New Crown Impact On Supply And Demand, But Accelerate The Application Of Landing 5G Development Of Dangerous Organic

Global "war epidemic"

The industry was originally inclined to believe that 2020 would be the year when 5G launched on a large scale, although it was once called "the first year of 5G" in 2019 because it exceeded expectations. Many manufacturers have been active layout in 2020, looking forward to the success in the first wave of 5G shipments.

However, the sudden outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia seems to upset this rhythm. The "shock" may include the cancellation of the 2020 world mobile communication conference (MWC), which was originally regarded as an important stage by the manufacturers who are fighting for 5G.

The more critical impact is on the industrial chain and market demand. Analysis of the 5G network devices and terminals, from the perspective of supply or demand, the development of 5G in 2020 may face some crisis. Eric Smith, research and service director of Strategy Analytics interconnect computing industry, recently said in the analysis that the epidemic will be a big blow to the development of mobile industry in 2020. "As the 5G network deployment is expanding globally, this year is very important for the adoption of 5G."

But this is not absolute. For example, Yang Chaobin, President of HUAWEI 5G product line, said in an interview last week in London that HUAWEI's 5G equipment is currently produced by HUAWEI's own factory, while HUAWEI's own factories and major suppliers have resumed production, and the epidemic will not affect HUAWEI 5G equipment to deliver goods to customers.

There are also opportunities under the "crisis". The epidemic provides space for 5G telemedicine, mobile e-commerce, online office and education. This accelerates the change of user habits and may stimulate more 5G applications. Application and ecology are the key to the future development of 5G.

China is currently one of the fastest growing 5G markets in the world. Gan Jun photo

5G cold?

From the perspective of mobile phones, the epidemic has made the Chinese market somewhat unprepared. Manufacturers previously focused on MWC before and after the launch of new products can not be convened or changed to online, offline channels have basically stopped. In addition, some manufacturers also need to cope with the challenges of factory production and supply chains.

The industry analyst Omdia (the original Informa Tech research department merged with IHS Markit technology research department) gave a more pessimistic expectation: "5G is in crisis". The agency believes that the biggest adverse effect of the epidemic is the weakening of China's domestic market demand, and if the epidemic continues, the weakening of demand will further expand to other markets.

China is currently one of the fastest growing 5G markets in the world. For example, Counterpoint Research, an industry analyst, recently reported that sales of 5G mobile phones in China accounted for 46% of the global 5G smartphone shipments in 2019.

The agency had previously believed that China's smart phone market has begun to pick up in the second half of 2019 and is expected to rebound in 2020, driven by two factors, the active online market and 5G business. Due to the recent epidemic, it has downgraded 50% of China's smart phone's offline sales volume in the latest update analysis, and reduced the overall sales forecast by 20% in the first quarter.

Omdia analyst Jusy Hong also recently returned to Dow Jones news website MarketWatch, saying that China will play an important role in the 5G era, whether from supply or demand. However, the "new coronavirus epidemic" will slow down the production of network devices and terminals. In addition, the epidemic will also inhibit the development of the local economy, which will reduce the demand for smart phones in the Chinese market.

In response to the twenty-first Century economic report, Xie Yushan, an analyst at Ji Bang consulting, said that in addition to the weakening of consumer demand, the policy of postponed return to work and crowd control may also have an impact on output due to the large demand for manpower in the smart phone industry.

However, Fang Jing, chief analyst of XinDa's securities and electronics industry, told reporters in an economic report twenty-first Century that the epidemic will have some impact on 5G in the short term, but it has little impact in the medium to long term.

Fang Jing believes that the sales volume of mobile phones will be affected in 2020, especially in the domestic market. "Before the outbreak, we expect the Chinese mobile phone market to sell 350 million units. It may be down to 3.15-3.2 billion now. "

Although there are some more pessimistic forecasts in the market, Fang Jing pointed out that the terminal data he traced was not so bad. "During the lunar new year, offline sales fell by 70% over the same period last year. But since the resumption of work, it has been significantly warmer. He pointed out that the decline began to rise to 40% at the beginning of the resumption of work, and now it has reached 30%.

"The impact of the epidemic is rapidly weakening." He said that if the next decline can continue to pick up, to around 20%, the 2020 mobile phone market sales expectations will be correspondingly raised. "Instead, we need to worry more about overseas markets." Fang Jing said that because of its high added value, the European and American markets have been the focus of the layout of domestic mobile phone manufacturers.

"Demand will not be suppressed, it will only be postponed." Fang Jing said that consumers may postpone the replacement due to "more than one thing" during the epidemic, but after the end of the epidemic, there will still be impulses to consumption. It is expected that mobile phone sales will also have a better performance. "Although the decline in sales volume in 1 and February is more severe, this is temporary, and I think it has little impact."

