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Central Bank Sends Important Anticipation Signal To Market

2011/8/13 18:36:00 41

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August 12th

Central Bank

In the two quarter of this year, the implementation of China's monetary policy report pointed out that the implementation of a sound monetary policy, adhere to the basic orientation of regulation unchanged, continue to stabilize the overall price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control.

In this regard, industry experts pointed out that this is the central bank issued to the market stable inflation expectations signal.

The position of the central bank is consistent with the "efforts to bring prices down" put forward by the executive meeting of the State Council 3 days ago.

As we all know, in the first half of this year, the central bank in accordance with the unified deployment of the State Council, around the maintenance

price

The general level is basically stable. The primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control is to implement prudent monetary policy, comprehensively and alternately use quantity and price instruments and macro Prudential policy tools, raise the deposit reserve rate for the 6 time, raise the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate for the 3 time, carry out the open market operation flexibly, enhance the flexibility of the open market operation interest rate, and implement the differential reserve requirements for some financial institutions with low capital adequacy ratio, excessive credit growth and increased risk of Pro cyclical risks, strengthen liquidity management, and effectively guide the quantity of credit delivery.

Under the combined action of a number of regulatory measures, the growth rate of money supply has generally declined, and the growth of loans to financial institutions has returned to normal, and the structure of credit delivery has been further optimized, and the equilibrium of delivery has also increased significantly.

In the first half of this year, China's economic growth was orderly pformed from policy stimulus to self growth, and continued to develop towards the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Statistics show that consumer demand remains stable, investment in fixed assets grows faster, and imports and exports generally grow steadily and rapidly. However, domestic inflation expectations are still strong, and the basis for stabilizing prices is not strong enough.

In particular, the newly released economic and financial data in July showed that although the growth of M2 in the end of 7 was 14.7%, the yuan loans increased by 492 billion 600 million yuan in the month, and the growth of money and credit went back to normal, but CPI continued to rise, rising 6.5% compared with the same period last year, hitting a new high.

The rising domestic labor costs and resource product prices will constitute the upward thrust of prices over a long period of time.

In addition, in the past two years, in response to the international financial crisis, the scale of investment in China has expanded significantly, and there are more projects under construction. The aggregate demand is still at a relatively fast growth level, and the internal expansion and expansion pressures are greater.

In the second quarter of this year, the central bank's questionnaire survey on bankers showed that financial institutions' project reserves were still large, and the demand for corporate credit was relatively high, and loans still had pressure of expansion.

To curb inflation obviously requires macro policy to grasp the strength and rhythm.

At the same time, this year, in the complex and varied domestic and foreign

Macroscopic

Under the environment, the net inflow pressure has increased, and foreign exchange reserves have increased rapidly.

By the end of 6, the balance of the country's foreign exchange reserves was 31975 billion US dollars, up 30.3% over the same period last year.

Under the combined effect of economic fundamentals and spreads and expected exchange earnings, China will continue to maintain a net inflow of foreign exchange funds in the second half of this year.

"Especially when the new growth engines of the major economies are not yet formed, the economy is relatively weak, and the fiscal problems are highlighted, the extremely loose international monetary conditions can hardly be changed in the short term. A large amount of capital may still flow into the fast growing emerging economies, and the trend of International commodity prices is also uncertain. The influence of external import factors still exists.

Guo Tianyong, director of the Bank of China (601988) industry research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, said: "like most emerging market countries, China will still face the challenge of curbing inflation and preventing short-term cross-border capital fluctuations.

E Yongjian, a researcher at the Bank of Communications (601328) Financial Research Center, said that considering the US will maintain ultra-low interest rates and possibly even introduce QE3, the capital inflow pressure and imported inflation pressure will continue to be larger in the future.

Therefore, China's monetary policy is also difficult to relax.

China's monetary policy needs to be carefully balanced and foresight to grasp. The overall tone remains stable.

In this regard, the monetary policy implementation report in the two quarter of the central bank is also redefined. The next stage will be based on the unified deployment of the State Council and the theme of scientific development, in order to speed up the pformation of the economic development way as the main line, implement a good stable monetary policy, and continue to stabilize the general level of prices as the primary task of macro regulation and control, and adhere to the basic orientation of regulation and control.

Rational use of interest rate, exchange rate, open market operation, deposit reserve ratio and macro Prudential Management and other policy tools to maintain a reasonable scale of social financing.

At the same time, the central bank also said that we should strengthen the observation and analysis of the economic situation at home and abroad, grasp the intensity and rhythm of policies, improve the pertinence, flexibility and foresight of policies, consolidate the results of pre regulation and control, scientifically assess the current and expected effects of policies, handle the steady and rapid economic growth, readjust the economic structure and management.

inflation

The relationship between expectations.

"As the central bank has said, under the circumstances of rising prices, the financing interest rates of SMEs will rise, and the pressure they will bear will be greater.

Once prices are effectively controlled, the pressure will decrease.

The price problem is still a major problem.

"E Yong Jian believes that considering the difficulties in the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises and export enterprises in China, the possibility of loosen credit in specific areas is greater.

At the same time, the financial sector should continue to increase financial and tax support for small and medium-sized enterprises, innovate support methods, and actively create a fair and relaxed development environment for SMEs.

Financial management departments should also ensure that small and medium financial institutions serve small and medium-sized enterprises in terms of system design, and establish and improve institutional mechanisms and financing environment conducive to the financing of SMEs.