Mobile Phone Industry Chain March Demand Restores The Two Quarter Test Has Just Begun

Li Li could never have imagined that he would have been "resting" until last April because of the company's fraudulent crisis last year.

"Because I've been in India before, I don't know how to do that. It's a pity." He was so impressed by the twenty-first Century economic report. Previously, he was the head of a mobile phone industry chain manufacturer in India. Unfortunately, it was not only the development of the company itself, but also the sudden stagnation of the India market.

In March 24th, India Prime Minister Modi announced that the country began to close the city on second days, with all shops and factories shut down. India is precisely the high growth market of Android mobile camps. It is also the second largest smartphone market in the world. The sudden freeze of India market tests the overall planning of Android mobile Internet chain manufacturers in the two quarter.

Fortunately, the biggest intelligent machine market, China has recovered rapidly. After the downturn last year, the domestic industry is showing a good trend. Li Li is also preparing to find new jobs after the Qingming Festival, still in the mobile phone industry chain.

Fang Jing, chief analyst of XinDa electronics, said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that the performance of the electronic industry chain in the first quarter of this year was mainly affected by the insufficient operating rate in February. Instead, the market demand was accelerated in March. "We have solved the problem from the industrial chain, and the order has been very full in March".

He further said that the next demand side impact on the industry may gradually appear in the two quarter, such as sporadic chop list phenomenon. "The first quarter performance is not affected, followed by the trend of overseas epidemic, but I think the whole is relatively optimistic."

First quarter results are booked ahead of schedule.

The first quarter results may be less affected by the epidemic, which has been reflected in some industry chain manufacturers' performance bulletin.

According to the reporter's inspection, Yang Jie technology, Li Xin Precision and GoerTek stock, which have issued performance forecasts, have pointed out that the net profit of the first three months of this year will increase by about 40%-60%, which will be a profitable State.

On the Hong Kong stock market, Shun Yu optical's latest shipments in February also showed that the shipment of two categories of mobile phone lenses and cell phone camera modules increased by 48% and 54.6% compared to the same period last year, but the two ones decreased by 11.1% and 13.7% respectively.

To a certain extent, this is related to the characteristics of 2019. Last year, the industry was generally defined as the year of "sales sink". In 2020, it will carry the replacement cycle, 5G business and other factors, and will welcome the industry to rise.

The first quarter is also the relatively low season of the mobile phone industry chain. The order of the industry chain has been basically completed before the new year.

In an interview with the media, Paul Liu, vice president of OPPO, explained: "before the Spring Festival, we began to integrate the entire supply chain. Basically, at the beginning of the epidemic, we did a lot of work, and the epidemic situation could backup the supply chain to his area in time."

This seems to be quite different from the phenomenon of HUAWEI's massive hack. Fang Fang explained to reporters that the reasons for the list were mainly divided into three categories: one is high inventory, the second is the adjustment of single product planning, and the third is the lack of demand under the influence of the epidemic.

"HUAWEI's early chopping is due to high inventory, but with the lack of operating rate under the epidemic situation, instead, the high inventory brand has more advantages and can seize more market." Fang qui further pointed out that HUAWEI's list was quickly stopped.

Apple has lost its stock. He told reporters that Apple's overall inventory cycle is 10 days, once the lack of operating rate is easy to be out of stock, anti risk ability is relatively weak, this is the previous Apple China announced that part of the iPhone, iPad and MacBook batch purchase restrictions.

With the gradual resumption of domestic production, the supply chain orders increased suddenly, ensuring the performance support of the supply chain in March.

LIAN electronics executives in recent exchanges with investors, said, "the epidemic has not affected, there is no hack, but because of the 2 and March impact, customer demand plus."

"According to our research in the industry chain, the domestic mobile phone market in March has been restored to positive growth, which will greatly boost the industry chain." Fang Jing pointed out that the impact of the epidemic is actually slow, so the industry chain manufacturers have been able to cope with the deployment after experiencing many unexpected external changes last year.

Key two quarter

If inventory is the key to supporting first quarter performance, then the pressure of demand side will become the core of the two quarter's performance, and this is already emerging in the emerging growth market.

A person in charge of the mobile phone channel in India told the twenty-first Century business reporter that the demand for India mobile phone market has basically frozen. A number of industry chain members have pointed out to reporters that the 21 day "state closure" plan put forward by India officials is relatively pessimistic.

The African market that the head manufacturers have gathered in recent two years is also facing a similar situation -- suspension, closure of ports and declaration of blockade by some countries. A long time local channel operator told reporters, "in the first half of the year, whether inventory or all the release plans will be disrupted."

"At present, we can only see signs of demand side cutting, but next we need to see the evolution of the epidemic." Fang Jing pointed out that, at present, the European and India markets are facing the pressure of anti epidemic. The phenomenon of chopping will not be surprising. "India is the basic market for domestic Android manufacturers in overseas markets, so once the market is affected, it will have a certain impact on the Android industry chain." He said.

Fang Jing believes that there will be some adjustment in the two quarter, but from the perspective of "global chess", the research institutions generally predict that there will be a decline of about 10% this year, that is, the global demand will be changed. Therefore, as long as a good response can be made, it will be better in the long run.

"The two quarter is likely to be a relatively poor performance this year, which has been widely recognized in the industry. With the gradual improvement of the domestic market, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has made some progress, and the market will recover better. Fang Jing stressed that the real concern is that once the order is adjusted, if the demand is restored, can the capacity be kept up in time. For example, after the two quarter of the order adjustment, can we be ready for the three quarter's peak season in time.

He further pointed out that in this context, industry chain manufacturers need to track the demand of overseas manufacturers in a more frequent way, and make timely adjustments to the overseas models. "Therefore, it will be more prudent for certain models to be stocked, so as to avoid producing dull materials."

Today, the domestic supply chain has become the focus of support. Strategy Analytics wireless smart phone strategy service director sui qian pointed out that in recent years, 70% of the world's smart phones are actually manufactured in China.

"I believe that after last year's external changes in the washing of business operators, enterprises already have certain experience in dealing with sudden changes in the industry. Personally, I think this year's business will be more comfortable and not too worried. " Fang Jing pointed out.

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