PV Group Collective Carnival Agencies Predict That The Four Quarter Of The Industry Is Expected To Erupt

A shares must be one of the most active sectors in recent months.

On June 29th and 30, the PV index continued to float for two consecutive days. Since June, the index has risen 9.77%, and related stocks have also created a new stock price.

Earlier, during the Dragon Boat Festival, the State Energy Bureau announced the results of the 2020 national subsidy bidding for photovoltaic power generation projects. According to the shortlist, the total number of projects to be included in the scope of bidding subsidies totaled 434, the total scale was 25.97GW, an increase of 13.95% over the same period, of which the common ground power station 25.63GW, distributed project 0.34GW. The average electricity subsidy was 0.033 yuan, a decrease of 0.032 yuan compared with 2019.

As the scale growth and tariff subsidies dropped, exceeding market expectations, the market reaction was strong after the bidding project was officially released.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics, since June, as of the evening of 30, the total price of photovoltaic group Longji shares has risen 26.46%, and its market value has broken through 153 billion 632 million yuan. The Tongwei shares, central shares and Jiejia Wei Chong also rose 26.86%, 27.98% and 27.92% respectively. Among the 10 photovoltaic stocks landing on A shares, Trina Solar, Jingke technology and so on have also entered tens of billions of shares. Market capitalization club.

"On the one hand, from the stock market as a whole, it is a big backdrop for the group to keep warm, such as games, medicine and so on. The photovoltaic sector is also one of the main positions in the old bull market. On the other hand, from the industry point of view, the core logic is that the three quarter PV installation is not bad in the off-season, and the introduction of the bidding project is an important catalyst. Beijing, a medium-sized brokerage, new industry analyst, said.

Photovoltaic industry is now getting warmer

Early this year, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and price cuts, photovoltaic sector valuation continued to bottom out, from three to April, some photovoltaic faucets have plummeted over 20%-40%. However, with the recent improvement of the epidemic situation and the continuous improvement of policy benefits, the PV sector began to overshoot and rebound.

At the end of 5 this year, the national Power Grid Corp announced that the annual capacity of PV and wind power increased by 48.5 gigas and 36.7 gigas respectively. Among them, the added capacity of PV increased by 62% compared with the actual installed capacity in 2019, after 53.4GW in 2017.

This move in many industry insiders, it is expected to support this year's new installed capacity to reach the second highest in history, at that time, some of the shares of photovoltaic faucets have begun to gradually rebound. Subsequently, the bidding project was officially released, which opened the prelude to domestic grab in the second half of the year, and the market was boiling again.

"The bidding project has the demand for checking the time of grid connection. For the whole capacity of the whole network built before the end of 2020, the subsidy will be reduced by 0.01 yuan per kilowatt hour per quarter of the year, and it is expected that the project subsidy will not be completed after the two quarter. The project will be connected to the network as far as possible in 2020. Combined with household projects, UHV projects, parity projects and so on, it is expected that the installed capacity of the second half of this year is expected to exceed 30GW. Guotai Junan new energy industry analysis team pointed out.

In fact, the product prices announced by leading enterprises also support the popularity of photovoltaic industry. Not long ago, Tongwei solar official website and Longji's official website released the latest pricing of related products in July.

Among them, the price of Tongwei solar cell is publicized. The latest quotation is flat with last month's price, maintaining polycrystalline battery (Jin Gang line 157mm), price 0.50 yuan / tile, single crystal PERC battery (single / double sided 156.75mm), price 0.78 yuan / watt, single crystal PERC battery (single / double sided 158.75mm and single / double sided 166mm), the price is 0.80 yuan / tile.

The price of monocrystalline silicon wafer in Longji shares is publicized, and the single crystal silicon wafer P M6 (166/223mm) is priced at 2.62 yuan / piece, and the single crystal silicon wafer P (158.75/223mm), the price is 2.53 yuan / piece, which is the same as last month's price.

In addition, from the recently released domestic grid data and export data, the impact of overseas outbreaks on installed capacity is gradually converging.

According to public information, the output of components in May 2020 was 5.97GW, a year-on-year decline of -0.9%, an increase of 9.4% over the same period, and a 1-5 decline in the total export volume of 26.2GW in the 1-5 months, representing a year-on-year decline of 0.2%, indicating that overseas demand remains strong under the influence of the epidemic.

With the gradual control of the overseas epidemic situation, the resumption of work resumed smoothly, many market participants expect that overseas demand will peak in the fourth quarter of this year, and demand is expected to start full recovery at the end of the three quarter. Starting in 2021, the global PV market is expected to return to the fast track of growth.

"The expectations of previous years, the three quarter is the traditional off-season, before the domestic scramble for 630, July and August will be significantly downward, but from the current policy environment and July quotations and so on, it is relatively robust. At present, such as the bidding project announced, photovoltaic wind power consumption index liberalization, all of these logic is to engage in domestic demand, because photovoltaic is the new energy industry, country. The family is willing to encourage more construction. Aforementioned new analyst pointed out.

On the overseas side, the analyst also further analyzed that the impact of overseas epidemic is lower than market expectations.

"PV industry accounted for 70% of external demand and domestic demand accounted for 30%. In April and May, the overseas market was not good, so PV industry prices fell very fiercely. But from the export data, it began to turn better in mid May. This is not to say that overseas demand is obviously improving, but that the impact of overseas epidemic is lower than expected. As for the situation in September, there is no way to judge, nor can we fully consider the stock price, but the four quarter is the peak season for overseas demand.

Stocks release positive signals

Behind the growing expectations of the market, the group of listed companies also frequently released the signal of good fundamentals.

In the evening of June 30th, Follett, one of the largest producers of photovoltaic glass in China, released a notice in 2020. The company pointed out that the net profit of 4.2-4.7 in 2020 was expected to increase by 60.92%-80.08%. It is estimated that the net profit from deduction will be 410 million yuan to 460 million yuan, an increase of 73.73% to 94.92% over the same period last year.

Follett said that the expected increase was due to "benefit from capacity expansion and increased demand for double glass", and sales of PV glass of the company's main products were higher than that of the same period last year. Although the price of PV glass has declined in the second quarter, the average price is higher than that of the same period last year.

On the same day, the Securities Department of Longji securities company also told investors in twenty-first Century that the order of the company's economy has been part of the second half of the year, and it has been signed in succession. Because the domestic bidding project has just been completed, the tender will be followed up, the order may be concentrated, the overseas orders are relatively stable, and it will take a quarter of time to recover. There will be more measurements in the four seasons. At present, the whole overseas business is restored to the level of 60%-70%. Now it is not easy to say that the epidemic will not be repeated, and it will probably return to 85%-90% level by the end of the year.

Tong Wei shares securities department also pointed out: "although the industry has fluctuated, but we have been fully sold, orders have been received next month, the proportion of overseas business is very small."

Aforementioned new analyst also said that from its data on industrial chain research, the photovoltaic industry began to improve gradually in mid May.

"Photovoltaic glass, EVA and silicon will be more reliable, because EVA and PV glass belong to the demand of new energy. The supply of large cycles is slow in supply and longer in production capacity. In the field of silicon, Longji and central technologies are relatively strong, and the industry has relatively high barriers, so their growth rate can be guaranteed." The analyst said.

However, judging from the existing valuation, the analyst also admitted that some enterprises' current valuation has overdrawn the expected performance of this year and a part of next year's performance. "For example, the price earnings ratio of Longji shares is 23-24 times, which basically overestimated the performance growth this year and overdrew part of it next year. However, compared to the game, the valuation of medicine is also very high, and now agencies do not look at valuations.

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