Market Analysis: Textile Industry Will Continue To Recover From January To July 2020

At present, with the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control tending to be stable and the market demand at home and abroad is gradually restored, the operation of China's textile industry has improved and is in the stage of continuous recovery. On the basis of the narrower decline of industrial operation indicators and marginal improvement of major economic indicators in June, the production and supply capacity of the industry in July was further restored, and the internal and external needs were gradually warmed up. On the track of high-quality development, we continued to make steady progress, and actively built a new pattern of dual cycle industry development.

Supply is active and the decline rate of production is narrowing month by month

From the supply side, the production of China's textile industry has recovered steadily, and the decline rate has narrowed month by month. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the industrial added value of textile industry above Designated Size in China decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in January June.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Among them, the added value of textile industry decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a decrease rate of 0.8% compared with January June; the textile and clothing industry decreased by 11.9%, with a decrease rate of 0.3%; and the chemical fiber manufacturing industry decreased by 0.7%, with a decrease rate of 0.5%.

It is worth noting that due to the rapid growth of demand for epidemic prevention materials at home and abroad, the industrial textile industry has achieved positive growth in industrial added value since March, and the growth rate has been increasing continuously. According to statistics, from January to July, the industrial added value of industrial textiles industry increased by 60.0%, 2.2 percentage points higher than that from January to June.

Accordingly, as raw materials of anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing, the production of non-woven fabrics in China has increased rapidly. According to the data of National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the output of non-woven fabrics of Enterprises above designated size was 10.97%, 4.42 percentage points higher than that of January June. Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian, Hubei and Jiangsu are the top five provinces with the largest output. Except that the non-woven fabric output in Hubei Province slightly decreased by 6.83%, the growth rates of the other four provinces were 28.27%, 13.27%, 14.54% and 5.49%, respectively.

The output of chemical fiber, yarn, cloth and clothing of other major textile products decreased by 2.38%, 15.72%, 24.36% and 13.42% respectively on a year-on-year basis. Except that the growth rate of chemical fiber production decreased by 1.4 percentage points compared with January to June, the decline rates of yarn, cloth and clothing output were 0.08%, 1.57 and 0.27 percentage points lower than those in January June.

Source: National Bureau of statistics

Demand recovery, domestic and foreign demand market shows a sustained recovery trend

From the perspective of domestic demand, with the continuous consolidation of the epidemic prevention and control situation in China and the gradual recovery of residents' shopping out, China's textile and clothing domestic demand market shows a mild recovery trend. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July 2020, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitwear and textiles of units above the national quota reached 595.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%, 2.1 percentage points lower than that of January June. From January to July, the retail sales of online wear goods decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, 2.0 percentage points lower than that of January June.

Source: National Bureau of statistics

According to the statistics of China National Business Information Center, in July, the clothing retail sales of 100 key large-scale retail enterprises decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, and the decline rate was significantly narrowed by 10.2 percentage points month on month.

From the perspective of foreign demand, although the epidemic situation of Xinguan is still raging in the world, the demand for textile and clothing is slowly recovering, and the demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing is still urgent. In July, China's textile industry exports maintained growth. According to the customs express data, from January to July 2020, China's export of textiles and clothing reached 156.482 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 5.57%, 2.41 percentage points higher than that of January June. Among them, the export of textiles was US $90.08 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, with a growth rate of 3.5 percentage points higher than that of January June; the export of clothing was 66.402 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and the decline rate was 2.8 percentage points lower than that of January June.

The export of epidemic prevention materials is still supporting the growth of China's textile export. According to the customs express data, China's textile yarn and textile fabric exports decreased by 31.7% and 27.5% respectively from January to July, but the export of China's textile products including masks and protective clothing increased by 128.4% year-on-year.

Scale shrinking, investment inclines to high quality

At present, textile enterprises are still cautious about future investment, and the scale of investment in the whole industry is still shrinking. However, the willingness to invest in high-performance fibers and nonwovens has increased significantly, which helps the high-quality development of the textile industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July 2020, the completion of fixed assets investment in the textile industry will decrease by 24.5% year-on-year, 2.8% lower than that from January to June. The scale of investment in the whole industry chain is declining. The investment in the textile industry, clothing industry and chemical fiber industry decreased by 17.4%, 36.6% and 21.2% year-on-year from January to July, respectively. The decline rate of the textile industry and clothing industry was 5.0% and 1.3% lower than that in January June, and the chemical fiber industry decreased by 4.3%.

It is understood that the investment enthusiasm of high-performance fiber and nonwovens industry is high. For example, recently, the Haining Hengyi intelligent environmental protection functional fiber project with an annual output of 1 million tons was put into production, and the second phase of the new environmental protection high-quality fiber project was started, which will create an intelligent chemical plant for high-performance fiber production. Zhangye, Gansu Province, invested 6 billion yuan to construct the carbon fiber equipment manufacturing (Zhangye carbon Valley) project, and built an industrial base of 4000 tons of T800 high-performance carbon fiber and carbon fiber equipment manufacturing. China's Jilin national carbon fiber industrial park project and Jilin chemical fiber 15000 tons carbon fiber project are launched. By the end of the 14th five year plan, the production capacity of 45500 tons of carbon fiber and 17000 tons of carbon fiber products will be realized. Xiantao, Hubei Province, is promoting the transformation and upgrading of nonwovens industry in an all-round way, building a 14.7 square kilometer non-woven characteristic town, and promoting the transformation of local non-woven industry from industrial level to medical level. With a total investment of 6 billion yuan, Fujian has started the construction of Jianyang sanitary materials industrial park. It is expected that one chemical fiber enterprise, two non-woven fabric enterprises, three terminal product enterprises such as protective clothing, one supporting equipment manufacturer and one supporting numerical control production enterprise will be settled in Fujian, forming a complete industrial chain cluster of sanitary materials.