The Debt Crisis In Europe And The United States Hit &Nbsp In Succession; The Turning Point Of Tight Monetary Policy Loomed.

CPI is more innovative and inflationary pressure is still high; the US rating has suffered.

"I emphasize again that no increase in interest rates will raise the reserve requirement.

9, we will make preparations for the reduction of reserves in the end of -10.

In August 11th, Sheng Hongqing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Everbright Bank (601818) said.

Sheng Hongqing's view is not isolated. Guoxin Securities macroeconomic analyst Lin Songli told reporters that the new liquidity in the second half of the year was lower than the first half of the year. The pressure of the central bank's recovery fund was greatly reduced, and the monetary policy in the second half of this year will be fine-tuning.

The latest State Council meeting also revealed new

Raising interest rates is fading away

6.5% of CPI is new high again, but it did not wait to raise interest boots.

On the contrary, signals at home and abroad show that interest rates are increasing.

Judging from the international situation, the credit rating of US sovereign debt has been lowered, and the European debt situation has worsened. In recent days, the global stock market has plummeted. On the 10 day, the three major stock markets in Europe have fallen sharply. The French and German stock markets have fallen by more than 5%, and the London stock market has fallen 3.05%.

New York's stock market has also plunged more than 4%.

Commodity prices also fell across the board, and the pressure on imported inflation slowed sharply.

At the same time, the United States announced that low interest rates will continue until 2013, allowing some institutions to lower interest rates expectations for China.

The situation in China is also slightly stable.

Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price department of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the current inflection point of price operation is obvious. It is estimated that China's food prices will continue to run high and stable in the second half of this year.

The key to judging the inflection point of inflation is the increase in food chain.

As a result, the rise of CPI in July confirmed that Zhou Wangjun's price was close to inflection point. In July, the CPI of food increased by 1.2%, the non food increased by 0.1%, and the price of the whole chain rose by 0.5%.

Including China Merchants Securities (600999), Anxin securities and many other reports, inflation reached the top in July, and will slow down in 8 and September. But the whole three quarter will remain at a high level. If we want to really come down, we will have to wait until October.

From the open market operation, in August 9th, the central bank's open market operation issued 2 billion yuan 1 year central bank votes, the amount was slightly enlarged over the previous period of 1 billion yuan, and the winning rate continued unchanged at 3.4982%.

However, the 28 day repo operation volume to 83 billion yuan, and has been suspended for many weeks before this variety, the last time the same period of the repurchase operation in July 19th.

In August 11th, the central bank issued 7 billion yuan and 3 month central bank votes, with a 6 billion increase in circulation.

On that day, the central bank carried out a 30 billion yuan 91 day repo operation, winning the bid interest rate of 3.08%.

The 91 day period has been suspended for three weeks.

Statistics show that in August 8th -8 14, this week there will be 83 billion yuan central bank bills expired, 109 billion yuan repurchase expires, a total of 192 billion yuan due funds, is the largest single week maturity of funds in the past two months.

This week, the central bank issued a total of 9 billion yuan for the 113 billion yuan repurchase operation, that is, the central bank returned a total of 122 billion yuan a week.

The reason why the open market operation can be carried out freely is: 1.

Monetary policy to be determined

January 1 has been "interrupted" once, the pace of interest rate moves away, monetary policy is turning from "peak" to "inflection point".

"The second half of the new liquidity is lower than the first half of the year, the central bank's recovery funds pressure has been greatly reduced."

Lin Songli said that in the first half of the year, the pressure on the return of funds was very large. The expired capital of the open market was 3 trillion and 700 billion, plus the amount of foreign exchange held, the total amount of funds needed to be withdrawn from the open market was about 5 trillion and 780 billion.

The 6 increase in the deposit reserve ratio basically recovered the liquidity injection caused by foreign exchange holdings.

In the first half of the year, the central bank's open market was 2 trillion and 600 billion, so the first half of the market was 1 trillion and 100 billion.

"Under the influence of the European debt crisis, it is estimated that the foreign exchange occupation in the second half of the year will be lower than the monthly average level of 350 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a monthly average of less than 300 billion yuan, but it will be higher than 250 billion yuan. The total foreign exchange occupation in the second half of the year is about 1 trillion and 500 billion -1.8 trillion."

Lin Songli expects that in the second half of the year, the 1 trillion and 300 billion of the open market's maturity will be 2 trillion and 800 billion. The new liquidity in the second half of this year is expected to be 2 trillion and 800 billion, a significant decrease of 3 trillion over the first half of the year.

"A decrease in new liquidity means a reduction in the pressure on the central bank to return the funds," he said.

Lin Songli further pointed out that one of the fine-tuning contents is to suspend the monthly registration.

Recently, the annual meeting of the financial regulatory authorities also heard rumors of fine-tuning policies. According to media reports, the overall monetary policy in the future is hard to relax.

With inflation likely to peaked, monetary policy or appropriate fine-tuning in the second half of the year will adopt a "directional easing" approach, appropriately relax restrictions on financing conditions, and give financing policies to agriculture, rural areas, small and medium enterprises and affordable housing.

"The so-called directional easing mentioned above also has corresponding credit preferential policies under the tight policy."

A city commercial bank credit officer said that if there is no further policy, it can not be turned to directional easing.

"When CPI has an inflection point and the global financial market has a sharp" resonance ", it will enter a period of observation and will not immediately turn to another policy trend.

One industry insider said that in a "global village", it is difficult for a country's monetary policy to get out of the "independent market", and it is necessary for all countries to strengthen macro policy communication and coordination.

In the short term, China's monetary policy or enter the vacuum period.