One Stone Stirs Up Thousands Of Waves. Can The Polyester Market Take A Turn For The Better?

The "black swan" incident has been continuously fermented, and the demand for chemical products in the global market has shrunk dramatically, overlaying the sharp fluctuations in the crude oil market, and constantly lowering the prices of chemical products, or even losing money.

PX market is also doomed to fail. Last week, some PX manufacturers introduced the device maintenance plan:

A 800 thousand ton PX plant in North China was stopped for maintenance in April 8th, after which the operation load of the device was around 7.

A 750 thousand ton PX plant in North China has been temporarily shut down for a week.

Of course, this is only a beginning. In this low demand situation, we do not rule out that the late stage will bring more PX manufacturers to centralized maintenance.

In March, the PTA device ushered in a wave of upsurge of maintenance, involving nearly 10 million tons of capacity. So what is the reason for the overhaul of the PX plant?

01

PX capacity surge, or will face oversupply.

As the demand for PX increases in the domestic market, and the domestic PX capacity is insufficient, and the operating rate is low, the PX demand gap is bigger. China is the country with the highest demand for PX market worldwide. In recent years, China's import dependence on PX has been on the rise. In 2018, the import dependence of p-xylene in China reached 61%, up 14 percentage points from 2012.

　　 In order to solve the self-sufficiency of PX market, in 2019, with the development of Hengli petrochemical, Sinopec, Hongrun, Hainan refinery, Zhejiang Petrochemical and other large scale refinery and petrochemical plants, the PX market ushered in the concentrated production of capacity, while in 2020, it was estimated that PX had about 4 million 800 thousand tons / year of new investment device. With the continuous production of large scale refinery and petrochemical projects in China, the output of PX has been released more than domestic demand.

02

PX market plummeted, prices and profits low

Since last December, the price of PX has been on the down track, especially under the negative influence of the crude oil slump. The price of PX (FOB Korea) is currently around 462 dollars. It can be said that the price of PX has been in the low position for more than a decade. Falling prices will inevitably lead to a compression of profits. Over the past year, PX's profits have been in a state of loss, and the extent of losses has been widening and fluctuating within a certain range. At present, the profit margin of PX has been reduced to around $76 / ton, while PX profit last year was near $115 / ton.

Under the double blow of the weakening of the environment, the impact of pneumonia and the poor performance of crude oil, profits and prices both fell, overhauled or to a certain extent.

　　 What is the impact of PX on the polyester market?

01

Effective support for PTA price formation

As the direct raw material of PTA, the price of PX has important cost support for PTA. If PX is overcapacity, the price will naturally be restricted. For PTA, the upstream cost is getting loose. Naturally, it can not form effective cost support. To a certain extent, it will inhibit the rise of PTA price. PX device maintenance, capacity constraints, price support, for PTA, can play a cost supporting role.

02

Indirect good PET filament yarn

Polyester filament as an important component of the polyester market, prices have been falling for nearly half a year, breaking through the bottom price. In addition to the shrinkage of demand side, its high inventory and increased capacity, the ups and downs of upstream polyester raw materials market also have an important impact on them. PTA, as one of the most important raw materials of polyester filament, plays an important role in promoting the price of polyester filament. If PX overhaul can be a good price for the PTA market, it will naturally benefit the polyester filament directly and inject "strong heart" into its price.

At present, the weaving market has entered the pattern of no single business, and the polyester market is also accumulating in a large area. In addition to shrinking demand, inventory is one of the most important factors that drag up the upward trend of PTA market. Up to now, PTA social inventory in the vicinity of 2 million 440 thousand tons, terminal demand is low, PTA social inventory level is constantly high. Therefore, the demand of PTA also directly affects the trend of PX market.

　　 At the same time, the market of polyester market is also increasing. From the statistics of China silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated near 33-44 days. The stock of polyester is high, the demand for PTA is reduced naturally, and the stock of PTA keeps accumulating. So for the PX market, polyester demand is slowing down, but PX capacity is still in the form of continuous delivery. Device maintenance may be a better way to raise prices.