How To Deduce The Logic Of The Layout Of The Landing Agencies Of The US Election?

The uncertainty of the US general election gradually eliminated, and a shares rose sharply.

On November 9, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.86% to 3373.73; the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 2.19% to 14141.15, setting a new high in more than five years; the gem index rose 2.96% to 2814 points, a three-month high.

Two months later, the turnover of the two cities broke through trillion yuan again, reaching 1083.5 billion yuan, and the net inflow of capital from the North reached 19.698 billion yuan, a new high in the year.

On the same day, semiconductor, 5g concept stocks, securities companies, shipping plate performance strong. The market deduces the logic of "Biden trading", after a sharp rise in technology stocks suppressed by the United States, such as the rise and fall of chip plate.

In fact, some funds have begun to lay out new energy and other sectors benefiting from Biden's election in the third quarter. Will the landing of the US general election strengthen the corresponding layout logic? How do fund managers see the future market? How to adjust position response?

Differences in position adjustment

China Merchants Fund believes that the sharp rise in the market on November 9 is related to the preliminary landing of the results of the US general election at the weekend and the expected easing of Sino US relations. The net inflow of funds from the North has become the main buying force.

"At the same time, the stock market of the U.S. stock market is also stimulated by the strong expectation of the US stock market and the semiconductor market. The relatively lively new energy vehicle plate in the early stage is relatively weak, which also reflects the rhythm of market plate rotation. " Private paipaipaipai net future star fund manager Xia Fengjing pointed out.

At the same time, however, there are differences in the operation of the market.

Some organizations choose to add warehouse.

"Before, we gradually increased our position to 40%. Today, we have also added 10% of our position with the market. The total position is 50%." On November 9, Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, said.

Zhao Lisong further said that the main driving force of the day's rebound was from the oversold and the rebound of technology stocks, so he took the distribution of over falling stocks and technology stocks as the focus of this rally. "I think there is a chance for a rebound in the future, but it depends on the level of market participation."

But at the same time, some institutions are reducing their positions.

"Today's (November 9) high-volume attack is really attractive. Technology stocks led by semiconductors surged. However, we reduced our position in the rally. " Quan Hong private fund general manager Li Kejie said. "Today (November 9) with such a large amount of money, people will be more popular again. But whether there is a big wave of market at the end of the year still needs to be observed. "

There are also institutional positions that are basically immobile.

"We prefer to maintain a long-term holding strategy for some of China's best assets, such as leading Internet companies and high-end liquor makers. As for the position increase, in the early stage we have some new funds, or will continue to increase positions in these two plates. " Gray investment general manager Zhang Kexing said.

"For A-shares, if Biden is elected and basically landed, there may be short-term risks in the sectors where early-stage funds pile into, such as new energy, because the general funds are laid out in advance." Zhang Kexing said that the future market continued to be optimistic about the leading stocks of the Internet and high-end consumption.

A fund manager also expressed a similar view on the new energy industry. He said that it had entered the new energy industry before the third quarter, but the recent increase was too large, so it is necessary to guard against the risk of falling back. "In the medium and long term, it is still optimistic about the new energy industry, but the current valuation is relatively high, so it is not suitable for further entry."

Different views on the future market

There are different views on the stock market.

China Merchants Fund pointed out that under the background of overseas risk mitigation, foreign capital return and sustained domestic economic recovery, the overall index still has certain upward space. Overseas, Biden's victory and separation of the two chambers may be short-term or long-term for US stocks. However, compared with Trump's "US priority", Biden may be committed to rebuilding the US's global leadership, slowing down the trade war and benefiting emerging markets.

China Merchants Fund said that domestic policy has entered a blank period, and it is expected that the domestic economic recovery will still have inertia under the condition that the export industry chain remains strong and the completion end of real estate is expected to speed up. China Merchants Fund will continue to pay attention to the opportunity of increasing optional consumption for the deep recovery of macro-economy and the improvement of business climate; and under the background that Sino US relations are expected to return to the traditional competition and cooperation relationship after Biden takes office, the valuation of some science and technology industry chains will be restored.

