Market Analysis: Production Dynamic Analysis Of China'S Cotton Textile Industry In March

[summary of this month] according to the tracking data of China Cotton Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "China Cotton Industry Association"), in March 2022, the downstream demand was weak, the purchase and sales were slow, the domestic cotton prices rose and fell, the cotton yarn and cotton price fell, and the utilization rate of weaving equipment decreased.

Enterprise

February is the Spring Festival holiday. Compared with February, raw material purchase and consumption of cotton textile enterprises increased in March, the growth rate of raw material consumption was higher than that of purchase, and the raw material inventory decreased; The output and sales volume of yarn and cloth increased. The increase of sales volume was less than that of output, and the inventory of yarn and cloth increased.

I. raw material procurement and inventory

(I) raw material procurement

Among them, the purchasing volume of raw materials decreased by 22.25% compared with that of the Central Plains cotton purchasing enterprises, with an increase of 22.25% compared with that of the Central Plains cotton purchasing enterprises; Non cotton fiber procurement increased by 29.46% month on month. In March, ice cotton futures had a strong forced position market, driving Zheng cotton futures higher. However, in the case of insufficient downstream demand, the domestic cotton spot price was stable and weak, the enthusiasm of textile enterprises to purchase cotton decreased, and the purchase volume of non cotton fiber increased.

From the perspective of raw material prices, in March, foreign cotton prices rose sharply, domestic cotton prices fell, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was inverted. On March 31, the main contract of Zheng cotton futures was 21755 yuan / ton, up 1035 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; The spot price of domestic standard cotton was 22550 yuan / ton, up 255 yuan / ton month on month; The cotook a index was 156.55 cents / pound, up 21.9 cents / pound on a month on month basis, with 1% tariff price of 24320 yuan / ton, and 3400 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices was inverted by 1770 yuan / ton. The price of non cotton fiber was relatively stable. Affected by the rise of raw materials and manufacturing costs, the price of viscose staple fiber rose. On March 31, the price was 13300 yuan / ton, up 250 yuan / ton month on month; The price of direct spinning polyester staple fiber fluctuated with crude oil. On March 31, the price was 7770 yuan / ton, up 125 yuan / ton month on month.

(2) raw material consumption and inventory

The tracking data shows that the raw cotton consumption of cotton textile enterprises increased by 26.17% month on month, of which raw cotton consumption increased by 23.71% and non cotton fiber consumption increased by 30.24%. As of the end of March, raw material inventory decreased by 3.30% month on month and 20.79% year-on-year. Among them, raw cotton inventory decreased by 3.48% month on month and 22.82% year on year; Non cotton fiber inventory decreased by 2.82% month on month and 15.03% year on year. The overall raw material inventory is at a low level, cotton prices fluctuate at a high level, textile enterprises are affected by cash flow tension and rising risk aversion, and other factors, the use of non cotton fiber increases.

2、 Product production

The tracking data showed that the output of yarn increased by 25.93% month on month and decreased by 0.65% year on year; Cloth output increased 29.32% month on month and 6.50% year on year. It is mainly affected by the low base of Spring Festival holidays in February.

By the end of March, the utilization rate of spinning equipment of tracking enterprises was 94.41%, with a month on month increase of 0.92 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.92 percentage points; The utilization rate of weaving equipment was 92.73%, increased by 0.3% month on month and 0.76% on year. Among them, 86% of the enterprises whose utilization rate of spinning equipment is higher than 85%, which is increased by 2% month on month; Enterprises with weaving equipment utilization rate higher than 85% accounted for 81%, down 1% month on month. Due to the scarcity of orders and the multi-point spread of domestic epidemic, the startup of textile enterprises has been affected, and the shutdown has been reduced in some parts, resulting in a decline in the startup rate.

3. Product sales and inventory

The sales volume of ring yarn and ring yarn increased by 28.80% and 77.80% respectively compared with that of ring yarn. It is mainly affected by the low base in February.

At the same time, the prevention and control of epidemic situation also had a certain impact on the production and delivery of enterprises. The prices of yarn and cloth deviated from the prices of raw materials, showing a downward trend. On March 31, the price of 32 cotton combed yarn was 28785 yuan / ton, down 265 yuan / ton month on month; The price of 30 pure viscose yarn was 17860 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton month on month; 32 pure polyester yarn price 12950 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton month on month; The twill price of 32 * 32 130 * 70 2 / 1 47 "grey cotton fabric was 6.20 yuan / m, down 0.13 yuan / m on a month on month basis.

Cluster

According to the follow-up survey of the cluster situation, the cluster production and operation in March were basically consistent with the industry, and the equipment utilization rate decreased.

1、 Equipment utilization

According to the tracking data, the number of enterprises in the cluster increased by 3.2% year-on-year in March, and the number of employees decreased by 15.5% year-on-year. Among them, the number of employees in Enterprises above designated size decreased by 14.8% year-on-year.

The average equipment utilization rate of cluster enterprises is about 76%, which is 5% lower than that of the same period of last year, of which the enterprises above the designated size account for about 80%.

Production capacity and output of yarn and cloth

Tracking cluster spinning capacity increased by 7.3% and weaving capacity by 1.9% year on year.

In terms of output, the output of various yarns of cluster enterprises decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, among which enterprises above the designated size decreased by 3.1%; Cloth output increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate of Enterprises above designated size was consistent with that of cluster enterprises.

3、 Post production plan

The market of "gold, silver and four" fell through. Enterprises controlled the growth rate of inventory by reducing the start-up. High raw material prices failed to transmit to the downstream. In the short run, the market maintained a weak market.

After the Spring Festival, the market continued to be light, and the orders of enterprises were insufficient, mainly in scattered and small orders. The market maintained a weak market and production and sales were under pressure. At present, the domestic epidemic is spreading at many points. In addition to the increase of enterprise product inventory, some enterprises cut down their startup. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weak operation in the short term without the support of downstream demand.

The data in this report are all from China Cotton Textile Industry Association, involving more than 260 cotton textile enterprises and about 15 industrial clusters in China. The total spinning capacity accounts for about 75% of the national cotton textile industry, which is representative of the industry.