enhancing the efficiency of enterprises. Moreover, the central bank's interest rate cuts are also aimed at hedging the CPI downward. In order to guard against the risk of deflation, it is also conducive to stabilizing the macro-economy at a low level. This is for equity market Of course, it has a positive impact. Moreover, the central bank has repeatedly cut interest rates and lowered its accuracy. This is also a manifestation of loose monetary policy, which is also conducive to increasing the source of stock market funds.

However, investors should also realize that the interest rate cut effect on the A share market is not the same as the last rate cut. The last rate cut triggered. A shares A round of mad bull market, but this rate cut is difficult to repeat the story of the last time, "rich and capricious" market again in the A shares staged the possibility is very small.

First of all, as a "capricious" market, it is necessary to use "money" as the precondition, but the current market is obviously not as flooding as it was in November and December last year. As in December 9th last year, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares daily turnover amounted to 12665 billion yuan, such a huge deal in the short term is difficult to re appear. Although the central bank has cut interest rates again, it has tightened up earlier. Capital leverage After that, especially when banks strengthened the supervision of the flow of credit capital to the stock market, there was little possibility that bank funds would flow to the stock market in large quantities. This makes it difficult for the current stock market to be "capricious" as it did in November and December last year.

Secondly, after the last round of mad bull market, the weight of the "pigs" flying at that time has increased significantly. Take the A+ H-share company as an example, the share price of the A share company has become a premium transaction from the original discount transaction, and the current premium rate still exceeds 20%. As for the leader of the last round of the stock market, the stock price has overdrawn the growth of the stock market after the double market. Therefore, these stocks continue to rise in relatively limited space, at least not the last wave of rising market space.

In addition, at the moment when the annual "two sessions" are held, the stock market is facing the threat of "major conference curse". From past experience, the stock market usually goes out of the market every time a major conference is held. Or at the beginning of a major conference or when the major conference is about to end, the index tends to move out of the downward trend. Therefore, although the stock market has a favorable interest rate cut, investors will still be cautious when facing the "two sessions". Therefore, under this mindset, investors' enthusiasm for catching up will be limited, let alone usher in a new round of "mad cow" market.