Demand For New Crown Post Postponed Part Of The Housing Chain Gold Chain Pressure

Before the Spring Festival, an internal notice of Hengda Group was widely circulated. Hengda asked for 18 days' holiday until the Lantern Festival (February 8th). This practice is admirable.

In February 2nd, Hengda employees were notified of the epidemic of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus. The holiday was extended to February 16th for a total of 25 days. Thousands of projects and sales offices of the group are not allowed to start and open before February 20th.

Not only Hengda, but now the mainstream housing companies have basically closed their sales offices, resulting in very little sales in the past week.

The Spring Festival is a low season for real estate sales, but due to the epidemic, sales of real estate seem to be frozen during the Spring Festival of 2020. A number of agencies expect the freezing period to last until the end of February and even March. Housing enterprises look forward to the start of the "little spring" may be wasted. In the face of the great environmental changes of Wuhan's "closed city" and the whole nation's "home epidemic prevention", the Chinese real estate market has also suffered unprecedented pressure.

At present, the annual sales volume of China's real estate has reached 16 trillion yuan, which is 20 times that of less than 800 billion yuan in 2003. At the same time, compared to the two periods, the development stage of the real estate market is totally different. Therefore, the impact of the epidemic on real estate is far from the SARS epidemic in 2003.

Little spring can hardly be expected.

As the third largest developer in the country, the main business of Hengda Group is almost completely suspended.

Before the Spring Festival, Hengda in Tianjin, Hefei and many other new sites just opened for sale, which could have taken a wave of "home buying" tide, but now it can not be realized. In addition to the extension of the holiday, all the meetings, such as the suspension of work, the closing of the sales office, the annual work conference originally scheduled for from February 9th to 12th, were cancelled.

From the urban perspective, the property market in Wuhan, the most serious epidemic, has stopped. According to the information of Wuhan Housing Authority, a total of 12 pre-sale certificates were added from January 11th to January 17th, including 8 residential projects in Wuhan.

In January, Hengda attracted a lot of attention in the cultural tourism city of Wuhan, and the Biguiyuan opened a new project in Xinzhou District of Wuhan city and East Lake high tech Zone. But with the development of the epidemic, by January 25th, many sales offices in Wuhan will be closed, and there will be no specific time to open them again. Except for Wuhan, the situation in other hundred cities of the country is similar.

According to data from Yi Ju Ke and Rui, as of the end of 1, the sales amount of TOP100 Housing enterprises reached 509 billion 705 million, a decrease of nearly 12% compared with the same period last year.

Zhang Huadong, chief analyst at billion Han think tank, pointed out that in January, the growth of sales volume of some housing enterprises was mostly unconfirmed in last December sales. In January 2019, the sales threshold for TOP10 housing companies was 12 billion, compared with 11 billion in the same period this year. Compared with last year, sales of TOP20 also declined.

However, the outbreak began in late January, and the impact of February and even the whole quarter will be even greater from the time when developers closed the sales offices. According to this cycle, the "small spring" market at the beginning of the year will be lost.

"At the moment, it must be the fight against the epidemic rather than the sales." A large housing company in Guangdong said.

The "anti market season" originally expected by the three or four tier cities also ended abruptly. According to the survey report of homecoming in 58 cities and Anju, during the Spring Festival this year, 52.7% of them had intention to return home and surrounding cities, and home buying was the focus of the property market at the end of the year.

Billion Han think tank, that the past three or four lines of cities to return home in the annual sales accounted for no less than 20%, or even to 25%, the annual window period is only one or two times, missed this year will be gone. Because sales offices are generally closed, the impact of second tier cities will be relatively large. By contrast, the base of the first tier cities returning home is relatively low, and the impact will be relatively small.

As a response, developers have opened online sales offices, such as Vanke Foshan company launched online sales a few years ago; Greenland, dragon light and other housing prices also set up online video, VR showroom.

Zhang Huadong believes that the online sales office is not a product of the system, and can not completely replace the traditional sales offices. It has no independent source of traffic. It is just an online viewing platform. It is difficult to promote real buying behavior.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, also pointed out that the effect of online sales is not large. At the very least, it can accumulate part of the customer resources. Moreover, under the current epidemic situation, people seem to have no intention of buying a house.

Demand will be delayed and will not disappear.

The epidemic is coming suddenly. Developers are rushing to deal with it and stop selling. How will the property market go this year?

Referring to the situation after SARS in 2003, some research institutions gave relatively optimistic views. Huatai Securities said that the outbreak in 2020 was in the traditional low season of -2 months in January. Real estate demand will only be postponed. It will not disappear in the short term, but will have limited impact on the whole year.

Haitong Securities analyst Tu Lei Lei is relatively cautious. He pointed out that in 2003, the most severe SARS epidemic in February -4 months, the sales area of commercial housing showed a year-round low point, but as the epidemic was under control, all indicators had bottomed up and eventually stabilized smoothly. Reference to 2003, Tu Lilei believes that the impact of the epidemic on real estate remains to be seen.

Considering that the epidemic area is far more extensive than in 2003, the industry expects that sales in 2 and March will fall by more than 50%.

Zhang Huadong believes that there are great differences between the 2003 and the present in terms of the industry environment, the scale of the industry and the scale of the economy. At that time, the volume of real estate sales was still less than 800 billion, and now it has reached 16 trillion. In 2003, the real estate industry was positioned as a pillar industry with a bright future. Now the market has already gone through the golden age.

It is reported that many housing companies have already taken inventory of cash, inventory and annual plans at hand. The purpose is to assess whether the original supply rhythm and the annual sales plan can be achieved under the impact of the epidemic, while maintaining the balance of cash flow.

"In recent days, most housing companies may have completed this move. Although the future epidemic can be predicted smoothly, we still have some pressure to communicate with the housing companies. " Zhang Huadong revealed at a conference call in February 2nd.

In fact, before the outbreak, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has changed. In addition to Shenzhen, most cities in the country have been offering price promotions. In 2019, some developers used the means of marketing to dissolve them, and the pressure was huge.

Among them, some developers have appeared capital chain problem. At the end of 2019, the strategic cooperation between Shimao high profile and Fu Sheng was actually blood transfusion in the latter.

China Merchants Securities believes that after the outbreak, the "hematopoiesis" ability of strong housing companies such as Vanke, poly, gold and so on, will probably win, both increase and increase profits. However, the mode of earning book money by periodic elasticity may be under the pressure of passive or active contracting.

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