External Crude Oil Callback Superimposed Overseas Epidemic Rebound Polyester Raw Material Running Empty

Market brief

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Last week, during the domestic Dragon Boat Festival, foreign market 08 crude oil contracts were slightly retraced this week, with a drop of 3.39% during the week and a 09 decline in the oil and oil 09 contract. In terms of epidemic situation, overseas mainly in the United States were forced to resume production on condition that conditions were not allowed to resume work, but at the same time, they received the influence of demonstrations and meetings. At the time of the report, the United States accumulated a total of 2637077 confirmed deaths and a total of nearly 130 thousand deaths (source: Wind). Meanwhile, the epidemic in Brazil, Russia, India, Britain and Peru is not optimistic. The total number of confirmed cases in Brazil has reached 131 thousand and 900. Affected by repeated outbreaks and crude oil callbacks, market risk aversion is heating up.

The PTA device changed significantly last week, heating up 2 million 200 thousand tons of Jiangyin Hon bond, 400 thousand tons of Shanghai petrochemical, and 350 thousand tons of Yangzi Petrochemical during the week. Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons of plant load rose to 9 load. At the same time, Hengli line 5 has been put into operation, and the supply of PTA has increased significantly, returning to the tired stock channel. The processing fee is maintained near 500 yuan / ton level. PTA inventories are still at historically high levels, becoming the biggest drag on their price rebound.

In terms of MEG, port inventory was basically the same as that of the previous week at 1 million 404 thousand tons, and the high storage pressure also existed. The loss of coal glycol increased to more than -1000 yuan, which led to the restart of the coal glycol plant.

Downstream polyester links remove polyester filament, but other categories continue to stock up. Terminal market transactions are still in general list. At present, under the backdrop of the crude oil price adjustment superimposed on the spread of overseas epidemic, polyester raw material itself is basically not booming, short term or partial air concussion operation.

Main risk points

1. the progress of the epidemic has led to a sharp decline in downstream demand and the upward compression of raw material profits.

The implementation of 2.OPEC+'s production reduction failed to induce further collapse of the price of crude oil.