From the perspective of the base station, the impact of the epidemic on 5G deployment is mainly determined by the duration of the epidemic. Previously, according to the Securities Times report, only through China's tendering and procurement network statistics, from January 31st to February 5th, in Gansu, Jiangxi, Anhui, Guangxi and other places, there were at least 6 5G projects issued postponed tender notice.

Yang Guang, director of strategic services of Strategy Analytics wireless operator, said in reply to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that although the current 5G construction market development has been suspended, it is expected to recover quickly after the outbreak subsided. He believes that if the epidemic can be as optimistic as expected, in the near future peaked and gradually stabilized in April, the impact will not be too great throughout the year; the number of Chinese 5G base stations is still expected to reach the previous estimate (600 thousand -80 million stations) on the upper level.

But Yang Guang also said that if the epidemic continues and spread, it will challenge China and the global 5G deployment. He pointed out that nowadays, the mobile communication industry chain has been highly globalized, and even a large proportion of foreign suppliers are located in China. The epidemic will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, which will have a serious impact on the development of 5G.

"Danger" has "machine" application acceleration.

Previously, the lack of enough new application scenarios was often one of the reasons for 5G skeptics. Some applications during the outbreak are showing the potential of 5G. For example, in February 20th, West China Hospital of Sichuan University in Chengdu conducted a multidisciplinary consultation with 5G video on critically ill patients with new crown pneumonia. 5G supported the Wuhan medical team and the experts in the rear area for "zero delay" to complete the consultation.

In addition, online and mobile applications during the epidemic period may be conducive to the faster development and landing of new generation technology. One interviewee said the epidemic had clearly changed the habits of many users. Usually, the formation of these user habits may take several years, and now may only take a long vacation.

Meng Pu, chairman of China's Qualcomm, also said in a recent reply to the text of the twenty-first Century economic report that although the epidemic will bring some short-term uncertainties to the economic development, the danger will be organic. Meng Pu believes that the empowerment of 5G technology can promote further upgrading and development of some new economic formats, including but not limited to mobile electricity providers, unmanned retail, virtual social networking, online entertainment, Internet hospitals, knowledge payment, distance education, network office, industrial robots, smart cities (including traffic management, emergency preparedness, logistics supply chain, population data, society). Governance).

Yang Guang also pointed out that affected by the epidemic, the vertical industry's demand for 5G may be greatly improved, which may promote 5G to enter the industry market at a faster pace, and help expand the market space of 5G.

Xie Yushan's view provided a supplement. She believed that the impact of the epidemic brought about a need for video conferencing, telemedicine and telecommuting. In order to reduce staff contacts, most companies choose flexible office and online office to reduce staff mobility, and various cloud conferencing services provide more scenarios for 5G applications.

In spite of the factors such as the delay in upstream resumption, the delay in the operation of operators, or other factors, it will lead to a short-term slowdown in the construction of 5G, but the long-term development of 5G construction and industry is still upward trend. She believes that the total amount of tendering and the scale of construction will continue to be laid down, but the time will be delayed. "It is expected that in the second half of this year, operators will build and open more 5G base stations, because the demand for main equipment, RF antennas and other hardware is still there."

From the smartphone market, although the whole situation is cold due to the epidemic, the momentum of 5G has been extended. CICC recently pointed out in a research report that in January 2020, when domestic smart phone shipments dropped by 36.6% over the same period last year, 5G mobile phones increased 8.5 percentage points to 26.3% in the volume of shipments and 0.9% to 5 million 465 thousand shipments of 5G mobile phones.

Qualcomm said earlier in the earnings call conference, taking into account the impact of the epidemic on China's smart phone market, the second quarter earnings per share expected lower limit of 5 cents. However, Qualcomm CEO Steve Molenkov said at the time that if there were problems such as supply chain in China, the company would be able to get support from other regions. Qualcomm did not adjust the 5G mobile phone shipments expected in 2020 due to the epidemic.

In a February 26th press conference, moroncov further indicated that although the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is bringing some challenges, the development of the whole mobile ecosystem remains strong, and there are many new developments worth discussing and celebrating.

On the same occasion, the president of the Qualcomm Office, Amon, said that in 2019, more than 50 operators in more than 20 countries had launched 5G commercial services, and more than 345 operators were investing in 5G network deployment. By 2023, the number of global 5G connections is expected to exceed 1 billion, which is 2 years faster than that of 4G, and by 2025, the number of 5G connections is expected to reach nearly 3 billion, accounting for the total global connection. 30% of the number.

Previously, IHS Markit, a market consultancy, reported in 2019 that by 2035, 5G is expected to create an economic output of US $13 trillion and 200 billion, an increase of 1 trillion US dollars compared with the beginning of 2017.

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