A "Cold Winter" Forecast, Stir The Market Lively, How Long Can The Market Heat Continue?

During this year's national day, most areas of northern China ushered in a "rare" cooling, as if it was winter overnight. The sudden cooling rapidly led to the hot sales of winter clothing fabrics, especially down jacket fabrics. Bosden, an old leading down jacket enterprise, has been very outstanding during the National Day holiday.

Taobao data shows that from October 1 to 6, the sales of bosden flagship stores increased by 574% to 19.1 million yuan, the number of sales increased by 300% to 18000 units, and the average unit price of sales increased from 613 yuan in the same period last year to 1034 yuan in 2020. The situation of both quantity and price rise of down jacket in advance tells the whole textile and garment market that the demand of winter clothing market is huge and can make a difference.

After the national day, the whole textile market was moved by the wind. The trucks loaded in the grey cloth factory had to queue up, and the trucks entering the warehouse in the dyeing factory had to queue up. The trucks in the market were not enough. Then part of the textile factory warehouse empty, no inventory, part of the dyeing factory began to burst warehouse pressure card. Is it really just a "cold winter" news, can silence for more than half a year of textile market stir so lively? It's obviously impossible.

"Collision" between goods preparation in finished product market and winter fabric order

Familiar with the fabric market all know that around October and November in the second half of the year, the finished goods spot market on the market will usher in a relatively concentrated year before the stock. This is the more common "market order" in the market. During this period, the order quantity is large, the type is limited and the duration is short.

This is the time frame now, and orders are coming more clearly than ever before. The main reason for this situation is that the foreign epidemic situation is serious, a large number of overseas clothing enterprises closed down, resulting in the clothing and fabric trade decreased significantly in the past six months compared with the previous years, now their inventory bottomed out, it is time to replenish.

In addition, the domestic fabric market, also due to the epidemic situation in the first half of the order is extremely limited, so that many domestic textile and clothing enterprises missed the spring and summer market and high inventory. The lack of confidence in the future market has led to the lack of enthusiasm in the spot market for goods preparation. Nowadays, the backlog of replenishment demand has been concentrated and all kinds of orders have been launched.

And with the current winter fabric orders encounter, a next time on the market, reached the peak of this year's market. The current textile market is attributed to the "cold winter" economy is obviously not comprehensive, but the market followed by the "cold winter" expectations wantonly hyped a little too much.

It's normal to cool down now, but it's still unknown in cold winter

Is it necessarily cold winter for snowfall and cooling in northern China recently? In fact, it is normal for the temperature to drop to freezing point and snowfall in northern China, especially in Inner Mongolia and Northeast China in the first ten days of October. In other words, the temperature in the northern part of Nina is lower than that in the northern part of this year, that is to say, it is not due to the cold weather in the northern part of the country in the early October.

And many experts believe that, This winter, "La Nina" incident is only predicted to happen, whether it will happen is still unknown. Even if the global warming does not necessarily lead to a decrease in temperature in the context of global warming. ? To say the least, even if this winter is a cold winter, it will really lead to a hot winter clothing sales, cold fabric hot? It's really hard to say!

The "old people" in the fabric market all know that the winter of 2016-2017 is predicted to be a cold winter. So at the end of 2016, the market was full of all kinds of winter fabrics, and all textile owners were preparing for the coming cold winter. As a result, that winter was indeed cold, but the winter clothes on the market did not wait for a hot sale.

Because the Spring Festival was in January that year, and it was not cold before the Spring Festival, but after the new year. But most consumers are used to buying winter clothes before the new year and preparing spring clothes after the new year. As a result, the cold weather after the year, the winter clothing sales on the market can not be compared with that before the year.

Of course, many traders feel that it does not matter whether it is really a cold winter this year, as long as we can successfully obtain orders in the near future. However, if the terminal clothing does not go smoothly, it will inevitably delay and default on the payment for goods, and may eventually "lose both sides". Moreover, the inventory of textile industry chain is nothing more than the transfer of raw materials and fabrics to clothing, which may aggravate the shortage of orders for upstream raw materials and fabrics in the coming year. ? At the end of the year, there are still a lot of things that need to be done in a calm and rational way.