When Will Cotton Price Rebound After The Turn In? Does Yarn Lack A Trading Atmosphere, Looking Out Of The Downturn, May Or June?

Market brief

In March 31st, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. planned to purchase 20000 tons of Xinjiang cotton, and the actual turnover was 4440 tons, with a turnover rate of 22.2%. The average price was 11550 yuan / ton, of which 4440 tons were in the mainland bank. From December 2nd to March 31st, the total turnover of Xinjiang cotton reached 371560 tons, of which 12480 tons were accumulated in the Xinjiang warehouse, and 359080 tons in the mainland stock market. A total of 103 enterprises were auctions. In the year of 2019/20, the round of cotton storage was officially closed. The total turnover was 371 thousand and 600 tons, slightly lower than the target volume of 500 thousand tons. However, because of the impact of the epidemic, the demand for the industrial chain has declined significantly, and the national cotton stocks are still at a relatively low level. The market has great expectations for the delayed arrival of the cotton reserves and will wait for the guidance of the policy information.

Zheng cotton opened up concussion, the main contract shift to 09 contracts, a small increase, expected short-term Zheng cotton shock finishing may still fall. Spot cotton prices rose slightly, terminal demand continued to be weak, domestic demand resumed slowly, foreign trade orders were insufficient, downstream demand was weak, cotton price trend was hard to find support. At present, the lint market price and the processing cost of the ginning plant were upside down, and the cotton mill's spot sale was basically stopped. The lower part of the cotton mill started to slow down production or vacation in April because of the lack of orders, and the short-term downstream demand was worried. The contradiction between oversupply and oversupply is obvious, and the cotton market is slack and light. It is expected that spot cotton prices will rise and fall, and the short-term will remain low.

Acrylonitrile shock finishing, the recent installation maintenance and production plan coexist, the overall supply side is still expected to be relaxed, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the terminal orders are not expected to be good, dragging down the downstream factory operators mentality, downstream northwestern polyacrylonitrile factory plans to overhaul, acrylonitrile demand is expected to decrease, supply and demand fundamentals are hard to say, plus acrylonitrile cost support still has weakened expectations. Acrylonitrile price is expected to continue weak downward. Acrylic fiber prices continue to be stable, terminal demand recovery is slow, acrylonitrile plant plant load of 5-7, the overall prosperity of the industry in general, downstream factory finished product inventory accumulation, and the industry is optimistic about the market outlook is expected to be limited, the market continues to be moderate, and raw materials acrylonitrile prices continue to decline, the acrylic market to see the obvious atmosphere, northeastern Dachang overhaul in April, the overall supply is expected to reduce. However, there is still industry inventory to be digested, and the cost of acrylic fiber support is insufficient. It is estimated that the price of acrylic fiber will still have downward expectations in April.

In March, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continued to improve, and the production and living order was steadily restored. China's purchasing managers' index fell sharply last month, with the manufacturing industry PMI rising 52%, up 16.3 percentage points from last month. The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month; the composite PMI output index was 53%, up 24.1 percentage points from last month. In March, the purchasing managers' index rose to a critical point above the rebound after the sharp decline in February. More reflecting that more than half of the survey enterprises have resumed their work and resumed production, which has improved since last month, and can not mean that China's economic operation has returned to normal level. As of March 25th, the rate of resumption of large and medium-sized enterprises was 96.6% in the national purchasing managers survey enterprises, up 17.7 percentage points from the February survey results.

In March 30th, the textile industry development and risk management forum was held in Shandong Province in 2020. This forum attracted 195 enterprises to participate in the conference. There were more than 270 participants in the network entry, and the participating enterprises covered 16 cities in the province. The theme of this forum is "combating diseases, transforming risks, transforming and upgrading, and seeking common development". We invite the leaders of two level business systems in Shandong, the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and industry experts, the China wind power control experts, the key cooperative banks financial experts, the international legal experts, the textile and garment industry experts and senior research experts to analyze and fight together. Under the epidemic situation, we should share the latest research results in the industry, explore the transformation and upgrading of the textile industry and overseas development trends, and help the textile enterprises in the province to use a series of supportive policies for foreign trade and policy instruments.