As a matter of fact, the sentiment of technology companies is generally optimistic.

Tong Diyi, general manager of longying fuze assets, said, "the fall of the US election results has brought about a sharp drop in national uncertainty and an obvious increase in market risk preference. Considering that there is a performance vacuum at the end of the year, technology stocks tend to be more resilient. I think the current trend is expected to continue with the stability of the external environment. "

Deng Yuxiang, director of Equity Investment Department of Furong fund, also believes that "no matter who is elected as the new president of the United States in the medium and long term, there will be no substantial change in the strategy to curb China's rise. However, in the short term, the US government's sanctions on domestic technology companies, which are forced by the US election, is expected to ease marginally."

There are also fund managers that the U.S. election is over, A-share Pro cyclical style will be further strengthened.

Liu Ankun, fund manager of the reverse strategy of RONGTONG fund, believes that the US presidential election may have become a foregone conclusion, the sentiment of A-share market has been boosted in the short term, and the pro cyclical style continues to spread. Benefiting from the export data exceeding expectations, the export chain related enterprises will continue to be strong.

"Next, the market will focus on two things Biden will do in the short term: one is epidemic prevention and the other is economic recovery. For a shares, the former will stimulate the overseas demand for medical masks, detection instruments and other epidemic prevention materials, while the latter will strengthen its pull on China's exports. "

Looking forward to the future market of a shares, Liu Ankun judged that market sentiment was boosted in the short term, and the pro cyclical style continued to spread. The October trade data released over the weekend showed that China's exports in October reached US $237.18 billion, up 11.4%, better than expected. Among them, furniture, mechanical and electrical products, and general machinery maintained a high growth rate, and the growth rate of the United States and Japan continued to increase, reflecting that the overseas supply and demand gap is still high. It is expected that the high growth of domestic exports will continue to be driven in the future. The next step is to continue to observe the impact of overseas epidemic rebound on their demand.

Xia Fengjing also said, "we expect the market will maintain a good operating situation before the end of the year. For the procyclical plate can be given some tracking attention

However, some fund managers said that the U.S. election has little impact on the direction of A-shares, so we should "give priority to me" to do a good job of investment.

Mao Junyue, chief investment officer of Xinpu assets, said, "no matter who is elected president of the United States, the general direction of China strategy is similar, and the northward fund is also a short-term behavior, which can not determine the direction of A-share. So Biden logic doesn't have continuity. Biden's election may boost technology stocks and new energy stocks, but it is difficult for individual investors to grasp how the short-term market will be interpreted. Therefore, we are still cautious about the future market. "

Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth fund, believes that "the main reason for determining the A-share market is at home. The US election is an external factor that has an impact but does not determine the trend of A-share. Industries with favorable main and external factors will become hot spots and will be catalysed. If new energy has responded in advance, when it is clear that it is good to cash in, investment speculation is expected. I think it is still necessary to "give priority to me" and carry out the layout based on the 14th five year plan. "

For the follow-up investment operation, fund managers give their own suggestions from the long-term and short-term.

Looking forward to the investment strategy in the next half year, fan Tingfang, manager of Haifutong fund, pointed out that first of all, he will continue to adhere to the track of "technology + consumption" and choose stocks with strong prosperity and good fundamentals. Specifically, in the medium and short term, we may pay more attention to some sub sectors which are greatly affected by the epidemic and have a more obvious recovery, such as traditional consumption. In addition, in the medium and long term, we will eliminate the factors of the epidemic and choose industries with a long-term prosperity, such as raw materials and drugs.

He Jinlong, chairman of Meili investment, suggested that with the landing of the external news, the uncertain factors would be gradually eliminated, and the market would become more healthy and clear. Investors can observe the changes of volume and energy in the future market, and increase or decrease positions at any time. The most important thing is to grasp the situation according to their current position. If the position is heavy, you can do t appropriately to reduce the position.

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