Cotton Association Of India (CAI): Analysis On The Data Of Raising India'S Cotton Production Estimate

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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) released the final estimate of cotton production in 2022/23 (October September), which was 31.8 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), slightly higher than the 31.1 million bales estimated in July and 34.4 million bales estimated initially.

This is inconsistent with the government's third estimate of 34.3 million packages in 2022/23.

As the output of Punjab (25000 packages), Gujarat (241000 packages), Maharashtra (71000 packages), Trengana (50000 packages), Andhra Pradesh (140000 packages), Karnataka (150000 packages), Tamil Nadu (45000 packages) and Rajasthan (50000 packages) has increased compared with the previous estimate, the estimated output has been raised.

CAI said that this estimate was based on the results of the crop committee meeting on October 7.

Traders and industry participants pointed out that there is a huge difference between CAI and government estimates for 2022/23. It is reported that farmers hope to get better prices and reduce production as they did last year.

In 2021/22, the cotton price will exceed 100000 rupees per kandi (1 kandi=365 kg). In September, cotton was traded at 59500-63750 rupees in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Trengana, Andhra Pradesh and other major markets.

According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, farmers will plant 12.4 million hectares of cotton in 2023/24, compared with 12.8 million hectares in the same period last year.

As the Ministry of Agriculture is sorting out the data, the annual output data will be released at any time. Normally, the government will release the first estimated harvest at the Rabbi meeting at the end of September or two weeks ago.

CAI said that as of September, India's cotton export forecast for 2022/23 had dropped to 1.55 million bales, the lowest level since 2004/05.

The cotton production and consumption committee initially estimated that the export of cotton was 3 million bales, but as the global economy, especially China, was affected, the shipment volume was hit.

Similarly, the import volume is 1.25 million bales, 250000 bales lower than the preliminary estimate in 2022/23, and 150000 bales lower than the estimated 1.4 million bales in 2021/22.