On the morning of March 30th, the Guyuan Ningxia economic development zone held the foundation laying ceremony of the 200 thousand ingot textile project of Ningchuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Ningxia Ningchuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. 200 thousand spindles textile project is the key investment project of the municipal business investment promotion bureau in 2019. The total area of the project is 198.37 mu (the first phase covers an area of 119.32 mu, and the second phase covers 79.05 mu). The total estimated investment of the project is 1 billion 360 million. In 2020, a 100 thousand ingot 680 million yuan investment was completed and put into operation in 2021. The project landed in Guyuan, and opened a new journey for the friendly cooperation between the two cities in Jiangjiang. This indicates that Guyuan has taken a solid step in the development of modern textile and garment industry. After the project is completed and put into operation, it can achieve an annual output value of 1 billion yuan, directly solve the employment of more than 1500 people, and promote the development of downstream industries such as weaving and garment processing, and effectively promote the industry's accurate poverty alleviation and high-quality development to a new level.

According to the recommendation of each unit, the municipal evaluation and leadership group screened and evaluated the advanced collectives and advanced individuals emerging from the reform and innovation of "rich and powerful Binzhou" construction and institutional mechanism in 2019, according to the principle of outstanding achievements and excellent selection. Shandong Wei Qiao business group and Wei Qiao textile Limited by Share Ltd were selected.

The annual production of 80 thousand tons of knitted fabric industry demonstration garden in Zhongyuan high tech Industrial Development Zone, Anyang, is invested by CITIC environmental printing and dyeing and environmental protection Comprehensive Development Co., Ltd., with 35.33 hectares of land and 2 billion 300 million yuan investment. The main construction is 1 thermal power plants (18 MW), 1 sewage treatment plants (30 thousand tons / day) and 1 water treatment plants (30 thousand tons / day). After the completion of the project, the annual output value will be 4 billion 500 million yuan, and the tax revenue will be 120 million yuan, and more than 2400 people will be employed. At present, the main body of the sewage treatment plant and water treatment plant has been completed, and the workshops are being backfilled. It is expected that in June this year, the sewage treatment plant and water treatment plant will complete the installation and commissioning of the equipment, and will have the conditions of entry in September.

In March 31st, the reporter learned from the Changzhou customs that 1000 tons of cotton from Australia arrived at Changzhou port after cross ocean transportation, and will be used for the first single textile production after the resumption of the black peony group of Changzhou listed company. In order to speed up the pace of recovery, Nanjing customs's Changzhou customs office sent the staff to the warehouse for checking, sampling and quarantine inspection at the first time. Since the resumption of work, the Changzhou customs has imported nearly two thousand tons of cotton for inspection and quarantine. The Black Peony (Group) Limited by Share Ltd is a listed company integrating research, production and trade in Changzhou. As the leader of denim industry, the company has annual production capacity of about 5000 to 60 million meters, and imports more than 10 thousand tons of raw material per year.

Jiangsu Yue Da Investment Limited by Share Ltd recently released its 2019 annual report. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 2 billion 580 million yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the same period, and a net profit of 107 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 32.5% over the same period, and a basic earnings per share of 0.13 yuan. From the perspective of business structure, "cotton yarn" is the main source of business revenue. Specifically, "cotton yarn" business income was 700 million, revenue accounted for 28.8%, gross margin was 12.9%, during the reporting period, the company's cotton yarn, grey cloth and bedding business income totaled 1 billion 120 million yuan, compared with the same period last year's 994 million yuan further growth.

During the new crown pneumonia outbreak, the demand for masks as epidemic prevention products increased sharply, and its core material melt spray cloth became more and more popular. From the SASAC of the State Council, the central enterprises have accelerated the layout of the melt spraying cloth and the output has increased rapidly in recent days. At present, the daily supply of the central enterprises has reached 42.5 tons, and it has doubled in half a month. In April, 20 new production lines, such as Sinopec, PetroChina and other enterprises, will be produced in succession. At that time, the capacity of the central enterprises will be increased to more than 70 tons per day.

Tajikistan Avesta news agency Dushanbe reported on March 30th that according to statistics, the industrial output value of the tower textile and sewing department increased by 50% in the first two months of this year, mainly due to the increase of socks, lint and cotton yarn. Over the same period, exports of textile raw materials and textiles increased by nearly US $45 million, an increase of 60.1%. Of them, lint exports amounted to US $31 million 600 thousand (accounting for over 70%), an increase of 67.4%. The import volume of textile raw materials and textiles was about US $11 million 100 thousand, an increase of 57.9%.

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