This Year, The Scale Of Photovoltaic Bidding Projects Exceeds Expectations, Leading Enterprises "Hear The Wind Dance."

Over the expected 2020 PV bidding scale, the heat of the industrial chain is heating up.

After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the national energy board quickly announced the results of this year's national subsidy bidding for photovoltaic power generation projects. According to the shortlist, 434 projects will be included in the scope of bidding subsidy, with a total scale of 25.97GW. Among them, the common ground power station 25.63GW, distributed project 0.34GW.

Compared with the 20GW data previously widely predicted by the market, this year's final photovoltaic pricing project exceeded the expectation. A senior analyst of the new energy industry told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter that under the positive stimulus, the domestic PV market will start soon. This year, the industry will usher in the peak season in the three or four quarter.

Decline in subsidies, difficult to stop bidding enthusiasm

This year, the domestic PV industry has been much more enthusiastic than the last year.

Statistics show that as of June 15th (declared to date), a total of 22 provinces and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps announced the scale of the total price of the project exceeded 38GW, the total scale of the bidding project is more than 33GW. Among them, a total of 4168 projects to declare photovoltaic power generation national subsidy auction, the total size is about 33.51GW. According to the type of project, the ordinary terrestrial photovoltaic power station is 29.08GW and distributed project 4.44GW. According to the final results, the proportion of ordinary ground photovoltaic power station and distributed project finalists accounted for 89.31% and 7.66% respectively, and the overall shortfall ratio was 77.50%.

In twenty-first Century, economic news reporters found that the total scale of parity and bidding projects in many provinces has exceeded the power grid's newly added PV capacity. In May this year, the national new energy consumption and early warning center issued the 2020 national wind power and photovoltaic capacity announcement shows that, according to the calculation of the first quarter Limited electricity consumption situation, this year, China's wind power and photovoltaic total added space is 85.10GW. Among them, the photovoltaic capacity is 48.45GW. When bidding for projects, the bidding scale of Hebei, Jiangxi, Ningxia and other provinces has exceeded the new PV consumption space of the local power grid, which indicates that the competition of PV bidding projects is fierce this year.

Guosheng securities analysis shows that this year's bidding for photovoltaic projects presents two characteristics: first, it concentrates on ground power stations. The results of this bidding show that the ground power station accounts for 98.7% of the total; second, the concentration of third types of resources is concentrated, and the total capacity of the third types of resource areas is 17.60GW, accounting for 67.8%.

It is worth mentioning that, in the case of subsidised subsidies, the scale of photovoltaic bidding projects this year exceeds that of last year.

In 2019, the scale of the national photovoltaic bidding subsidy was 2 billion 250 million yuan (excluding household use, the same below), corresponding to the scale of 22.78GW for the whole year. This year, although the scale of subsidies has dropped to 1 billion yuan, the scale of bidding for the whole year has increased to 25.97GW, an increase of 13.96% over the same period last year.

Judging from the intensity of subsidies, the weighted average electricity subsidy intensity of this year's bidding project is 0.033 yuan per kilowatt hour, down 49.23% from the same period in 2019. In addition, the minimum subsidy intensity for individual projects is as low as 0.0001 yuan per kilowatt hour.

In response, the aforementioned analysts told reporters in an interview with the economic news reporters in twenty-first Century that the decline in subsidies failed to affect the declaration enthusiasm, indicating that the photovoltaic projects in many parts of the country are gradually getting rid of the dependence on subsidies. This is also the due performance of China's photovoltaic industry in its transition to parity.

And when the scale of the bidding is announced, the completion of this year's photovoltaic bidding project has also become a hot topic in the industry. In this regard, Guosheng Securities said that with the decline in the cost of industrial chain, the current high efficiency PERC component price has dropped to 1.5 yuan /W, bidding economy is strong. Due to the delay in the first quarter, the subsidy will be reduced by 0.01 yuan per kilowatt hour, and the subsidy will be abolished in the two quarter. Considering the low intensity of electric subsidies this year, most domestic projects are expected to be connected in the year.

Demand starts good leading enterprises

The demand for photovoltaic industry in China will be boosted after the scale of "photovoltaic boots" landing this year.

The capital market responded swiftly to the news. In June 29th, the PV market of A shares surged, especially the leading enterprises. The company's stock price has reached a trading limit. The share price of Beijing Express, Longji, jinlang, Qingyuan and Jingke technologies rose by more than 5%. Follett's share price rose by more than 0%.

Aforementioned analysts told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that although the demand for PV industry suffered some impact in the first quarter of this year due to the impact of the epidemic, exports and other data showed that the PV industry is continuing to recover. Combined with this super expected PV bidding project scale data stimulation, the domestic PV industry chain in the second half of this year's boom will further warmer.

Facing the domestic demand that will be launched in the second half of this year, leading enterprises have already prepared for the rainy day. Recently, Longji shares and Tongwei shares two giant photovoltaic companies have declared the prices of products in July unchanged. Among them, the latest silicon wafer price of Longji shares shows that the thickness of monocrystalline silicon P type M6175 m is 166/223mm (166/223mm), the price is 2.62 yuan / piece (RMB, the same below), the monocrystalline silicon chip P type 158.75/223mm 175 m m thickness, the price is 2.53 yuan / piece. The price of Tongwei polycrystalline battery (diamond wire 157mm) is 0.5 yuan / watt. The price of single crystal PERC battery is the same on both sides and the price of 156.75mm is 0.78 yuan / tile, and the sizes of 158.75mm and 166mm are all quoted at 0.8 yuan / tile.

Once the strategy of continuous price reduction was changed, the quotation of leading enterprises' products will be balanced in the background of coming into the peak season.

This year, with the continuous reduction of the PV industry chain, small and medium enterprises in various links have been eliminated. But Tongwei shares, Longji shares, Dongfeng Risheng and Follett and other industrial chain links each head company has started to expand production tide, and continue to clear the old capacity, and further enhance the market concentration.

Although frequent expansion requires production capacity, the ultimate extent of capacity depends on the industry demand. The scale of the bidding project is released on schedule, further validates that the PV demand will achieve steady growth in the era of parity. In view of this, Orient Securities analysis shows that the steady growth of PV demand will be conducive to the capacity planning of leading enterprises, but it also makes it difficult for the whole industry to make short profits in short supply, and the growth and anti risk ability of the leading enterprises are better.

In fact, leading enterprises are constantly becoming the darling of the capital market by virtue of their advantages such as scale, technology, cost and brand, and their market capitalization is constantly refreshing. As of June 29th, Longji shares rose 63.36% over the past year, with a total market value of 152 billion yuan, and Tongwei shares rose 34.47% this year, with a total market value of 74 billion 600 million yuan.

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