In March, The Three Major Indexes Of PMI Show That The Manufacturing Industry Has Rebounded Significantly

On March 31, China's purchasing manager index released by the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing showed that in March, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.9%, 56.3% and 55.3%, respectively, 1.3%, 4.9% and 3.7% higher than that of the previous month, and China's economy continued to expand 。

　　 The manufacturing industry has rebounded significantly

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that after the Spring Festival, the enterprise production accelerated to recover, and the manufacturing boom picked up significantly in March. Among the 21 industries surveyed, PMI of 17 industries is above the boom and bust line, and the prosperity has expanded compared with last month.

"The PMI of the manufacturing sector in March increased by 1.3 percentage points compared with the previous month, indicating that the momentum of economic recovery has accelerated. The changes in the sub index show that the linkage of the industrial chain has picked up, which is reflected in the enhancement of economic recovery momentum, the accelerated rise of market prices, the accelerated growth of all industries, and the coordinated recovery of large, medium and small enterprises. " China logistics information center expert Wen Tao said.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the production index and new order index were 53.9% and 53.6% respectively, higher than 2.0% and 2.1% of the previous month, indicating that the pace of expansion of production and demand in the manufacturing industry has accelerated. The two indexes of non-metallic mineral products, special equipment, electrical and mechanical equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment, instruments and meters are all higher than 55.0%, and the prosperity of production and demand of related industries has increased rapidly.

In March, imports and exports returned to the boom zone. After the Spring Festival, the domestic market production and demand release accelerated, and the world's major economies continued to recover. This month, the new export order index and import index were 51.2% and 51.1%, respectively, higher than that of last month by 2.4% and 1.5%, of which the import index rose to the highest point in recent years.

From the perspective of enterprise scale, the prosperity of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises were 52.7%, 51.6% and 50.4%, respectively, 0.5%, 2.0 and 2.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The production and operation conditions of enterprises of different sizes have improved. Although the prosperity level of small enterprises is lower than that of large and medium-sized enterprises, the expected index of production and operation activities has risen to 58.4%, indicating that small enterprises have increased confidence in the recent market development.

From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry and equipment manufacturing industry were 53.9% and 52.9%, respectively, 2.0% and 1.0% higher than that of manufacturing industry as a whole. The leading role of new kinetic energy in the development of manufacturing industry continued to show. At the same time, the employment index of the two industries rose to 51.2% and 50.5% respectively, indicating that the employment demand of related industries has increased.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the development research center of the State Council, believes that the PMI index rose in March and remained above the boom and bust line for 13 consecutive months, indicating that the economy has continued to recover. The change of PMI index in the first quarter was affected by short-term factors such as the Spring Festival. Excluding these factors, it can be considered that the trend of PMI index is generally stable, reflecting the steady recovery of the economy.

　　 The expansion of non manufacturing industries has accelerated

In March, the non manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, 4.9 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the pace of non manufacturing industry expansion accelerated.

Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, said that in March, the business activity index and new order index both rose to a high level of more than 55%, with a significant month on month increase, which was better than the same period in 2019, indicating that the recovery of supply and demand in non manufacturing industries has been strengthened.

"The business activity index of 21 industries is above 50%, which indicates that the current economic recovery is universal." Cai Jin said that driven by the rising supply and demand, terminal sales prices have risen and employment activities have improved. The sales price index and employee index have increased significantly compared with last month, indicating that the quality of economic recovery has improved. According to the change of industry data, the vitality of economic recovery is showing.

In March, the business activity index of the service industry was 55.2%, 4.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that with the consolidation of the epidemic prevention and control achievements, the continuous release of consumer demand and the accelerated recovery of the service industry. From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunication, radio and television satellite transmission service, Internet software and information technology service, monetary and financial service and other industries was operating at a high economic level of over 60.0%; the business activity index of accommodation, leasing and business services, residential services and other industries greatly affected by the local epidemic at the beginning of the year rebounded to the boom range, The operation of the industry has improved significantly. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities in the service industry is 62.9%, which has been in the high boom range of more than 60.0% for two consecutive months, indicating that service enterprises continue to be optimistic about the development of the market in the near future.

The construction industry returns to the high boom zone. In March, the weather turned warm, enterprises concentrated on construction, and the construction process of the construction industry accelerated. The business activity index of the construction industry this month was 7.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, rising to 62.3%.

Wu Wei, an expert at China Logistics Information Center, said that after the off-season correction, the construction industry continued to accelerate its growth this month, and the business activity index rose again to a high level of more than 62%. In particular, the demand for construction industry continued to rise, which means that the follow-up investment demand is expected to be stable.

　　 Attention should be paid to the rise of factor cost

It is worth noting that the price index of the manufacturing PMI index rose to the highest in recent years in March. Affected by the continuous high operation of international commodity prices, the purchasing price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials in this month were 69.4% and 59.8%, respectively, higher than 2.7% and 1.3% of the previous month.

Zhao Qinghe said that from the perspective of the industry, the purchasing price index of raw materials in petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products, general equipment, special equipment and other industries was higher than 75.0%, while the ex factory price index of chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was higher than 70.0%, and the relevant industries The pressure on industrial prices has increased. At the same time, some enterprises have reported that due to the repeated epidemic situation abroad and the sluggish international trade and economic cooperation, some imported raw materials are in short supply recently, the prices have risen significantly and the delivery period has been prolonged.

"The current factor cost continues to rise, increasing pressure on enterprises." According to Wen Tao's analysis, first, the price of raw materials has risen faster than the sales price of products. The purchase price index has been maintained at more than 66% for four consecutive months, and this month's index is 9.6% higher than the ex factory price index, so the enterprise's cost pressure is rising rapidly. Second, labor costs have risen. Enterprise surveys show that 36% of enterprises reflect high labor costs. Third, the logistics cost is high. The proportion of enterprises reflecting the high logistics cost is 33.5%, which has remained above 33% for three consecutive months.

Zhang Liqun believes that increasing costs and insufficient demand are the outstanding difficulties faced by enterprises in production and operation. He suggested that efforts should be made to improve the policy effect of expanding domestic demand, actively promote price rise, expand production and increase supply in industries.

Wen Tao suggested that we should dredge, optimize and restructure the supply chain, improve the efficiency of economic circulation, actively expand effective demand, improve the price transmission mechanism, prevent large fluctuations in market prices, and ensure the sustained and stable economic recovery momentum.