Industrial Cluster: Brazil Becomes The World'S Largest Cotton Export Country

According to the analysis of the supply and demand forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in July, Brazil's cotton export volume is expected to reach 12.3 million bales in 2023/24, becoming the world's largest cotton export country for the first time. Brazil's cotton output more than doubled in seven years, reaching 14.6 million bales in 2023/24.

In the past decade, with the improvement of planting technology (transgenic cotton seeds), Brazil's cotton yield has increased, and the cotton harvest area has also increased significantly. Under the guidance of the above long-term trends, combined with good weather conditions and stable production input costs, Brazil's cotton yield this year hit a record high.

At the same time, the increase in domestic cotton consumption in Brazil failed to absorb the increased supply. Over the past seven years, Brazil's cotton exports have continued to increase, surpassing Australia and India, and now surpassing the United States, with the export volume jumping from the fourth place in the world to the first place in the world. Brazil provided out of season cotton supply for the last time in the world. The cotton production in the southern hemisphere only accounted for 20% of the world, and most of them came from Brazil. Brazil's cotton exports are driven by the devaluation of the domestic currency, and have price advantages in the export market.

Since 1993/94, the United States has been the world's largest cotton export country. Since then, the domestic cotton consumption of the United States has declined from 10.3 million bales to 1.9 million bales in 2023/24, and the proportion of exports in output has increased from 30% to 80%. Therefore, although the United States has the second or third largest cotton output in the world, the United States has been the world's largest cotton export country in the past three decades.

The level of American cotton export is mainly affected by the change of cotton production. Texas accounts for more than half of the US cotton output. In 2023/24, the yield of Texas cotton will rise due to drought, and the US cotton output will fall to the lowest level in 40 years. In 2024/25, if the weather is normal, the American cotton output is expected to recover, and the export volume will return to the first place in the world. However, the weather in Texas is still unstable this year, and Brazil may still be the largest exporter. At present, the cotton harvest in Brazil has begun, and the harvest area and output are expected to hit a new record.