Can Smartphone Sell? Consumer Electronics Listed Companies "Epidemic Exams" Attack

[financial report]

With the gradual reduction of downstream demand to the upstream, the consumer electronics industry will undergo a deep adjustment due to the outbreak in the two quarter.

The spread of the global epidemic has made technology stocks, which are already at a high level, become the worst hit areas. Especially for the consumer electronics with "two heads out", with the global market demand and supply chain difficult to predict changes, the impact is gradually changing from the market demand side to the supply side.

Recently, some consumer electronics stocks announced a quarterly report in 2020, and several of them were delighted with their worries: GoerTek shares, Chang Ying precision, Jingyan technology and other achievements increased significantly, while shubedd, intelligent power and Han Yu Group declined.

Whatever the performance of the first quarter, the "epidemic" impact has become the common keyword in the company's performance forecast. The industry believes that with the gradual reduction of downstream demand to the upstream, the consumer electronics industry will also be adjusted in depth in the two quarter.

A more obvious signal is that public reports show that Apple has lowered its first quarter performance target in 2020; CICC has recently lowered its forecast for global smartphone shipments, which is expected to decline by 7% year-on-year in 2020.

The consumer electronics industry's epidemic test seems to be just beginning.

One quarterly signal

As of April 1st, the consumer electronics industry announced that there were not many companies in the first quarter earnings forecast, but it was enough to see some signs.

He said that in the first quarter of 2020, net profit of 5 million -800 yuan was achieved, down by 56.14%-72.59% compared with the same period last year. Mainly due to the new coronavirus epidemic, the industrial chain reemployment delay, has a certain negative impact on the company's production and operation.

Shubde is mainly engaged in the production of wireless communication terminal antenna. Its products are used in mobile phones, wearable devices, computers and other fields, and is one of HUAWEI suppliers. "At present, the company's capacity has been fully restored, believing that the epidemic is temporary, and it is optimistic about the development of the consumer electronics industry in the long run." In April 1st, people from the Ministry of securities told reporters.

Smart power is also a typical consumer electronics concept unit, engaging in R & D, production and sales of consumer electronics functional devices such as mobile phones. The first quarter realized a profit of 35 million yuan -4300 million yuan, down 5.40%-23.00% compared to the same period.

In the performance briefing, Fang Jixin, deputy general manager of Chi power, said that the company has resumed its normal production and operation. Due to the reasons for staff reemployment and delay, the company will have a certain impact on the production and operation in the first quarter, but it has little impact on the whole year.

Coincidentally, the tricyclic group, which mainly provides electronic ceramic components for downstream electronic products, has also declined in performance. The first quarter achieved a profit of 160 million -1.9 billion yuan, down 15%-30% compared with the same period last year, mainly affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the company's product sales declined.

Judging from the above situation, the decline of some consumer electronics shares in the first quarter was mainly due to the delay in the resumption of work.

However, some companies' performance has gone up. For example, the first quarter profit of Jingyan technology has reached 14 million -1800 yuan, which has turned losses into profits. The net profit of Saint bond has increased by 70%-100% compared with the same period last year, and sales volume of products has increased significantly.

In the field of Electroacoustics, GoerTek shares made a profit of 280 million yuan -3.2 billion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 40%-60% compared with the same period last year. Mainly due to the company's intelligent wireless headset products sales revenue growth, profitability improved.

As for why the growth of the counter trend can be achieved under the disturbance of the epidemic situation, GoerTek securities and Securities Department said that this is mainly due to the product structure factors of the company. "The wireless earphone product of the company layout is the fastest growing subdivision area in recent years," (the growth of performance) is determined by the characteristics of the industry.

As for the order changes that may be brought by overseas epidemic, the person said that at least there is no big impact.

However, some intriguing signals are emerging. Precision manufacturing leading enterprises have not released Quarterly Bulletin yet. However, recent investors' research notes show that inventory of raw materials is increasing substantially in the first quarter.

"The impact of the epidemic in the first quarter will be shown as an increase in management fees and inventories. First, raw material inventory is higher than safety stock. The company's previous safety stock up to 2 weeks of material demand, now is 4-8 weeks. For example, some of the glue produced by the company comes from the United States. In order to reduce the potential risks and effects under the control of more flights, the company will stock the sensitive materials for 8 weeks, and other materials will be stocked for 4 weeks. Second, based on increased investment in personnel management, the company's management fees and manufacturing costs are relatively higher. The company pays more than normal wages before and after the Spring Festival to meet supply needs. " Precise representation of information.

Two quarter results or pressure

Let the bullets fly for a while. The differentiation of industry performance in the first quarter has revealed some dangerous signals, and the reduction of downstream demand is almost certain.

CICC has recently lowered the forecast of global smart phone shipments. "We expect global smartphone shipments to drop by 7% over the same period of 2020, the 2 quarter of which affected domestic and overseas epidemics, and the global shipments fell to 26% in the 4 quarter of 2020."

"The impact of the epidemic on performance is mainly reflected in the two quarter. Basically, the order of consumer electronics companies in March this year has been fixed in the fourth quarter of last year, and the impact of demand side on consumer electronics is lagging behind." In April 1st, a consumer electronics analyst told reporters, "GoerTek, news is doing upstream. In February, sales of mobile phones declined, and sales in March were also expected. Under such circumstances, downstream mobile phone factories are bound to reduce upstream orders. As far as I know, HUAWEI and apple have already chopped orders. "

"From the consumer electronics industry as a whole, the short-term impact of the epidemic is controllable, but in the long run, the core components of consumer electronics come from overseas and the consumer market is also in developed countries in Europe and the United States. If the epidemic continues for a long time, it will have an adverse impact on the industry." The securities and futures Department of GoerTek said frankly.

In twenty-first Century, the business reporter learned that more than 90% of GoerTek's suppliers were concentrated in the country, with suppliers in Japan and Korea accounted for about 5%, and the number of suppliers in Europe and America was relatively small, which was less affected by overseas epidemic. However, the proportion of overseas businesses accounted for 80% in 2018.

This is also a common concern of the market. Recently, investors have questioned the company on the interactive platform. GoerTek shares responded that "taking into account the spread of the epidemic in the global, may affect the terminal demand, the company is closely watching, and together with customers to assess the impact of the epidemic on the company's product lines, make a difference plan."

It is expected that if the epidemic spreads and affects the second quarter, the main impact may be on the mobile phone end. The company's mobile phone revenue accounts for 10%-15%. The demand for computers and tablets is relatively stable, among which the tablet has an upward trend. In addition, the headphone product capacity is at the peak of history.

But in the medium to long term, the impact of the epidemic is still very uncertain.

"At present, the company has not received the information of demand adjustment, but demand is still affected in the short term. At present, the development trend of overseas epidemic is rather chaotic. It is too early to define the proportions affected. Precise representation of information.

Panic has spread on investors. On several companies' interactive platforms, high frequency questions were raised about the impact of overseas epidemic. The consumer electronics leading stock, such as blue technology, intelligent manufacturing, and so on, has "stabilized the military spirit" on the interactive platform, saying that the company has sufficient orders, production and sales are booming, and there is no customer's adjustment of orders.

With the opening of the two quarter, the impact of overseas epidemic will gradually surfaced, which is the beginning of the test of consumer electronics listed companies.

?