Cost Support Weakened, Polyester Prices Fell Slightly

The weak cost side and cautious downstream procurement made the domestic polyester filament market price fall slightly in March. According to the price monitoring, from the average price of various products, the decline of polyester FDY was the most obvious, with a decrease of 3.09% as of the beginning of the month, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY, with a decrease of 2.83% and 2.39% respectively.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in March, unit: yuan / ton

In terms of factories, the reference for poy150d / 48F negotiation of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 7500-7750 yuan / ton, that of fdy150d / 96F is 7700-7850 yuan / ton, and that of dty150d / 48F is 9000-9500 yuan / ton. At present, the average production and sales of factories are between 80% and 120%, and the production and sales of some hot factories can reach 200%. Polyester inventory is concentrated in 19-27 days, POY inventory is 7-10 days, FDY inventory is 12-22 days, DTY inventory is about 13-27 days.

In the raw material market, crude oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked in early March, and WTI crude oil once rose to the highest level since October 2018. However, in the middle of the year, the number of new cases in Europe increased, and the blockade measures were restarted. The market was worried that the blocked vaccination process in Europe would damage the economic recovery and fuel demand. The crude oil fell sharply, dragging down the focus of the chemical market and weakening the cost support. As of March 31, the average price of PTA spot market was 4413 yuan / ton, down 6.96% from the beginning of the month. At present, the PTA processing error has reached a historical low, and the willingness of the factory to take the initiative to carry out maintenance has been enhanced.

Recent maintenance of PTA plant in China

Due to the sharp fluctuation of raw material price, the attitude of terminal order is cautious, and the order follow-up is not good. At present, the grey fabric is in a state of accumulation. Elastic and weaving enterprises mainly prepare raw materials in the early stage. It is heard that some enterprises prepare raw materials for more than half a month. However, in recent days, the traditional market of China Light and textile city mainly uses polyester filament and spandex as raw material, and the transaction volume of spring and summer women's upper garment elastic fabric and spring and summer women's trousers polyester and ammonia elastic fabric has been partially smooth, among which a number of polyester and ammonia elastic fabrics mainly for women's trousers have been sold, and the transaction has been pushed up in recent days, and the overall market trend has been fluctuating. With DTY low elastic yarn 150D, the positioning new style illusory color local elastic fabric woven with partial polyurethane yarn and 150D (DTY + POY) composite yarn inlaid with colorful silk is favored by garment manufacturers in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Shanghai.

Analysts believe that on the cost side, OPEC will formulate a new production reduction policy at the beginning of April. Considering comprehensively, the probability of extending the production reduction is large, and the European vaccine problem will be solved, and the epidemic control will gradually improve, which will be beneficial to the crude oil market. At present, the PTA supply side maintenance is shrinking. In April, there will still be many units shut down for maintenance. The short-term operating rate is expected to remain low, the supply is tight, and the stock removal is expected to be obvious. To form a certain support for polyester. In addition, the demand for terminal procurement and speculative stock preparation is insufficient, and the follow-up of the follow-up demand is still waiting for the terminal order volume. Overall, polyester prices will rebound in April, but the range will not be too large.